EU news — Vesper

Brazil's coffee shipments raise the odds of a stock rebuild

Coffee futures fell about 3% on the week while Brazil heads for possible record exports, which could start rebuilding ICE certified coffee stocks.

Chinese New Year comes 11 days early, and the cut-off is close

Chinese New Year falls on 6 February 2027, so Asia to Europe cargo has to leave China by mid to late December. November rates look flat.

EU sugar stocks may be 500,000 tonnes higher than reported

Sugar imported under Inward Processing is missing from EU stock figures, and the gap may add at least 500,000 tonnes while the beet crop keeps disappointing.

Euronext wheat falls on Black Sea deal talk while corn climbs

Euronext wheat fell about 8% in two weeks on talk of a Black Sea deal, while Euronext corn rose as MARS cut its EU corn yield forecast again.

SMP hits a GDT high not seen since 2022 while butter slides

SMP rose 3.1% at the Global Dairy Trade auction to its highest since June 2022, while butter fell another 4.7% with stocks high in every exporting region.

WPC80 falls level with MPC85, and reformulation turns around

European WPC80 has fallen to the level of MPC85, removing the price reason to switch to milk protein, and the rest of the whey market is now following it down.

Cheese spot markets jumped while the supply picture stayed heavy

Mozzarella and Gouda tightened in Europe while US blocks rose about 18% in under a week on two recalls, with the cheese fundamentals unchanged underneath.

Coffee falls back below $3 after Brazil's farmers sell

A weaker real lifted the value of a Brazilian grower's coffee by up to 13%, selling followed, and futures gave back roughly 6% to close under $3 a pound.

Lula's win knocked Brazil's currency, and sugar went with it

The real posted its biggest drawdown since 1999 after Lula's re-election, pulling raw sugar nearly 5% lower in a single session with fund length already high.

Record EU broiler supply meets the worst Newcastle year in two decades

EU broiler prices eased for a second week on record production, while Newcastle Disease outbreaks hit a 20-year high and Polish prices fell to a 2021 low.

Chocolate demand splits: Lindt cuts guidance, Nestlé grows volume

Lindt cut its full-year sales guidance and lost its chief executive while Nestlé grew chocolate volumes 5.4%, leaving cocoa demand without one direction.

Middle East oil is flowing again at five times the freight cost

Middle East oil exports are back at pre-war volumes, but a barrel shipped from the Gulf to Asia now costs more than five times what it did before the conflict.

Euronext opens butter and SMP futures on the Vesper index

Euronext began trading butter and SMP futures this week, both settling on the Vesper Price Index, as EU, US and New Zealand milk all came in on expectations.

Asian cartonboard output surges while Western Europe slips again

Cartonboard demand grew globally in July, but the regional picture split three ways, and falling Asian prices suggest the new volume has not found buyers yet.

China's tissue growth is distorting the global demand picture

Western Europe and North America both fell for a third straight month in July while China grew again, and EMGE suspects that volume is filling inventories.

Europe's cocoa grindings turn positive for the first time since 2024

Q3 grindings showed Europe growing again after two years of decline and Asia processing record volumes, but cocoa futures barely reacted to either number.

Nobody wants to be the buyer who stops WPC80 falling

European WPC80 has fallen again, bids and offers are far apart, and almost nothing is trading. Every week of waiting has paid off for buyers so far.

Protein wants more skim while butter has too much fat

Milk is plentiful in every major exporting region, but the fat half and the protein half of that milk are pulling in opposite directions as the year winds down.

Carriers go back through Suez and arrival dates stop lining up

Most big carriers are routing through the Suez Canal again, but not all at once, so some ships arrive early, others late, and terminal congestion follows.

Germany's beet crop comes in a quarter smaller than last season

WVZ now puts German sugar output about 25% below last season, and France is worse, with growers facing a compensation system that mostly will not pay.

Coffee gives back its rally while Brazil's election moves the real

Coffee futures touched $3.08 a pound before closing the week at $2.906, while a surprise first-round result in Brazil's election sent the real sharply higher.

European cheese holds steady while US Cheddar blocks jump

Europe's cheese slide has paused, with Gouda and Mozzarella stable and Cheddar firm, while CME Cheddar blocks rallied from $1.27 to $1.53 a pound in two weeks.

Europe's egg market waits for its autumn lift, with organic still short

European egg prices have barely moved in two weeks and the usual October lift is late, while organic, free-range and extra-large eggs stay hard to find.

France's corn crop is the smallest on record and Euronext noticed

France cut its 2026 corn forecast to the lowest level in ministry records going back to 1980, and Euronext corn jumped to new highs on the back of it.

Funds add to their sugar bets while Brazil's crush slows in the rain

Raw sugar futures are back above 21 US cents a pound for the first time since February 2025, while rain cut Brazil's early September cane crush by a third.

German HVO100 demand is on course to double this year

HVO100 has traded below B7 diesel across Germany since mid-August for the first time, and 2026 consumption is now put at more than double last year's.

Newcastle disease hits a 20-year high while EU chicken prices ease

EU broiler prices fell for a third week to €187/100kg on record supply, while Newcastle disease outbreaks reached 157 this year, the most in two decades.

Coffee breaks above its range while exchange gradings slow

Coffee futures rose 20 cents in two weeks to 292.55 US cents a pound, while the market asks whether enough coffee will be certified for December.

Lindt plans cheaper Christmas chocolate before Q3 grindings

Lindt plans lower prices for Christmas chocolate and again from January, while cocoa futures rose 5.7% in London ahead of Q3 grindings data next week.

The Q4 window closes on heavy butter and scarce SMP

Milk output is holding up better than feared. Butter sellers are short on time for Q4, while SMP buyers who waited face a market with little product left.

US sweet whey reaches a 2026 high while whey proteins fall

Export demand has lifted US sweet whey powder to its highest level of 2026, while WPC80 keeps falling and hard-to-find specs still cost buyers more.

China buys less dairy but more cheese and butter

China's dairy imports fell 3.7% in milk equivalent this year while its cheese and butter buying rose about 18%. See where US suppliers gained ground in Asia.

Cocoa eases while supply risk builds at origin

Cocoa butter is 20% cheaper than a year ago, but supply risk at origin is building. See our cocoa price outlook in the free Chocolate Q4 report.

Europe's short sugar crop puts imports to the test

EU sugar output is set to fall close to 20% and only a fraction of eligible imports would arrive. See where white sugar prices head in our free Q4 outlook.

EU sugar prices stay sticky while France's campaign runs short

France's beet campaign is now estimated at 97 days against a 122-day average, yet EU sugar values have barely reacted. Here are the reasons on the table.

European butter loses ground while the market chases protein

EU butter is 28% cheaper than a year ago while SMP is up 56%. See where European butter prices head in our free EU Dairy Q4 2026 outlook.

European egg prices firm up as the baking season approaches

European egg prices are firming as demand returns and supply lags. See where organic, free range and caged eggs head into 2027 in our free Q4 outlook.

European whey protein splits from milk protein

WPC 80 fell 18.5% in a month while MPC 85 kept climbing. See where European whey protein prices settle in our free Sports Nutrition Q4 outlook.

Rotterdam's ECT terminals now take trucks by time slot only

Trucks now need a booked slot at ECT Delta and Euromax in Rotterdam, while Asia to Europe spot rates fell for a second week during China's Golden Week.

Wheat holds a Black Sea premium into the fourth quarter

Euronext wheat is 31.8% above a year ago with the Black Sea still not shipping normally. See our wheat outlook to Q3 2027 in the free Grains Q4 report.

Black Sea deal hopes pull wheat lower, though a deal looks unlikely

Euronext milling wheat fell to €236/mt as talks on safe Black Sea grain shipping gathered pace, but the parties remain far apart and attacks on ports continue.

Brazil's rains trim this season's sugar and may pad the next

Heavy rain has cut Brazil's sugar output and could leave a record volume of cane in the fields for 2027/28, while drought in India weakens its export outlook.

Cheese prices soften as production outruns demand

US Cheddar and Mozzarella are leading cheese prices lower as production growth outpaces demand, with US cheese stocks up 2.3% on the year in August.

Poland stays the swing factor as EU chicken heads into autumn

EU chicken output is growing but has turned more volatile, with Polish production down about 20% in July, while bird flu and Newcastle disease stay contained.

US eggs turn higher while Europe's rally pauses

US caged white egg prices rose 30.6% in two weeks on stronger demand, while European gains narrowed as record imports cap the caged end of the market.

MPC 85 is setting the floor under a falling WPC80 market

WPC80 prices are falling quickly in Europe and the US as buyers wait, but firm MPC 85 is closing the gap from the other side and limiting how far whey can drop.

Whole milk powder trades below skimmed in New Zealand

New Zealand WMP has slipped below SMP and US NFDM sits above butter, as weak milkfat and firm protein compress the usual spreads across all three dairy regions.

EU poultry prices pull back as bird migration starts

European poultry output is running 4.4% ahead of last year and prices have come off their 2026 highs, just as the autumn bird migration season begins.

Europe's sugar import gap is wider than the quotas can fill

Only about 766,000 tonnes of the EU's 2.4 million tonnes of eligible sugar import volume is likely to arrive at current prices, leaving a real shortfall.

France's corn crop hits a record low condition rating

Only 23% of the French corn crop is rated good or excellent, the lowest in FranceAgriMer's records, while grain prices drifted lower on Black Sea hopes.

Gasoil's 26% climb lifts biodiesel as Hormuz talks stall

Low sulfur gasoil rose 26% to $1,568 a tonne after Strait of Hormuz talks were postponed, pulling FAME and HVO up while used cooking oil eased.

Olive oil hits a three-year low on a crop not yet picked

Spanish extra virgin olive oil has fallen to a three-year low on expectations of a 25% larger crop from Spain, Turkey and Tunisia that starts in October.

Summer heat leaves Europe short of free range eggs

Organic and free range eggs are scarce on European spot markets after the June and July heat waves, while the US wholesale market has found a floor.

Two routes into Rotterdam narrow at the same time

A cracked bridge has halved truck capacity to the Maasvlakte for up to eight weeks, while the Rhine at Kaub fell to 16 centimeters on 21 September.

Western Europe's cartonboard demand gives back May's gain

Apparent cartonboard demand in Western Europe fell 8% in June after an above-trend May, while North America grew 3% and Asian demand rose 14% again.

Cheese is back to normal everywhere except across the Atlantic

European cheese offers have thinned as buyers step back, while new US capacity keeps filling with Mozzarella that has to be exported to clear.

October white sugar delivery lands at a third of last year's

Under 500,000 tonnes were delivered against October London white sugar, against over 1.5 million a year ago, while funds built their largest long since 2023.

Europe enters winter with gas storage 16 points below normal

European gas storage sits at 68% against an 84% seasonal average, TTF is at three-year highs and the ECB has hiked again. What that means into winter.

Ghana's state exporter guides cocoa output down by up to 38%

Ghana's state exporter now guides 2026/27 output to 470,000-620,000 tonnes against 760,000 a year earlier, while forecasters still split on deficit or surplus.

Malaysian palm stocks climb 7.5% while Q4 supply looks thinner

August MPOB data put Malaysian palm stocks up 7.5% at 2.82 mmt and BMD prices eased, but the Q4 view is tighter. Rapeseed sowing is the nearer European risk.

Fewer pounds, more dollars in US milk powder exports

US NFDM and SMP exports fell 6.3% in January to July while their value rose 7.9%. Production is climbing, but the product mix is turning toward home.

Cocoa drops 12% in a week short on fundamental news

ICE Europe fell 12% and ICE US 11% on little fresh input, while Ghana's proposed farmgate price sits around 75% above the Ivorian level for the new season.

Indonesia confirms B50; Vesper sees 1 mmt of extra demand

Full B50 would lift palm oil going into Indonesian biofuels by 2.4 million tonnes. Vesper's estimate for growth beyond B40 without the full step is 1 million.

Milkfat keeps building stock while milk protein tightens

Milkfat is still stock-building across all three regions while producers divert milk away from SMP, and US NFDM disappearance runs 30% above last year.

WPC80's standoff starts to break, and MPC 85 takes the lead

Buyers have stopped committing on WPC80 and offers are sliding, while MPC 85 is effectively sold out for the rest of the year across Europe, the US and NZ.

One beet belt, two harvests: EU sugar pricing turns uneven

France may lift 65 to 70 tonnes of beet a hectare against 90 last season, while Belgian yields hold near 90. Some producers have pulled their offers.

The EU protein premium is now twice what a shipment needs

EU MPC 85 trades 29% above the US benchmark and WPC80 14% above it, against break-even premiums of roughly 5% and 6% once duty and freight are paid.

Black Sea deadlock lifts wheat, corn and barley

MATIF wheat and corn climbed again as Black Sea talks stalled and Egypt's wheat arrivals fell 75% year-on-year. Vesper's Q3 view stays sideways to up.

Brazilian selling pulls coffee back toward $3

December coffee fell 9.8 cents to 311.50 US cents per pound as Brazilian exporters stepped up hedging. Sucafina sees support near $3 per pound.

Cheese prices rise in Europe, fall everywhere else

European cheese offers are moving up on tighter milk, while US and New Zealand Cheddar keeps falling. The widening spread is a problem for EU exports.

Europe's certified eggs are being reserved for the shelf

European egg prices have risen for a fourth week, with barn eggs up 7.2% in a fortnight, and processors are the first buyers being crowded out.

India's duty-free sugar imports lose their appeal

India approved 1 MMT of duty-free raw sugar imports, but mills may take only half of it. EU output is set to fall almost 20% as drought hits beet yields.

The audit ends a day after Brazil loses EU poultry access

New EU antimicrobial rules took effect on 3 September and the audit of Brazilian producers finished on the 4th. Brussels has set no timeline to restore access.

Coffee rallies again while Arabica stays in surplus

December coffee finished at $3.4165/lb after a 23.75 cent weekly gain. The market agrees Arabica is in surplus, so the rally is about something else.

Deferred palm oil contracts price in an El Nino loss

GAPKI says an extreme El Nino could cut Indonesian palm oil output by up to 3 million tonnes next season. The futures curve is already splitting on it.

UCO climbs 19% while Hormuz traffic sits near zero

UCO firmed 18.7% and the biodiesel complex followed, while Hormuz transits fell to zero and German HVO demand more than quadrupled year on year.

Soybean oil drops on EPA biofuel doubts; rapeseed follows

CBOT soybean oil fell nearly 6% on rumors the EPA could ease biofuel blending rules, and rapeseed followed it lower as a US-Canada trade dispute added pressure.

Trucking costs ease in the Netherlands while ocean and river capacity stay tight

The Netherlands is cutting its truck toll 22% through year-end, but ocean capacity, a fragile Rhine recovery and tighter Panama Canal limits keep freight tight.

Hunger stones: Europe's drought markers point to rising food costs

Drought has unearthed centuries-old hunger stones in European rivers as Eurozone inflation hits 2.9%, with crop stress and freight costs both adding pressure.

Black Sea export losses keep grains prices elevated into September

Wheat and corn are holding near recent highs as Ukrainian and Russian export losses tighten global supply, while soybeans rally on strong Chinese demand.

China's tissue mills keep running machines despite thin margins

EMGE's latest Tissue Market Highlights show China running new capacity even at thin margins, while demand eased across Western Europe and North America.

Europe's egg prices turn higher while the US market cools

European egg prices are rising into autumn restocking while US wholesale prices fall as supply rebuilds, with Polish disease losses tightening Europe's flock.

A summer milk shortfall squeezes Europe's cheese supply

Strong demand and a seasonal drop in milk intake are pushing cheddar, gouda, emmental and mozzarella prices higher across Europe, with mozzarella leading.

India moves toward its first major sugar imports since 2017

India is weighing a cut to its 100% sugar import tax as a weak monsoon threatens next season's cane crop, with global prices already firming.

Macadamia crop grows 11%, almond kernels come in small

Global Trading's August tree nut report has the macadamia crop up 11% and pressuring prices, while small first almond kernels push that market higher.

Smaller cashew and pistachio crops meet a macadamia rebound

ofi's July update puts the cashew crop 10% to 12% below last year and the 2026 pistachio crop near half of 2025, while hazelnut supply stays comfortable.

Tight milk sends processors toward cheese and whey

Seasonally tight milk is pushing European and US processors toward cheese and whey, lifting cream and SMP while butter stocks stay at decade highs.

Typhoon Dolphin's backlog outlasts the storm

Typhoon Dolphin has cleared the Zhejiang coast, but Ningbo and Shanghai backlogs, a record-low Rhine and new EU packaging rules keep shippers under pressure.

US milk: a summer hiccup or a real shift?

Heat has thinned US milk supply and lifted NFDM, but a growing herd and a wide feed-to-milk margin suggest the tightness fades once Q4 arrives.

Whey protein's climb stalls before Q4 contracting

Reformulation has cut WPC80 demand going into Q4, stalling the climb, while MPC 85, lactose and whey permeate tighten across Europe and the US.

China's ports reopen. The shipping backlog does not.

Typhoon Dolphin has passed, but the container backlog at Ningbo-Zhoushan and Shanghai lands on an already tight August for shippers.

Egg markets diverge: Europe steadies while the US rally unwinds

Europe's egg market has stopped falling while the US posts its first broad weekly decline of its rally, and egg powder is now pricing off a different cycle.

EU sets an audit timeline for Brazil's poultry ban, opens a duck dispute with China

The EU has attached a firm audit calendar to Brazil's poultry suspension and opened a new anti-dumping case against Chinese duck imports.

Wheat prices ease despite an unresolved Black Sea problem

Wheat pulled back this fortnight even though the Black Sea disruption remains unresolved, while corn, barley and soybean each moved on their own drivers.

Cheese prices hold firm through a summer that's usually quiet

Europe's cheese market is holding firm and even edging higher through what's normally a slow season, with buyers already locking in Q4 volumes.

El Niño risk spreads across sugar-growing regions, lifting prices

Sugar futures rose 3.8% as El Niño intensifies, threatening crops in Brazil, India, Thailand and the EU just as the 2026/27 balance tightens.

US churns record butter, but stocks run thin into autumn

US butter output hit a 31-year high for January to May, yet June stocks fell to their lowest since 2022 as cheap prices drove record exports.

Whey and milk protein markets run out of room to sell

Sweet whey, MPC, and lactose have tightened sharply on export demand, while WPC80 trade stays quiet until the Q4 purchasing window opens in mid-August.

Why sugar prices held steady through a volatile week

Raw sugar futures stayed under 14.70 cents a pound even as oil markets swung wildly, with EU beet yield cuts and Brazilian crushing delays in focus.

Europe's egg prices cool while the US market climbs again

European egg prices keep sliding on soft summer demand while US wholesale prices for large white eggs roughly tripled from early-July lows on tight supply.

European cheese firms on summer heat, mozzarella still out front

European cheese prices have firmed as summer heat cuts milk output. Mozzarella leads the move while cheddar still looks cheap heading into Q3.

Reefer space, monsoon ports and a low Rhine: this week's freight pressure points

Shypple flags three freight pressure points for food shippers: sold-out reefer space, monsoon and typhoon port delays, and a Rhine too low for full barges.

Gasoil firms on renewed Gulf conflict; biodiesel drifts lower

Fossil diesel snapped higher as conflict around the Strait of Hormuz reignited, lifting the gasoil reference while biodiesel and renewable diesel drifted lower.

Sugar eases as India's monsoon catches up

Sugar prices have eased as India's monsoon narrowed its rainfall deficit, pulling weather risk premium out of the market against a firmer longer-term backdrop.

Whey protein pauses for breath as lactose keeps firming

Whey protein has paused after an extended run higher as buyers tire at current levels, even as lactose keeps firming on stubbornly tight supply.

A heatwave lifted EU butter and SMP. Will it hold?

A European heatwave cut milk and cream output, lifting EU spot butter nearly 3% and SMP about 2%. But with stocks near a five-year high, will the rally hold?

Vegetable oils hold steady while Brent slips and Europe overheats

Vegetable oils held firm even as Brent slipped to $73. Palm oil rose on strong Malaysian exports, while a heatwave trimmed the EU rapeseed crop outlook.

Whey protein stays tight while sweet whey looks for a floor

WPC80 and whey protein isolate rose again on persistent tightness and GLP-1 demand, while EU sweet whey steadied, a sign its long slide may be nearing a floor.

White sugar rallies on weather risk while physical prices sit still

White sugar futures rallied to $475/mt on El Niño and heatwave risk to crops in India and the EU, even as physical prices stayed calm on comfortable supply.

US butter: record output, leanest May stocks in four years

US butter makers are running flat out yet stocks ended May at 335.6m lbs, the lowest May reading since 2022 and down 8%, despite record four-month output.

Freight update: ocean rates near the top, new emission costs from July 1

Asia to North Europe ocean freight rates look to be peaking after six weeks of gains, as capacity stays tight and new EU emission surcharges take effect July 1.

Egg markets split as Europe nears a floor and US prices firm

The two big egg markets are pulling apart: Europe is still easing from its spring peak but slowing, while US prices firm as stocks tighten and demand picks up.

Summer lull pulls cheese prices further from their spring peak

European cheese has drifted further from its spring peak as the summer lull sets in, with Q3 covered and sellers left to increasingly competitive spot trades.

Hot weather lifts EU grains while US futures slip

European grains firmed over two weeks as hot, dry weather raised yield worries, while US futures fell under harvest pressure and a sliding crude oil price.

Palm oil holds firm while Brent slides on US-Iran thaw

BMD crude palm oil rebounded to $1,110/mt from $1,089/mt even as Brent slipped to $77.9 a barrel, with biofuel policy and weather now leading the market.

A new-crop tender resets EU sugar price expectations

A multinational bought 2026-27 sugar at €530 DDP, roughly €495-500 ex works bulk, resetting European price assumptions anchored to CXL import parity.

California almonds firm up as May shipments beat expectations

The California almond market is holding firm into the close of the crop year, after a May position report that beat trade expectations on shipments and sales.

North America paperboard tightens while Western Europe stays soft

Paperboard markets diverged through spring, with Western Europe staying weak, North America showing early recovery and Asian demand continuing to grow.

Ocean rates climb into July, with new tolls and surcharges close behind

Asia to North Europe freight rates have risen for six straight weeks, and procurement teams importing through the region should plan for more of the same.

Brazil sets a poultry export record, but EU access hangs in the balance

Brazil posted its strongest poultry export month on record in May 2026, with chicken revenue topping $1 billion, yet EU market access hangs in the balance.

Egg prices fall on both sides of the Atlantic, for opposite reasons

Egg prices are falling in Europe and the US for opposite reasons, with cheap uncertified Eastern European supply pressuring caged and barn eggs in the EU.

European cheese softens as buyers wait out the summer

European cheese keeps softening. With Q3 coverage behind them almost all buyers have stepped aside, bids sit notably lower and sellers are struggling to move.

Grains slip across the board on better US weather

Grain prices fell over two weeks as better US and EU weather, weaker soybeans and softer Brent crude pulled wheat, corn and barley back off recent gains.

Ivory Coast arrivals outpace last season, pressuring cocoa

Cocoa fell on supportive West African weather and a jump in Ivory Coast arrivals, with ICE EU down 6% to 2,940 GBP/t and ICE US down 6% to 3,831 USD/t.

Chicken prices fell across the board last month, but the autumn outlook points higher

Brazilian chicken breast fillet led a broad poultry decline, dropping 16% to around €2,890 per tonne, in a month where every benchmark Vesper tracks fell.

European sugar: buyers and sellers dig in on new-crop prices

The 2026/27 European sugar market is a standoff: buyers hold around €530 depending on volume while sellers try to keep the line near €600 bulk ex works.

Whey protein pauses for breath, but the market stays tight

With Q3 purchasing largely wrapped up, the sharp rises across the whey protein concentrate complex are losing momentum, though the market stays tight.

Brazil's bumper crush and softer oil weigh on sugar prices

A strong Brazilian result and weaker oil have offset El Niño risk to keep sugar under pressure, with crude down about 4% and holding below $100 a barrel.

Thai rice up 25%, wheat swings 40 EUR in a month: grains reprice across the board

Thai rice rose 16 to 25% in May, parboiled A1 leading from 220.73 to 275.61 USD/mt, while EU milling wheat fell to 180 EUR/mt then jumped 36 EUR the next day.

Vegetable oils hold firm on crude rebound and biofuel demand

Vegetable oils steadied as Brent's August contract fell to $91 a barrel on May 29 then recovered to around $95 on reports Iran had suspended talks with the US.

Cocoa rally fades as weak demand meets a bigger Ivorian crop

Cocoa opened last week with a strong rally then gave it back over consecutive down days, a pattern Martijn Bron puts down to silly season volatility.

Ocean freight tightens as June peak-season surcharges hit every carrier

Container shipping is under more pressure than at any point since the Red Sea crisis, with every major carrier announcing a June surcharge of $500 to $1,200.

US peanut acres set to shrink, lifting the price floor

The peanut market has moved back into cost-of-production territory after a long oversupply, with firm prices across the US, Argentina and Brazil.

Brazil loses EU poultry access from September; the authorisation body meets too late to fix it

The European Commission has confirmed Brazil cannot export poultry meat to the EU from 3 September 2026, after missing the antimicrobial compliance list.

EU egg prices correct from highs; heatwave hits at the worst possible moment

European egg prices are falling across all categories on rising imports from Eastern Europe and Turkey, seasonal weakness, and record pullet placements.

Record May temperatures lift European grain futures as US crop weather eases CBOT

European and US grains diverged, with Euronext milling wheat up to EUR 214/mt while CBOT SRW wheat fell to 648 cents/bu from 678 on easing crop weather.

US milk powder prices slip as production growth cools

US nonfat dry milk fell about $0.20/lb in a week, New Zealand powder dropped $200/mt at the GDT pulse, and European quotes eased from €2,900 to €2,800/mt.

US NFDM falls $0.20/lb in a week as global milk powder markets follow

US NFDM fell around $0.20/lb in a week and the move travelled, with NZ SMP down $200/mt at the latest GDT pulse event and European SMP easing alongside.

EU cocoa futures post a 10% single-session gain as the Silly Season takes hold

EU cocoa rose 7% on the week to 3,153 GBP/t for front-month July 2026, while the September contract gained 8% and at one point rallied over 10% in a session.

European cheese markets ease into summer lull as Q3 demand completes

European cheese prices edged higher on seasonal warmth and Q3 forward buying, then stalled as that demand was covered and the summer lull set in.

Indonesia's export overhaul casts shadow over palm oil as Iran peace talks weigh on energy prices

Indonesia has announced export centralisation for key commodities including palm oil from June 1, aimed at under-invoicing, onto an already softening market.

Südzucker's sugar division posts €177 million loss as S&P turns negative

Südzucker's sugar division posted a €177 million operating loss in 2025/26 against €13 million a year earlier, and S&P cut its debt outlook to negative.

European butter builds up while US milk powder holds the global floor

The global dairy market is running two stories at once: US NFDM is historically expensive and hard to source, while European butter production keeps building.

Germany's RED III adoption and higher energy prices lift European biodiesel sharply

European biodiesel rose sharply in May, with FAME 0 up from $1,382 to $1,500 per tonne and UCOME reaching $1,652, after the Bundestag adopted RED III.

Grains slip on US-China summit disappointment despite tight wheat supply underneath

The US-China summit brought no soybean purchase commitments and no tariff cuts, and CBOT soybeans fell from 1,207 to 1,174 cents per bushel in response.

Ocean freight rates jump on early peak season while Hormuz stays shut for most

Container spot rates from Shanghai rose 11% to Northern Europe and 20% to the Mediterranean, as carriers pushed peak season surcharges ahead of the window.

Sugar's 2026/27 deficit is confirmed, but the size gap between forecasters is enormous

The International Sugar Organization projects a 2026/27 global deficit of 262,000 tonnes, a directional signal, though the spread between forecasters is huge.

WPC80 prices at record levels as new protein demand grows faster than supply

The whey protein market is running an unusual experiment: higher prices are drawing in both more supply and more demand, with demand growing at least as fast.

Food and beverage costs face a second wave of commodity pressure

Oil has held above $100 a barrel through May, but the bigger story is funds rotating out of crude positions and into agricultural commodities instead.

European cheese prices rise as Q3 buyers return

European cheese prices have moved higher over two weeks, but in stops and starts, as fresh spot and Q3 demand lifted a market that had been drifting lower.

European eggs cool while the US flips from scarcity to surplus

European eggs are easing from post-Easter highs, but unevenly: caged and standard soften on Eastern European supply while free-range stays tight on disease.

Cocoa rallies 30% in a week on short-covering and crop risk

EU cocoa front-month May 2026 futures closed up 34% on the week at 3,551 GBP/t, with gains spread across the curve rather than concentrated in the front.

Vegetable oils ease with Brent on stalled Iran-US talks

Brent July closed the week at $104 a barrel, down from $114, after recovering off a $100 low as signs of progress in Iran-US peace talks then reversed.

California almond shipments beat March expectations, Turkey absorbs Middle East rerouting

California almond shipments reached 257.99 million lbs in March, well above the roughly 225 million expected and up 16.5% on last March's 221.37 million.

Energy market strength lifts sugar to one-month high

Raw sugar extended its climb, with the NY11 July contract closing at a one-month high of 15.37 USc/lb on stronger oil and a firmer Brazilian real.

US milk powder shortage pulls EU and Oceania SMP prices higher

European and New Zealand SMP climbed again, with NZ passing $3,600/mt at the GDT auction while US NFDM keeps printing new highs on the CME spot call.

Whey protein tightness drives reformulation toward MPC 85 in Q3

The global whey protein market opened its Q3 window at fresh highs, with WPC80 leading the complex up and prompting a clear reformulation trend industry-wide.

EU partially suspends sugar IPP imports for one year from May 27

The European Commission's sugar committee voted on April 30 to partially suspend Inward Processing Procedure imports for one year, effective from May 27.

Cheese markets soften under weight of peak milk supply

European and North American cheese markets are broadly stable but the tone is bearish, with milk near its seasonal peak leaving cooperatives few options.

Cocoa prices find a higher floor on supply risk concerns

Cocoa has moved higher with the front-month May 2026 ICE Europe contract closing 3.7% up at GBP 2,495/t, as focus shifts from demand destruction to supply.

El Niño risk reshapes sugar's 2026/27 supply outlook

Raw sugar edged higher on Brazil's planned anhydrous ethanol blend increase from 30% to 32% and firmer crude, with Sugar No. 11 settling at 14.11 cents/lb.

Rapeseed market firms after Germany adopts RED III

MATIF rapeseed rose to EUR 552/mt from EUR 508/mt after Germany adopted RED III, with tight EU stocks, strong crush and firmer crude oil all lending support.

Butter weakens while milk powders climb on record US NFDM pricing

Butter and milk powders are moving in opposite directions, with heavy milk flows pressuring butterfat while US NFDM hit a CME record and pulled SMP higher.

Whey protein prices hold at all-time highs with demand destruction still elusive

WPC80 and WPI remain at record levels in Europe and the US, above the point where reformulation has begun but not yet enough to close the supply gap.

Soy and palm oils lead vegetable oil gains on biofuel policy and crude rebound

Soybean and palm oil led the vegetable oil complex higher, with CBOT soy oil up to 69.63 US cents/lb from 65.50 on a crude rebound and Southeast Asian policy.

Energy costs drive starch prices higher across wheat, corn and tapioca

Wheat, tapioca and corn starch prices all rose month on month in April, as energy costs tied to the Middle East conflict squeezed margins and Q2 contracts.

European cocoa grindings drop to decade low on weak chocolate demand

European cocoa grindings fell 7.8% year on year in Q1 2026 to 325,895 mt, the lowest quarterly total in more than a decade, on weak chocolate demand.

Nordic Sugar to close Porkalla refinery, first EU standalone closure since end of quotas

Nordic Sugar will close its standalone refinery at Porkalla, Finland and move raw sugar refining to its beet factory, the first such EU closure since quotas.

China set to overtake Brazil as world's top chicken meat producer

USDA forecasts point to a 5% rise in Chinese poultry output in 2026, enough to push China past Brazil as the world's largest chicken meat producer.

Energy shock threatens to lift EU food inflation to 5 to 10% by 2027

The European food industry faces a renewed inflationary period, as the energy shock from the Iran conflict passes through to consumer prices over two years.

Southeast Asia biodiesel mandates reshape palm oil supply outlook

Three major Southeast Asian palm oil producers are raising biodiesel blending mandates, with Indonesia moving to B50 from July 2026 for public service fuel.

Cheese markets flip from Q1 shortage to Q2 surplus

Q1 was defined by limited commodity cheese availability as export demand pulled volumes out of Europe and the US. At the start of Q2, that dynamic has shifted.

Cocoa prices break 2,500 resistance despite record fund short position

Cocoa broke above 2,500 resistance on fund short covering ahead of global grindings data, with the US-Iran ceasefire lending broad commodity support.

Sugar retreats from March highs on easing geopolitical risk

Sugar No. 11 stood at 13.88 cents/lb and No. 5 white at $424/mt on April 14, as ample supply and India holding its export quota outweighed easing geopolitics.

Vegetable oils slip lower on ceasefire optimism and weaker crude

BMD crude palm oil fell to $1,120/mt from $1,176/mt and CBOT soybean oil to 66.5 US cents/lb from 69.95, as ceasefire optimism and weaker crude weighed.

Australian sheep meat exports decline sharply in March as MENA shipments contract

Australian lamb and mutton exports fell to 42,656 tonnes in March 2026, down 24% year on year and 6% below the five-year average, as MENA flows contracted.

Butter leads dairy prices lower at start of Q2 flush season

Dairy markets entered a calmer phase at the start of Q2, with the flush season adding pressure to butter, SMP and WMP prices in Europe and New Zealand.

WPC80 shortage drives protein markets into uncharted territory

The whey protein market is splitting: WPC80 faces a structural shortage with no near-term relief, while sweet whey, permeate and lactose soften on exports.

Cocoa grindings extend decline with chocolate demand under sustained pressure

Cocoa grindings look set to stay well below historical levels through 2025/26, with European volumes down 8.3% in Q4 and pressure across the chocolate trade.

Variable spring weather disrupts EU sugar beet drilling, area down 7% year on year

Beet drilling has been uneven across northern Europe this spring, with France 93% planted by March 23rd, adding uncertainty to the 2026/27 EU sugar outlook.

European egg market enters Easter under supply pressure

Europe's egg market enters Easter with firm demand, limited supply and elevated retail prices, as disease outbreaks and staggered holidays tighten the picture.

Middle East conflict drives Brazilian chicken prices higher

Brazilian chicken prices reversed sharply in week 14, with whole bird and cut prices up 5% to 7%, driven by further escalation of the Middle East conflict.

Cocoa prices stage end-of-quarter rally, but cost pressures cloud the chocolate outlook

Cocoa rallied at the end of March, EU futures gaining 7% in a session to £2,487/mt, though the move points to short-covering rather than changed fundamentals.

European cheese markets turn softer at the start of Q2

After a firm Q1 held tight by export demand, European cheese is softening as high production and a less favourable exchange rate press on sellers.

Grains hold firm on crude oil support, but markets watch for de-escalation signals

Wheat, corn, barley and soybeans stayed elevated on Brent crude support, though US signals that the Middle East conflict could end soon are being priced in.

Sugar prices edge higher on crude oil rally, but fundamentals stay soft

Sugar moved modestly higher on a sharp rise in crude oil rather than any change in supply and demand, with gains trimmed once ceasefire talks emerged.

EU sugar beet farmers face higher costs as energy prices climb

European sugar beet growers head into the 2026 planting season facing higher costs, with UK red diesel up 60% since the Middle East conflict began.

European butter prices correct sharply while SMP holds firm

European butter fell from close to EUR 5,000/mt to as low as EUR 4,200/mt in days, after fresh and older volumes came to market at the EUR 5,000 level.

Global cartonboard demand ends 2025 flat as regional trends diverge sharply

Global cartonboard demand grew 1% in December 2025, leaving full-year growth at zero, though the flat headline masks sharp divergence between regions.

WPC80 prices exceed EUR 20,000/mt as global supply falls short of demand

WPC80 has tightened to the point that transactions above EUR 20,000/mt are reported for Q2, Q3 and Q4 2026, with buyers locking in volumes well into the year.

Philippine biofuel policy uncertainty weighs on coconut oil prices

Coconut oil at origin fell sharply, with EXW Manila down to $1,918/mt from $2,271/mt, as Philippine biofuel producers grew wary of domestic policy changes.

Fuel surcharges climb and containers pile up as Strait of Hormuz disruption deepens

The Strait of Hormuz blockade is pressuring ocean and air freight, with emergency fuel surcharges rising and 200,000 containers trapped in the Persian Gulf.

Corn and wheat prices climb on energy costs and tighter 2026 supply forecasts

Corn and wheat rose over two weeks on higher Brent crude and cuts to 2026 supply forecasts, with Euronext milling wheat up to EUR 207/mt from EUR 202/mt.

European egg shortage deepens ahead of Easter as disease outbreaks hit supply

Europe's egg market is under severe pressure 15 days from Easter, as HPAI and Newcastle Disease outbreaks force the culling of millions of laying hens.

NFDM prices approach 10-year highs as US supply tightens

US non-fat dry milk rose a further USD 0.08/lb on the week, a 4.53% gain that leaves prices just USD 0.055/lb below their ten-year highs on tighter supply.

NFDM prices approach 10-year highs despite record milk surplus

Non-fat dry milk rose 4.53% this week to within $0.055/lb of ten-year highs, a striking disconnect from surging milk production across all major regions.

Wheat futures rally, but cash markets tell a different story

Wheat futures have pushed higher, but a growing disconnect with cash markets points to a correction, while barley exports run at multi-year highs.

Record Brazilian exports push global poultry prices lower

Global poultry heads into late March broadly bearish, with Brazilian and Thai origins falling across whole birds, breast meat and wings on record exports.

Cheap milk, tight cheese: how production capacity is driving European markets

Raw milk is hitting European spot markets at €0.10-€0.25/kg in mid-March, yet cheese stocks are tight and prices firm, because capacity is running flat out.

Cocoa farmers in Brazil cancel expansion plans as low prices bite

Brazilian cocoa farmers expect to cancel around 50% of planned industrial cultivation projects, as prices below $3,000/t make new investment unviable.

Why a $100 oil price isn't lifting sugar markets

Crude briefly touched $100 a barrel after the Strait of Hormuz closed, yet sugar has barely responded, with Sugar No. 11 edging up to just 14.45 cents/lb.

Bakery market forecast 2026: flour, starches, eggs, dairy, vegetable oils, sugar, cocoa, nuts

Bakery procurement in H2 2026 faces mixed signals: some ingredients are softening, others under renewed pressure, and a handful in genuinely tight supply.

Chocolate forecast 2026: cocoa, sugar, vegetable oils, nuts

Chocolate manufacturers face an ingredient picture very different from the start of the year: cocoa has fallen sharply while other input costs have risen.

European beef market forecast 2026: structural herd contraction keeps upward price pressure in place

Cattle and beef prices are expected to keep rising into 2026, driven by continued regulatory pressure on producers and a self-reinforcing herd contraction.

European butter forecast: rangebound in H1 2026, with recovery expected as milk tightens in H2

European butter enters 2026 with ample supply after strong 2025 production, keeping stocks elevated and capping prices until milk tightens later in the year.

European Cheddar forecast 2026: lean stocks and firm prices despite strong production

European Cheddar production held strong through 2025 on abundant milk, yet stocks remain lean and prices firm as the expected supply-heavy H1 did not arrive.

European chicken market forecast 2026: prices fall on Brazilian import increase, avian flu risk persists

European chicken prices have fallen sharply since the ban on Brazilian poultry was lifted, as exports from Brazil to Europe more than tripled from November.

European dairy market forecast 2026: milk, butter, smp, wmp, swp, cheeses

European dairy in 2026 is not one market but several: some categories are well supplied and stable, others have tightened far beyond what was expected.

European egg market forecast 2026: avian flu outbreaks keep supply tight and prices elevated through Q1

Mass avian flu outbreaks have persisted through Q1 2026, with extensive cullings across major European producers keeping supply tight and prices elevated.

European Mozzarella forecast 2026: prices rise sharply since February as nearby supply proves scarce

European Mozzarella output held strong through 2025 on abundant milk, yet prices have risen sharply since February as buyers find little nearby product.

European pork market forecast 2026: African Swine Fever in Spain redirects volumes to EU markets, pressuring prices

The EU sow herd is forecast to shrink again in 2026 on environmental restructuring, with feed prices favourable but labour and energy keeping costs elevated.

Gouda market forecast 2026: prices move higher as stocks stay lean and Dutch production expected to shrink

Gouda output was robust across Europe in 2025 on strong milk, yet stocks stayed lean as consumption and exports absorbed volumes, and prices moved higher.

Lauric oils forecast 2026: prices retreat from 2025 peaks as coconut supply recovery approaches

Lauric oils have fallen from 2025 peaks as the International Coconut Community expects global coconut oil output to recover to 3.515 mmt from 3.155 mmt.

Olive oil market forecast 2026: production normalises after two volatile seasons, prices expected to hold broadly stable

Extra virgin olive oil peaked near EUR 5,000/mt EXW Spain in November 2025, fell to EUR 4,300/mt in January and has since recovered to about EUR 4,600/mt.

Pizza, pasta, savory snack forecast: flour, tomate, chicken, beef, pork, mozzarella, olive oil

H2 2026 brings pizza, pasta and snack manufacturers near-term stability alongside building supply risk, with some procurement windows unlikely to last.

Potato starch market outlook 2026: record 2025 harvest drives prices to lowest point since 2024

A very favourable 2025 crop has driven potato starch prices down, with Dutch output reaching 3.62 million tonnes, 15.5% above 2024, and Germany near 13.4m.

Rapeseed oil price forcast 2026: Brent crude drives near-term gains, harvest pressure expected from Q2

Crude rapeseed oil FOB Dutch Mill rose to EUR 1,117/mt from EUR 1,030/mt in January on competing vegetable oils and Brent, despite comfortable EU supply.

Rapeseed oil price forecast 2026: Brent crude drives near-term gains, harvest pressure expected from Q2

Crude rapeseed oil FOB Dutch Mill rose to EUR 1,117/mt from EUR 1,030/mt in January on competing vegetable oils and Brent, despite comfortable EU supply.

SMP market forecast 2026: US production shortfall pulls international buyers toward Europe

The global skim milk powder market has turned firm rather than supply-heavy as 2026 began, and that tone looks set to persist for the foreseeable future.

Sports Nutrition ingredients forecast 2026: whey protein powders, eggs, sugar, nuts, cooa

The sports nutrition supply chain is under its heaviest pressure in years, as whey demand broadens into medical, weight management and food fortification.

Sugar market forecast: raw, white, sweeteners

Sugar in 2026 is a surplus market, but the headline hides a lot: energy, Brazilian cane allocation and European supply all pull the picture in different ways.

Sugar markets stabilise after Q1 surplus pressure, with Brazil and energy dynamics shaping the outlook

Raw and white sugar spent most of Q1 under surplus pressure before stabilising into early March, as strengthening energy markets provided the counterweight.

Sunflower oil market forecast 2026: prices firm on tight supply as Argentine shipments to Europe surge

FOB 6-port crude sunflower oil has risen to USD 1,485/mt from around USD 1,400 at the start of the year, on tight supply and firm Brent crude prices.

Sweet whey powder forecast 2026: European prices overtake US levels as costs rise and Middle East demand accelerates

Sweet whey powder shows a clear Europe and US divide in early 2026, with European prices well above the subdued picture first expected as energy costs rise.

Tomato paste market forecast 2026: Q2 expected stable, but California and energy risks loom for H2

Tomato paste prices are expected to soften modestly in Q2 2026 from firm early-year levels, with the market adequately supplied and not chasing volume.

Vegetable oil market forecast: olive, rapeseed, soybean, sunflower, palm, coconut, palm kernel oil

Oils and fats in 2026 are pulled two ways: large harvests and record stocks point to comfort, while the energy complex pulls in the opposite direction.

WMP forecast 2026: EU and New Zealand prices converge for first time since 2021

European whole milk powder follows butter and SMP together with milk availability. With butter rangebound and SMP firm, the WMP outlook has shifted up.

WPC80 market forecast 2026: Q2 volumes near sold out as demand outpaces supply across all major regions

WPC80 stands apart from the dairy complex, driven by demand rather than milk availability, and that firm tone is expected to persist throughout 2026.

WPI price forecast 2026: EU prices approach €25,000/mt as GLP-1 demand adds to supply strain

Whey protein isolate demand keeps outstripping capacity, with European facilities running flat out and no realistic path to increase output meaningfully.

US dairy exports hit records as American product finds new markets worldwide

US butterfat exports are up 166% year on year and cheese exports have hit all-time highs, driven largely by competitive American pricing on global markets.

Tight skimmed milk powder supply supports global prices

Skimmed milk powder stays firmly supported as limited US and Oceania supply meets steady import demand, with the EU Vesper Price Index at €2,600 per tonne.

WPC80 shortage keeps whey market firmly bullish

Global whey markets stay bullish as tight WPC80 supply and strong demand across nutrition and food sectors leave Q2 volumes nearly sold out.

High EU sugar stocks keep market under pressure

EU sugar stocks have reached their highest level for this point in three years as the beet campaign ends, keeping the market under sustained pressure.

Weather anomalies raise risks across key sugar regions

Unusual February weather raised production risks across Europe, Brazil, India and China, with northern France recording rainfall far above the seasonal norm.

Coffee futures slip below $3/lb as supply improves, Middle East conflict adds volatility

Arabica futures fell to $2.83/lb as certified stock availability improved and roasters held back purchases, with the Middle East conflict adding volatility.

Paperboard markets diverge as Western Europe softens and North America holds firm

Western European cartonboard and containerboard markets continued to soften in November 2025, while North America held firm.

Ivory Coast brings forward mid-crop season in bid to clear unsold cocoa stocks

Ivory Coast has reclassified March cocoa as mid-crop rather than main crop, sharply cutting farmgate prices in a bid to move unsold stocks into the market.

Sugar prices near multi-year lows as global surplus holds, crude volatility adds uncertainty

Sugar hit multi-year lows in mid-February before recovering, with Sugar No. 11 at 13.93 cents/lb on 3 March as crude volatility offset a global surplus.

Middle East conflict pushes vegetable oil prices higher as freight costs climb

Brent crude's rise after Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz is lifting vegetable oils across the board, with freight costs climbing on key shipping routes.

How Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption could impact food commodity market

Middle East tensions and restricted movement through the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Brent crude higher. How that could reach food commodity markets.

European sugar producers feel the squeeze as market prices stay low

Tereos and Südzucker have both reported major financial setbacks, with Tereos posting a €598 million operating loss for the first nine months of 2025/26.

Tree nut markets in early 2026: cashews, macadamias, almonds, and pecans

Tree nut markets are picking up into Q2, with buyers and sellers across cashews, macadamias, almonds and pecans working out strategy. Where each one stands.

Dairy markets firm on scarce offers and strong export demand

A shortage of offers is lifting butter and SMP prices across Europe, the US and Oceania, as sellers export aggressively or hold back rather than quote.

WPC80 market tightens further as Q2 volumes near sold out across Europe and the US

WPC80 is tightening fast with Q2 volumes close to sold out across Europe and the US, and buyers now focused on securing volume rather than on price.

Blank sailings climb to 18% as carriers manage post-CNY capacity

Carriers pulled 125 of 710 scheduled sailings between February 9 and March 15, an 18% cancellation rate, to stop post-Chinese New Year rates falling further.

Cocoa prices fall 35% in a month as West African supply overhang deepens

Cocoa has fallen about 35% in a month and sits 70% below year-ago levels, with ICE EU March 2026 at £2,438/t as unsold beans build in Ghana and Ivory Coast.

European cheese prices hold firm in February, defying seasonal correction expectations

EU Gouda and Mozzarella have risen to around €3,300/mt in February, as low stocks and firm producer pricing defy the correction the trade had expected.

Sugar markets hit five-year lows as global surplus weighs on prices

Raw sugar fell to 13.86 cents/lb and white to $403/mt, the lowest since October 2020, as a projected surplus and rising European stocks weigh on the market.

Palm oil prices decline on weak February exports; POC conference flags 2026 supply risks

BMD CPO settled at $1,030/mt from $1,043/mt on weak early-February exports and Lunar New Year, while the POC Malaysia conference flagged 2026 supply risks.

South American supply boom reshapes corn oil trade flows

A record Argentine harvest and strong Brazilian estimates keep corn oil under pressure, with Conab revising Brazil's crop up to 138.87 million metric tons.

Structural shift in US skim milk use keeps NFDM markets tight

Four consecutive years of falling US NFDM production point to a structural shift in where skim milk is going toward MPC and butter.

WPC80 shortage intensifies with producers in control of pricing and allocation

Global whey protein concentrate 80 market reaches critical tightness with structural shortage affecting all whey products. Producers control pricing as domestic

Cocoa futures recover modestly as Ghana payment crisis leaves 150,000 mt stuck

Cocoa futures recovered slightly after sharp declines, but a payment crisis in Ghana and Ivory Coast has left farmers unpaid and 150,000 mt of beans stuck.

EU sugar production projected to fall 10% as consumption uncertainty clouds market outlook

EU sugar production is projected to fall to 15.4 million tonnes in 2026/27 from 17.05 million, on 7% lower plantings and less favourable growing conditions.

Soybean prices jump on China trade talks and U.S. crush demand

CBOT soybeans surged to 1,115 cents a bushel from 1,068 on US-China trade progress, new 45Z biofuel rules and strong December domestic crush demand.

Europe faces Easter egg shortage as Poland loses 5 million laying hens

Poland has lost at least 5 million laying hens in six weeks, nearly 10% of national capacity, pointing to severe Easter egg shortages across Europe.

U.S. Treasury's 45Z guidance tilts biofuel policy toward North American crop oils

New 45Z guidance restricts eligible fuels to US, Canadian and Mexican feedstocks and removes ILUC penalties, lending support to CBOT soybean oil prices.

Coffee futures drop 50 cents as roaster demand and exchange inventory shift

Coffee March contract dropped 50.1 cents to 317.1 cents per pound as roaster fixations concluded and exchange inventory began rebuilding.

U.S. broiler production forecast at 1.5% growth for 2026

US broiler production is projected at 48.7 billion pounds in 2026, up 1.5%, a downward revision from 2.1% after LEAP analysts adjusted their weight assumptions.

European skim milk powder reaches €2,200 per tonne as short squeeze lifts dairy prices

European skim milk powder reached €2,200 per tonne in late January as a short squeeze lifted prices 10%, despite structurally weak long-term fundamentals.

Whey protein concentrate reaches €14,320 per tonne in Europe as structural shortage persists

EU WPC80 instant reached €14,320 per tonne and US prices €15,067 in late January, as manufacturers sold out volumes and demand outstripped available supply.

Palm oil prices rise on strong January exports as Indian buyers shift from soybean oil

BMD crude palm oil rose to $1,051/mt from $1,003/mt on Malaysian January exports up 8-10%, as Indian buyers cancelled soybean oil shipments in favour of palm.

Container shipping rates drop ahead of Chinese New Year as demand falls short

Spot rates fell by double digits on Asia-Europe and Asia-America routes in late January, as the expected pre-Chinese New Year demand surge failed to arrive.

European poultry fillet prices face continued pressure after holiday demand fades

Chicken breast and fillet prices fell across Europe in January as holiday demand faded, extending a decline that began in the second half of 2025.

European sugar producers face mounting losses as Süedzucker reports €136 million deficit

Süedzucker posted a €136 million operating loss in its sugar division against €23 million a year earlier, while Nordzucker recorded a €56 million loss.

EU egg market faces structural supply pressure as avian influenza culls and trade restrictions tighten availability

Empty shelves across Austria, Germany and France signal structural supply tightness in EU egg markets. HPAI culls, slow restocking

Cocoa prices hit 2-year low as farmgate pricing crisis leaves African beans stranded at ports

London cocoa fell over 12% to 3,347 GBP/t, a two-year low, as fixed farmgate prices in Ivory Coast and Ghana created a West African supply bottleneck.

European cheese prices hold steady as butter markets collapse, shifting dairy valorization dynamics

Cheese holds firm around €3,000/mt despite peak seasonal production, while collapsing butter prices shift dairy valorisation calculations toward protein.

Paperboard market shows diverging regional trends as operating ratios hit multi-year lows

Global paperboard markets diverged in October 2025, with cartonboard operating ratios at multi-year lows and Western European demand down 14% on the year.

Cocoa market seeks equilibrium after 50% price retreat

Cocoa futures trade in a narrow range as the market seeks equilibrium after a 50% retracement, with mild Harmattan and good rainfall supporting West Africa.

Shipping costs climb as pre-Chinese New Year demand hits Asia-Europe routes

Asia-Europe spot rates have climbed for a third consecutive week as the pre-Chinese New Year rush tightens capacity and carriers implement fresh surcharges.

European butter prices head for sub-€4,000/mt in Q1 as surplus hits 93,700mt

European butter closes 2025 under pressure with the EU Vesper Price Index at €4,090/mt, and a 93,700 mt surplus pointing below €4,000/mt in the first quarter.

WPC80 and WPI prices hit record highs on GLP-1 medication demand

WPC80 prices hit €13,000/mt and WPI reaches €21,500/mt as GLP-1 medication demand creates shortages in global whey protein markets.

Südzucker takes radical position with 15-25% beet reduction

Südzucker has announced beet reductions of 15 to 25% from its farmers and subsidiaries, a far more radical step than competitors including Tereos have taken.

Egg markets face dual pressure from avian flu outbreaks and rising energy costs

Germany reports 25 farm cases and France 33, the Netherlands has culled 62,000 hens, and Arctic weather is driving a sharp November energy cost spike.

EU chocolate inflation remains at multi-year highs despite cocoa price correction

European chocolate inflation stayed near multi-year highs at 17.3% year on year even as cocoa fell 60% from its peak, limiting any recovery in demand.

European cheese producers sell forward to avoid Q1 weakness as buyers hold back

Gouda has fallen to EUR 2,980/mt as producers lock in Q1 and Q2 sales ahead of seasonal weakness, while buyers hold back waiting for further declines.

European wheat faces competition squeeze amid strong euro and record global output

French wheat flour has fallen to EUR 283/mt as record global output and an 11% euro appreciation squeeze European exporters against Russia and Argentina.

Coffee futures hold range despite record December delivery amid tariff relief

Coffee traded a 370-390 range as a record December delivery inversion worth a $21 million premium offset US tariff relief on Brazilian coffee imports.

European sugar processors announce 2026 acreage cuts following stock accumulation

European processors have announced larger-than-expected 2026 acreage cuts on high stocks, while Brazilian mills wrap up early with 120 units finished.

Global milk production overwhelms demand, timing mismatches amplify market pain

US cheese hit 2025 lows and the butter spread to retail topped $2.77/lb, as strong milk output across the US, Europe and New Zealand overwhelms demand.

European butter surplus climbs to 106,000 metric tons

European butter production surged 5.09% in 2025 to leave a 106,000 mt surplus, with cream cheap at €5,500/mt and buyers already covered for their needs.

Bullish mood for palm and rivals after the IPOC Conference in Indonesia

BMD crude palm oil climbed to $993/mt after the IPOC conference in Indonesia, where views diverged on production declines, land seizures and biodiesel.

European sugar producers cut beet area in emergency move

Suedzucker is offering a €10/tonne premium to cut 2026 beet area as European sugar falls to €425/tonne, while French growers battle virus yellows.

Shipping rates from Asia to Europe climb 3-4% on major routes

Shipping rates from Asia to Europe increased 3-4% on major routes as carriers manage capacity and 2026 contract negotiations begin.

Chocolate demand pressures mount with Singles Day spending decline

Cocoa fell more than 9% this week to around 4,202 GBP/t, as Singles Day spending dropped 20% and Barry Callebaut reported a 5.3% fall in chocolate volumes.

European cheese exports surge as dollar strength reshapes global trade flows

European cheese has regained export competitiveness as a stronger dollar pushes Asian buyers from US to EU suppliers, clearing stocks and steadying prices.

Rapeseed oil prices hold firm on tight supply and biodiesel policy expectations

December crude rapeseed oil FOB Dutch Mill reached EUR 1,085/mt, up from EUR 1,075/mt, with the market in backwardation on tight European Union supply.

Record yields drive European sugar producers to cut 2026 output

Major European sugar producers announce significant production cuts for 2026 as record yields and elevated stocks create supply pressures.

Western Europe paperboard demand drops in sharp contrast to other regions

Western Europe's paperboard demand fell sharply in August 2025 while other regions held stable or grew, according to EMGE's latest regional figures.

European SMP prices supported by euro weakness as currency movements influence global markets

EUR/USD moving from 1.17 to 1.14-1.15 is supporting European skim milk powder prices despite weak fundamentals, with currency outweighing supply and demand.

Germany and Netherlands eye policy shifts that could reshape European biodiesel demand

Germany and the Netherlands are weighing an end to double counting for advanced biofuels, a change that could significantly reshape EU biodiesel demand.

EU proposes six-month grace period for cocoa deforestation law

The EU will propose six months of leeway on its deforestation law rather than the longer delay announced in September, with simpler smallholder requirements.

US whey protein concentrate market reaches record prices as spot availability becomes critically low

US WPC80 has become virtually impossible to source as temporary factory downtime creates a shortage, pushing spot prices to a record $6.35 per pound.

Chocolate makers adjust recipes as cocoa costs remain elevated

High cocoa prices are driving recipe changes across the industry, with rice, oats and sunflower seeds replacing cocoa and some bars losing the chocolate label.

Chocolate manufacturers plan price cuts after consumers reject 30% increases

Mondelez reports higher-than-expected chocolate demand elasticity in Europe, with consumers pushing back after cumulative 30% price increases. What follows.

European sugar producers face break-even crisis with prices at €450

European sugar has fallen to €450 ex-factory beet belt on a bulk basis, pushing producers toward break-even after sharp declines in New York 11 futures.

Chocolate demand proves more price-sensitive than expected as Mondelez reports consumer pushback

Mondelez puts European chocolate demand elasticity at 0.7-0.8, well above the 0.4-0.5 the industry expected, as cumulative 30% price rises test consumers.

Raw sugar prices hit four-year lows on surplus concerns

Raw sugar futures fell to 14.37 cents per pound, the lowest since April 2021, after São Paulo conferences raised Brazilian output and Indian export concerns.

Trump-Xi meeting drives grain prices higher as markets anticipate soybean trade resumption

US grain futures rallied ahead of the Trump and Xi meeting, with CBOT soybeans jumping to 1,078 cents a bushel from 1,006 two weeks earlier on purchase hopes.

US cheese prices rise above European levels, affecting international competitiveness

US cheese has climbed to levels where international competitiveness is a challenge, with cheddar at $1.78 a pound while Europe offers very competitive prices.

Sunflower oil prices reach 10-month high as tight supply persists

November crude sunflower oil reached $1,405/mt from $1,360/mt, with FOB Ukraine at $635/mt, the highest since December 2024, on harvest disappointments.

Germany considers ending UCOME double-counting by January 2026

Germany plans to end double-counting for advanced biofuels including UCOME from January 2026 under RED III, potentially reshaping European biodiesel.

Butter markets show temporary stability but underlying weakness remains

European butter trades below €5,000/mt as abundant milk pressures dairy, with the EU VPI at €4,900/mt and SMP and WMP prices expected to decline further.

European WPC80 market empties for Q4 following large volume purchases

The European WPC80 market has turned significantly tight within weeks, with Western European producers quoting above €12,500/mt after large Q4 purchases.

Black Sea sunflower crop concerns drive prices higher as supply outlook tightens

Sunflower oil rose $20/mt to $1,375/mt as Ukrainian crop estimates fell to 10.5-11.2 mmt from 12.7 mmt last year on poor yields and excessive rainfall.

Cocoa demand destruction confirmed as Q3 grind numbers reveal global decline

Q3 cocoa grind figures confirm demand destruction, with European grind down 4.8% to 337,353 mt and Asia down 17% as high prices hit chocolate consumption.

European sugar prices decline over 20% since May

European sugar prices have fallen over 20% since May to €475/tonne as exceptional harvest yields and evolving market dynamics reshape pricing

Rotterdam and Antwerp port congestion delays container shipments through October 2025

Strikes and protests caused severe congestion at Rotterdam and Antwerp ports in October 2025. Container vessels face delays until month-end..

Cocoa prices fall 20% over past month as main crop expectations remain optimistic

Cocoa futures fall 20% in a month as West African main crop expectations remain optimistic. European Q3 grindings beat estimates.

EU considers 300% expansion of Ukrainian egg import quotas amid food safety concerns

The EU weighs a 300% expansion of Ukrainian egg import quotas as antibiotic residue detections raise food safety concerns for industrial egg users.

Global grain surplus puts buyers in control as sellers compete for market share

Record wheat, corn and barley harvests have put buyers in control, with French wheat flour up EUR 2/mt to EUR 284/mt on firmer Euronext milling wheat.

HPAI returns to Northern Europe after months of calm

Avian influenza outbreaks have returned to the Netherlands and Denmark, marking the start of the winter risk period as shell egg prices move seasonally up.

European cheese prices fall as milk production surpluses mount

European cheese prices decline across Gouda, Mozzarella, Cheddar and Emmental as milk production surpluses of 5-7% YOY create abundant supply

European sugar prices trade below import parity while 2026 acreage faces potential cuts

European beet belt sugar prices are trading below the €586 per tonne import parity threshold, while early data points to a 3% acreage cut for 2026.

Sunflower oil prices climb as crop forecasts deteriorate across key producing regions

Crude sunflower oil for November-December delivery rose $10/mt to $1,360/mt at Ukrainian ports, as crop forecasts in Ukraine and Russia keep deteriorating.

Coffee futures decline 17.7 cents to 373.60 cents per pound

Coffee prices dropped to 373.60 cents/lb last week. Brazilian rainfall supports 26/27 crop development with expectations of 5+ million bags..

Butter, SMP and WMP tip in buyers' favor amid Q4 oversupply

Global dairy markets favour buyers as heavy stocks meet weak demand, with butter, SMP and WMP prices falling and production cost margins narrowing into Q4.

Whey protein supply runs low as Q4 volumes sell out

Whey proteins are bucking broad dairy weakness as Q4 volumes grow scarce, with WPC80 holding above €12,000/mt and WPI tightening further still.

Cartonboard markets show regional divergence as capacity shifts reshape supply dynamics

Western Europe and Asia face contrasting cartonboard market dynamics as new capacity and mill closures reshape regional supply.

European sugar prices fall below import parity amid 2025 harvest season

European white sugar for 2026 delivery has dropped below import parity for the first time in a year, opening a rare window for manufacturers to cover.

How the EUDR delay is influencing cocoa prices and market structure

Discover how the EUDR delay, market structure shifts, and hedge fund shorts are influencing cocoa prices and procurement strategies.

Polish sugar beet growers earn €52.55 per tonne, highest in Europe with EU subsidy support

Polish sugar beet farmers receive €52.55 per tonne, the highest in Europe, while still drawing EU subsidies designed to support less competitive regions.

European cheese markets face downward pressure as supply outpaces demand

European cheese is under pressure with Gouda at €3,170/mt and Mozzarella at €3,120/mt, as buyers move hand-to-mouth and high milk prices squeeze margins.

Raw sugar futures recover as Brazilian mills eye ethanol production shift

Raw sugar futures bounced back to 16.1 cents/lb as Brazilian mills signal potential pivot to ethanol production. European yields exceed forecasts..

Palm oil markets face competing pressures as policy shifts collide with tightening supply signals

BMD crude palm oil fell to $1,026/mt from $1,038/mt as Argentina's tax suspension triggered soybean oil sales, even as Malaysian production data hinted tighter.

European whey protein concentrate hits price ceiling as production declines persist

European WPC80 has stabilised around €12,150/mt while US markets keep climbing, with production down more than 10% across regions on processor cutbacks.

Global butter prices plummet as oversupply hits all major markets

Butter has fallen below ten-year averages as milk production surges 5.44% in the US and 2.46% in New Zealand, with CME butter down to $1.68 per pound.

Ukrainian rapeseed export delays drive European oil prices higher

MATIF rapeseed rose EUR 1/mt to EUR 471/mt and crude rapeseed oil FOB Dutch Mill to EUR 1,110/mt, as Ukrainian export delays limit harvest-period supply.

EU deforestation rules create compliance challenges for cocoa exporters

The EU deforestation regulation poses major compliance challenges for cocoa exporters and their tracking systems, though a second delay may bring relief.

EU sugar prices tumble €25 per tonne as harvest outlook brightens

European sugar corrected sharply, with prices falling about €25 per tonne across the EU beet belt on exceptionally good harvest conditions this season.

Starch markets show mixed signals as industrial demand softens

September starch markets are mixed, with European potato starch facing oversupply while tapioca demand from Chinese manufacturers stays robust.

US dairy prices tumble as global competition intensifies

US butter has dropped to $1.805/lb with NFDM at its weakest in months, as European markets soften and EUR/USD shifts intensify global export competition.

Cheese markets under pressure as European and US spot prices decline

EU and US cheese markets face pressure as buyers delay purchases and spot prices decline across Cheddar, Gouda, Mozzarella varieties.

Rapeseed oil prices increase on Ukrainian export disruptions and strong rival oils

Rapeseed oil rose EUR 20/mt to EUR 1,081/mt as unclear Ukrainian export mechanisms and rival vegetable oil strength provide support.

US dairy markets fall through support levels as milk oversupply weighs on prices

CME butter fell through the $2/lb support level in a bearish week, as milk production up 3.45% year on year keeps expanding the pool and crushing prices.

European sugar harvest begins with mixed crop conditions and trade uncertainties

Europe's sugar beet harvest has begun across most regions, with processors ramping up against variable crop conditions and shifting trade policy.

Global dairy markets plunge as oversupply overwhelms demand across all categories

Global dairy markets plunge as unprecedented milk oversupply overwhelms demand. Analysis of butter crash, SMP weakness, and production cycle implications.

Global dairy markets tumble as demand weakness triggers widespread price declines

Dairy markets face sharp declines as demand weakness triggers widespread selling. Butter approaches critical $2/lb level while milk powder prices fall over 5% a

Canadian canola exports to EU face certification bottleneck while trade tensions with China persist

Canadian canola exports to EU may be capped at 2-4 MMT due to biodiesel certification requirements, forcing exporters to redirect volumes.

European butter prices drop to €6,700/mt as supply surplus reaches 56,500mt

European butter has fallen to €6,700/mt as the supply surplus reaches 56,500 mt, with butter prices declining across all major regions and buyers in control.

Container shipping rates drop 6% in single week as peak season ends

Container spot rates fell 6% in a week as peak season ends, with Shanghai-Rotterdam showing the steepest decline of any major lane on Drewry's index.

European cheese markets show widening price spreads

European cheese shows €500/mt spreads between buyer bids and seller offers in late August, leaving Cheddar, Gouda and Mozzarella markets under pressure.

Starch procurement faces uncertainty as Trump tariffs reshape supply chains

Trump's 10% tariffs on major starch exporters create procurement challenges as food demand stays strong but industrial applications weaken.

Dairy fat prices correct lower as milk production increases globally

Global dairy fat prices face downward pressure from record milk production while whey protein markets enter tight Q4 purchasing window.

Coffee futures rally 32 cents in one week amid Brazilian import tariffs

Coffee futures surge to 314.05 cents/lb as 50% US tariffs on Brazilian imports force roasters to restructure supply chains.

Delayed flock refreshment keeps older hens in European production, constraining supply and quality

European egg producers keep older hens in production longer due to delayed flock refreshment, creating supply constraints and quality challenges.

Sugar contract negotiations see delayed activity in European market this year

European sugar contracting is running later than the usual June-July window, as elevated 2024 production leaves higher stock availability across the market.

China UCO exports rise as US policy limits biodiesel feedstock imports

Chinese UCO exports jumped to 262,000 mt in June while US imports plummeted to 93,524 mt following new biofuel credit policies.

European cheese prices face summer pressure as trading activity slows

European cheese prices face summer pressure with cheddar at €4,430/mt, gouda at €4,050/mt, and mozzarella at €4,000/mt as trading activity slows.

European butter market under pressure amid summer slowdown

European butter prices edge below €7,000/mt as summer trade stays subdued, with sellers holding out rather than cutting further in hope of an August pickup.

How EUR/USD exchange rate shifts are affecting global dairy prices

A move from 1.17 to 1.15 in EUR/USD has already shifted export competitiveness and price levels across European dairy, from SMP through to butter.

Cocoa prices rise as supply concerns outweigh demand destruction

Cocoa prices rise despite weak demand as West African production concerns outweigh processing declines | Market Analysis.

Port congestion hits European hubs while new US trade deals impact supply chains

Rotterdam, Antwerp, and Hamburg experience container delays, while Trump's 15% EU tariff deal reshapes global commodity flows.

Why are U.S. butter prices declining while Europe and New Zealand’s remain high?

US butter prices have fallen sharply on oversupply while Europe and New Zealand hold at elevated levels, showing how far regional supply balances diverge.

U.S.–Japan trade deal secures key win for dairy exporters amid global market pressure

Learn how this deal provides critical relief for U.S. cheese, whey, and lactose producers facing global competition in Japan.

Global cheese prices slip as summer demand weakens across Europe and US markets

Global cheese markets soften as European summer holidays reduce demand while production remains steady - cheddar, gouda, mozzarella, emmental

Vegetable oil markets show mixed signals as laurics reach historic highs

Latest vegetable oil market analysis reveals coconut oil reaching crisis levels at $2,700/mt while palm oil gains on reduced US tariffs.

European sugar market adjusts as drought breaks and trade dynamics shift

European sugar beet crops get relief as heatwave ends and rainfall arrives. Expert analysis on weather recovery, trading dynamics, and policy impacts.

Biodiesel prices edge higher as feedstock costs rise amid tariff deadline pressure

FAME0 gains $6/mt to $1,322/mt while UCO prices surge. HVO softens as August tariff deadlines approach. LSGO drops $84/mt on trade war fears.

US-EU trade tensions: impact on dairy, olive oil, and baked goods

US President Donald Trump's proposed 30% tariffs on European goods and the EU's countermeasures could significantly impact global food commodity trading.

USDA drastically revises soybean oil outlook as biofuel regulations reshape US demand

USDA projects record 15.5 billion pounds soybean oil for biofuels, cuts exports from 1.7B to 700M bushels. Palm oil and sunflower oil rally.

Biodiesel markets stabilize as "Big Beautiful Bill" reshapes North American feedstock trade

US biofuel law limits feedstocks to North America, challenging Chinese UCO and Brazilian tallow suppliers. LSGO rises $18/mt. Get Vesper's analysis.

European cheese markets adapt strategies as supply pressures mount across categories

European cheese markets face supply pressures as producers adapt strategies. Analysis of cheddar, mozzarella, gouda trading amid currency headwinds.

Sugar prices rally on strong export demand despite soft fundamentals

New York raw sugar futures reversed recent declines as Brazilian vessel line-ups surged and refining demand improved, despite fundamentals still soft.

How rising coconut oil prices are driving up ice cream costs this summer

Rising coconut oil prices have pushed the cost of ice cream and production to soaring levels. What's behind the increase?

European sugar market faces perfect storm of heat, drought, and trade pressures

Heatwaves stress European sugar beet crops as water levels hit record lows. Expert analysis on weather risks, trade policy impacts, and market outlook.

US dairy markets rally across all products as July 4th legislation drives optimism

US dairy prices surge across all CME products as new congressional legislation boosts markets. Butter and cheese hit production records in May data.

Biodiesel markets show mixed signals as geopolitical tensions support LSGO prices

FAME0 and UCOME rise on higher LSGO prices while RME drops on harvest pressure, with German HVO demand expected to quadruple this year.

European whey markets face demand drought as Chinese buyers return to US suppliers

European whey markets face challenges as Chinese buyers return to US suppliers. Analysis of sweet whey powder, protein concentrates, and trade dynamics.

Cocoa prices drop as Ghana boosts crop forecast, but weather risks loom large

New York cocoa falls to $9,000 as Ghana increases crop forecast 8.3%. Côte d'Ivoire arrivals up 5.7% but rainfall concerns persist in West Africa.

Egg powder producers face mounting pressure as shell prices remain firm

European egg markets resist summer price drops while US processing hits 2025 highs. Powder producers face mounting pressure as shell egg prices remain stable.

European cheese markets show mixed signals as Q2 ends

European cheese markets face inventory pressure as Q2 winds down. Mozzarella prices fall to €4,150/mt, cheddar drops 20%, while Emmental holds steady.

Sugar prices under pressure as energy markets shift: What traders need to know

Sugar futures decline as oil prices drop and energy-ethanol dynamics shift. Get expert analysis on Brazil production and EU crop risks.

Vegetable oils market declines as Middle East tensions cool

Palm oil, soy oil, and rapeseed prices fall as crude oil drops $5/barrel amid Israel-Iran ceasefire. Get Vesper's Week 26 market analysis.

Biodiesel prices strengthen on geopolitical tensions and EPA mandate boost

Week 25: biodiesel markets strengthen as the Iran conflict lifts the energy complex and the EPA proposes 5.61 billion gallon biofuel blending targets.

Cocoa markets find stability as weather shifts from drought to flood concerns

Cocoa futures find stability after volatile period, but excessive rainfall in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana raises new supply concerns.

Global whey markets navigate trade uncertainty as Chinese demand shifts between US and Europe

Latest whey powder market trends as Chinese demand shifts between US and Europe. Expert analysis on WPC80, SWP, and WPI.

US dairy markets retreat from recent highs as seasonal patterns emerge

Latest US dairy market update shows cheese prices pulling back from highs while trans-Atlantic protein spreads remain wide.

Vegetable oil prices surge as geopolitical tensions and biofuel mandates drive market volatility

Vegetable oil markets surge as Brent crude hits $73.23/barrel amid Israel-Iran conflict and EPA proposes higher biofuel targets.

Global starch market outlook: June 2025 trade analysis shows price stability amid supply chain disruptions

Latest starch market intelligence reveals price stability across corn, potato, tapioca & wheat sectors despite trade disruptions.

Biodiesel prices surge as ISCC certificate suspension rocks European market

Week 24: FOB ARA biodiesel prices climb after ISCC certification is suspended for a major European biorefinery and petroleum diesel fundamentals firm.

Sugar prices hit four-year low as global surplus outlook emerges

Sugar futures hit lowest levels since 2021 as global surplus emerges. Brazil production recovers while European markets face mixed signals.

Vegetable oil markets face supply uncertainty as rapeseed crops disappoint

Rapeseed crops disappoint as EU production cut to 18.6M tons. Palm oil pressured by Malaysian inventory while soy complex gains on energy rally.

Biodiesel markets caught in regulatory whirlwind as policy uncertainty deepens

Washington's tariff reversals create biodiesel market paralysis. Congressional incentives pending while feedstock flows shift.

Global Vegetable Oil markets face tariff turbulence and weather uncertainty

Vegetable oil prices volatile as 50% EU tariffs flip daily while weather threatens crops. Palm, soy, rapeseed & sunflower oil analysis + AI forecasts.

Whey markets struggle to find middle ground as trade tensions intensify

Whey ingredient prices hit extremes as trade tensions disrupt markets. WPC80 up 255% in 2 years while lactose, WPI show volatile swings.

Biodiesel markets face mixed pressures as feedstock dynamics shift in late May 2025

European biodiesel prices diverge in late May 2025 as FOB ARA UCOME slips, UCO imports surge 17% and RME strengthens on rapeseed supply concerns.

Global Egg markets show signs of stability as Avian Flu pressures begin to ease

European egg prices defy seasonal expectations while US markets correct following Memorial Day. Avian flu impacts ease as markets show cautious optimism.

European cheese markets show signs of tightening as Q3 demand accelerates

European cheese prices stabilise as buyers return for June and Q3 volumes, with Mozzarella at €4,130/mt and production constraints looming into the autumn.

Sugar prices under pressure as global surplus expectations dominate market sentiment

Global sugar surplus drives prices lower despite European beet acreage cuts and drought stress. Raw sugar hits 17.2 cents/lb.

Dairy market weekly: Stalemate continues as butter and powder markets seek direction

Weekly VPI: European butter holds at €7,200/mt on rising cream prices while SMP retreats to €2,380/mt, with buyers cautious about second-half trends.

US-China tariff relief reshapes global whey and lactose markets

Latest Vesper Price Index shows European WPC80 at €12,000/mt while US prices hover at €9,249/mt amid temporary China tariff reductions.

Biodiesel market watch week 20: UCO prices under pressure on higher supply to EU

Week 20 biodiesel analysis: UCO prices weaken in China and Europe as softer demand meets rising EU supply, with imports up 16.8% on US import tariffs.

European cheese market update: Buyers find no bargains as demand surges

European cheese consumption surges 16.91% YOY, driving unexpected price increases despite peak production. Get the latest on cheddar, gouda, emmental and mozzar

Sugar market analysis: Short-term volatility amidst long-term pressure

Vesper's latest sugar market analysis reveals short-term price support from Brazil's 53% production drop, while long-term bearish pressure looms from India and

US-China trade tensions create pricing arbitrage opportunities in global dairy markets

Latest Vesper Price Index reveals significant arbitrage opportunities in global dairy markets with EU WPC80 prices 33% higher than US. Discover how shifting tra

CBOT Soybean Oil Reclaims Premium Over BMD Crude Palm Oil After Prolonged Discount

Soybean oil has moved back above palm oil after a prolonged discount, on shifts in supply patterns, currencies and trade signals across both of these markets.

US dairy markets hold steady amid global economic turbulence, tariff negotiations critical for export outlook

Discover how US dairy markets remain stable amid economic turbulence, with February production trends and 90-day tariff negotiations reshaping export dynamics.

Biodiesel markets react to Trump's tariff pause

Biodiesel markets rebound as Trump pauses tariffs for 90 days while escalating the China trade war to 125%, leaving traders to price fresh uncertainty.

Global dairy market shifts as US-China tariffs reshape whey trade flows

China's 104% tariffs on US whey products are reshaping global dairy trade flows, pushing Chinese buyers toward European suppliers instead.

Global vegetable oil markets disrupted by Trump's 10-50% tariff policy: Palm, Soy, Rapeseed, and Sunflower Oil impacts

Trump's 10 to 50% tariffs are rippling through global vegetable oil markets. What palm, soybean, rapeseed and sunflower oil buyers need to know right now.

Dairy market turbulence: Navigating uncertainty in global Butter, SMP, and WMP markets

New US import tariffs have triggered market-wide dairy disruption. Where butter, SMP and WMP prices now stand, and how far the regional gaps have opened.

Global biodiesel markets brace for impact as Trump imposes sweeping tariffs

New Trump tariffs of up to 54% on China trigger 44% retaliatory tax on US soybeans while threatening 2.5MMT of UCO imports.

Global dairy markets face perfect storm: US tariffs, FMD, and supply imbalances

New US tariffs, China's retaliation and foot-and-mouth cases in Europe are converging to reshape global dairy trade patterns and regional supply balances.

Biodiesel market sees positive shift as prices rise and feedstock costs decline

The biodiesel market sees renewed optimism in March 2025, with rising prices, higher liquidity, and improved margins as waste feedstock costs decline.

Butter finds buyers while powder markets struggle

Latest dairy market analysis shows European butter selling rapidly despite price adjustments, while SMP and WMP markets struggle with weak global demand.

Whey protein markets: diverging paths between concentrates and sweet whey powder

Latest whey market analysis reveals supply constraints driving WPC80 and WPI prices, while sweet whey powder buyers remain hesitant ahead of Q2.

US dairy market update: FMD concerns, cheese prices fall amid production shifts

Latest US dairy market analysis shows declining cheese prices despite regional production growth, while FMD crosses borders in Europe.

Canola Market Faces Pressure: MATIF Rapeseed and ICE Canola Prices Tumble Amid China's Tariff Implementation

MATIF rapeseed and ICE canola prices tumble as China imposes 100% tariff on Canadian canola products. European markets brace for influx while Australia raises p

Biodiesel market update: prices decline amid increased Asian supply

Week 8 biodiesel update: Prices drop as Asian imports impact demand. Stay informed on feedstock trends and biofuel policy shifts.

Vegetable oils market analysis – week 8: palm oil prices drop amid lower Indian imports

Palm oil prices drop as India’s imports hit a 14-year low, while Indonesia’s exports surge. Get the latest market insights.

EU enforces final anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese Biodiesel – market reacts

EU enforces final anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese biodiesel, cutting exports to record lows and reshaping global trade. Explore the market impact.

Egg Prices Increase Amid Avian Influenza Crisis: What You Need to Know

Egg prices are skyrocketing as Avian Influenza disrupts global supply chains. Discover to what extent egg shortages are worsening.

Key Drivers Behind the Rise in European White Sugar Prices and What to Expect in 2025

European white sugar prices have risen since October 2024 on supply constraints, adverse weather and strong global demand. What to expect through 2025.

The Global Impact of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) on the Dairy Market

Explore the impact of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) on the global dairy market, from price shifts and buyer preferences to trade bans.

Global Biodiesel and Vegetable Oil Markets See Mixed Movements Amid Political and Economic Developments

Explore the latest trends in biodiesel and vegetable oil markets, including price drops, regulatory updates, and global supply forecasts.

How the Dairy Market is Reacting to Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Germany: Impact on Butter, SMP, and WMP Exports and Prices

Explore how foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Germany is disrupting the dairy market. Get insights on the impact on butter, SMP, and WMP prices

Butter Market Faces Uncertainty: Price Declines and Bumpy Road Ahead

Explore the uncertainty in the butter market, with expected volatility ahead. Stay informed on what is shaping the 2025 outlook

Global Sugar Market Update: Pressure on global prices persists

Pressure on global sugar prices, production declines in Brazil & Europe, and the outlook for 2025. Stay informed with Vesper.

Biodiesel Market Update: Key Trends Driving Price Dynamics

Biodiesel prices have dropped sharply on softer demand and a steep decline in used cooking oil values. The key trends now shaping pricing across regions.

European Sugar Market Update: Is This the Optimal Buying Window for European Buyers?

The JRC MARS bulletin revised the EU27 sugar beet yield forecast up to 75.4 tonnes per hectare, above September's 74.7 and the five-year average of 73.2.

4 Key Factors Driving Biodiesel Prices to New Highs

Discover the top 4 factors driving biodiesel prices to new highs, from increased demand and German regulations to supply disruptions.

U.S. Clean Fuels Tax Credit (45Z) Guidance Looms, Poised to Shake Up Vegetable Oil and Biofuel Markets

Explore the 45Z tax credit's impact on biofuels, U.S.-sourced feedstocks, and global vegetable oil trade as industry awaits new guidance.

Sucrose Levels Are Falling Below the 5-Year Average in Parts of Europe Due to Unfavorable Weather Patterns

Heavy rainfall and humidity in Germany and France are causing sucrose levels in sugar beets to fall below the 5-year average.

Canadian Canola Shipments Rise Amid Chinese Buyers' Uncertainty Over Antidumping Investigation

Canadian canola shipments surge amid Chinese antidumping concerns, as MATIF rapeseed prices rise and ICE Canola holds steady. Explore the market impact.

Cheese Market Update: Prices Fall as Milk Supply Concerns Ease

Cheese prices drop as milk supply stabilizes in Europe and North America. Market outlook predicts price stabilization in early 2025

Sugar Prices Remain Elevated as CS Brazil Falls Short: Discover How Future Forecasts Impact the Market

CS Brazil’s sugar production drops 16.21% YoY in September on unfavorable weather and lower cane crush, keeping global sugar prices elevated.

POME Market Update: Price Movements and Regulatory Changes

The latest insights on BMD Crude Palm Oil prices, Malaysia's palm oil stocks, and rising POME prices and Indonesia's new export regulations.

Upward Pressure for Global Lactose Prices

Global lactose prices rise due to tightening supply and strong demand, with the EU and US Vesper Price Indices reflecting increased costs.

How Middle East Tensions Are Shaping the Biodiesel and Feedstock Markets

Explore the latest trends in the EU biodiesel and feedstock markets, influenced by fluctuations in LSGO prices amid Middle East tensions.

Palm Oil Hits Yearly High Amid Surging Brent Crude Prices

Palm oil prices hit a yearly high, climbing above 4,300 MYR per metric ton, as Brent crude oil surges 12.1% on Middle East geopolitical tensions.

EUDR-compliant S.G. Low Moah Crude Palm Oil Benchmark Rises Week-Over-Week

Vesper's EUDR-compliant S.G. Low Moah crude palm oil benchmark rose week over week, with BMD CPO November futures climbing to MYR 4,074/mt from MYR 3,766/mt.

European Butter Prices Hit Record Highs – What Do Butter Price Forecasts Say?

European butter prices reach an all-time high of €8000/mt. Discover key factors driving this rise and what butter price forecasts predict.

Vegetable Oils Prices Down as Brent Crude Oil Hits Lowest Level This Year

Brent crude oil hits a yearly low, leading to a decline in palm oil, soybean oil, and other vegetable oil benchmarks. View the latest prices.

Cheese Market Stabilizes After Surge: What Buyers Need to Know About Price Trends and Forecasts

Discover current price trends for Cheese - After a rapid surge, cheese prices have stabilized, raising questions about sustainability.

BMD Palm Maintains Tight Spread with CBOT Soy Oil Amid Historically Low June and July (est. by Vesper) Indonesia Stocks

Explore how BMD palm oil prices are maintaining a tight spread with CBOT soybean oil amid supply and demand shifts in Indonesia.

Record High Cream Prices Propel European Butter Market to New Heights: Price Forecast Indicates Further Increases

European cream prices have hit record highs, breaking through €10,000/mt and pushing butter prices to skyrocket again across the dairy sector.

Animal Fats Prices Fail to Grow with Veg Oil Prices Due to Pressure from Low Demand

Vegetable oil prices are rising on higher Brent crude, US weather risk and Indonesian biofuel mandates, while animal fats stay flat on weak demand.

Olive Oil Price Forecasts: Market Shifts as Stocks Deplete in Italy and Spain

Italian olive oil stocks are running low, prompting increased imports from Spain to meet demand. Discover the impact on olive oil prices.

European Cheese Market Sees Price Increases and Potential Tight Supply in Q4 2024 according to Price Forecasts

Discover the latest trends in the European cheese market as Gouda, Emmental, Mozzarella, and Cheddar Curd experience significant price hikes.

How will India’s and Brazil’s Sugar Production Projections Impact Global Prices?

Learn how India’s and Brazil’s sugar production forecasts may impact global prices, and explore Vesper’s price forecast predictions.

More Attention to Sustainable Aviation Fuel as EU Excludes It from Antidumping Duties

Discover how the European Commission's latest anti-dumping measures impact biodiesel markets and why SAF is gaining strategic importance.

Early signs of trouble ahead in the global sugar market

The sugar market sees a price rise due to concerns over CS Brazil's 24/25 sugar output potentially falling short from early drought.

Butter Market Update: Tight Supply and Steady Demand Keep Prices High

The EU Vesper Price Index for butter stands at €6,600/mt EXW as of June 19, 2024, with Oceania at €6,797 and the US at €6,466. The drivers behind the levels.

Biodiesel Prices Drop from Highs Amid LSGO Decline

Despite a recent decline, biodiesel values remain elevated, influenced by the Israel-Hamas conflict and OPEC+'s production decisions.

Valorisation of butter and SMP catches up with cheese in European market

Butter and SMP valorisation has caught up with cheese in Europe, as tight supplies, lower production and firm demand lift prices in the EU, US and New Zealand.

Rapeseed complex is stronger w-o-w on weather worries

Discover how adverse weather conditions in key regions are driving up rapeseed and canola prices. Explore the latest price increases here.

Dairy Market: European liquids prices are through the roof, with cream reaching extremely high

Discover the latest trends in the European dairy market. Declining milk production and more buyers influencing butter, SMP, and WMP prices.

Palm Oil Update: Higher Freight Rates and Improved Production

Stay informed with the latest in the palm oil market. Explore the impact of increased freight rates and enhanced production on the industry.

Biodiesels and feedstock up, EU biofuel processing margins still tight

The latest in EU biodiesel dynamics: Prices firm amid rising feedstock costs and tight margins, with transport challenges affecting market

Global Palm Oil Prices Slide Amidst Recovering Production and Export Challenges

Explore the decline in global palm oil prices due to increased Malaysian production and reduced exports, impacting stock levels.

Biodiesel Market Update: Feed Prices are Firm, but the Trading Activity is Limited

Biodiesel market update: EU biodiesel prices drop amidst increasing Argentine SME imports, while feedstock price remain stable.

Dairy Market Update: Fluctuations in Liquid Milk Prices

Understand the trends affecting raw milk, cream, SMC, and whey concentrate prices, and discover the implications of regional price variations

Prices plunge in the sugar market, as supply concern fades

Sugar prices fell sharply last week, returning to January 2023 levels as supply concerns. Get detailed insights on price changes here.

Prices for Biodiesel Fall due to High Crude Oil Supply

Understand the impact of high crude oil supplies, gasoil market shifts, and feedstock price declines on biodiesel markets.

High Global Demand Tightens Butter Market, with Cream Prices Hitting Yearly High

Discover the European butter market's challenges: supply shortages, record-high cream prices, and rising global demand tightening the market.

Biodiesel and Feedstock Experience a Downward Trend, but Freight Costs are Still of Concern

Explore the latest trends in the biodiesel and feedstock market, with significant reductions recorded in our pricing index.

Increase in West-EU Biodiesel Prices Following New Legislations and Import Duties

Explore the significant increase in West-EU biodiesel prices driven by new German legislation and anticipated import duties.

Germany allows HVO100 and B10 sales at gas stations, driving ARA biodiesels up

RME, UCOME, FAME 0, and HVO (UCO) prices have all soared in West-EU markets in response to Germany's B10 and HVO100 pump sales policy change.

Impact of O.N.I.L. volumes on global SMP market

Algeria's O.N.I.L has tendered for SMP and WMP delivery between June and September. How the volumes are landing on an already bearish global SMP market.

Rising EU Biodiesel Prices: Insights from the Latest Report

Explore the surge in Vesper West-EU Price Index for RME, UCOME, and FAME 0, and understand the drivers behind this increase.

Diverging production outputs from global sugar markets

Dubai & Datagro Conferences reveal a lower cane availability in CS Brazil, while India's pivotal export changes affect global sugar prices.

The Relationship between Biodiesel Prices Increases and Used Cooking Oil

Discover the latest dynamics in the EU biodiesel market with a notable uptick in prices across RME, UCOME, and FAME0 indices.

EU Sugar Production Forecast for 2024/2025, including Pricing Insights

Stay ahead with our EU Sugar Production Forecast for 2024/2025. Get insights into beet cultivation, market trends, and price indices.

Will EU palm oil prices stay at a premium to other vegetable oils?

Discover how the Red Sea crisis and high origin prices impact palm oil prices. Will EU palm oil prices stay at a premium?

Exploring the Latest Sugar Market Sentiment: Outlook and Trends

Explore the latest sugar market outlook: global prices show minimal fluctuation as Brazil's Center-South early harvest approaches.

Palm Oil and Soybean Oil Prices: Latest Updates and Future Projections

Stay updated on palm oil and soybean oil prices, with insights from the latest MPOB report and impact of mineral oil price.

European cheese market: Sentiment changes quickly, but fundamentals do not

Discover European cheese market trends: Despite a clear outlook, positive GDT events and dairy fat price fluctuations bring uncertainty.

Biodiesel prices are now at their lowest levels since June 2023

Biodiesel Prices Plummet: Discover the four reasons behind the decrease in biodiesel prices, now at their lowest levels since June 2023.

Vegetable oils, except palm oil, have weakened since the last report, influenced by the Red Sea crisis and a bumper soybean supply.

Vegetable oils other than palm have weakened on the Red Sea crisis and bumper soybean supply, while heavy Malaysian rain cut January palm oil output.

Weakened EU biodiesel complex due to sluggish demand and an increase in feedstock prices

The EU biodiesel complex has weakened since the previous report. Check out the latest price for RME, FAME, UCOME, and UCO here.

Weaker European Cheese Market due to Inactivity

Explore the current state of the European cheese market, facing a downturn due to inactivity among buyers and suppliers.

Soybean oil complex strengthens on massive new Phillips 66 renewable diesel plant

CBOT soybean oil settled up at $973/mt from $952/mt and soybeans recovered to $411/mt, with traders citing the new Phillips 66 renewable diesel plant.

Unexpected Biodiesel Price Decline Amidst LSGO and Vegetable Oil Increase

Explore why RME, UCOME, and FAME biodiesel prices have weakened since the previous report, with input from Vesper's global network of contacts.

Dairy market insights: Price gaps for butter and powder are decreasing among the major producing regions

Explore the latest dairy market update revealing a significant reduction in butter price gaps across major regions (Europe, Oceania, US).

Biodiesel market update: Growing interest to buy, yet making consensus on pricing remains a challenge

The European biodiesel complex has strengthened again on higher LSGO prices and steady buying interest, but buyers and sellers still cannot agree on price.

Vegetable oil market update: Global palm oil and soybean oil prices up on bullish MPOB and neutral-slightly bullish WASDE report

Vegetable oil market update: Discover the impact of increased Brent Crude Oil prices and bullish MPOB and WASDE report on prices