Europe and the US have swapped places. European egg prices are rising again after four months of decline, while American prices have fallen for a third straight week, with the drop now widening from the largest sizes into Large.
Europe’s move is seasonal. Holidays are ending, shops are restocking, works canteens are reopening, and processing companies are already buying ahead of autumn. Underneath that, summer heat has shrunk egg weights, so the heaviest size classes are scarce even though the market overall is broadly in balance. Since supermarket packs are typically built around the larger classes, that shortage falls hardest on retail specifications, while buyers who can use a mixed-weight product barely feel it. France is the exception to the region’s firming trend, with prices capped by import competition, while Germany and the Netherlands, drawing on the same continental supply, are seeing the opposite. The difference comes down to where imported eggs land: certified and barn-raised specifications common in Germany often rule out imports, while France’s processing trade takes them more readily. A thinner flock is adding to the tightness too. Poland, one of the EU’s largest exporters of eggs within the bloc, has recorded 52 Newcastle disease outbreaks since January with roughly 3.77 million birds culled, and replacement takes months. That removes part of the ceiling that cheap Polish imports have placed on Western European prices for most of this year, just as demand returns for autumn. Vesper’s outlook points to continued gains into September and October, with German, Dutch, Belgian and French quotations now all moving in the same direction.
The US picture is a mirror image, according to LEAP Market Analytics. Wholesale prices for large white shell eggs have slipped below $1 a dozen in the New York metro market, extending a decline now in its third week, as the heat-driven weight losses that shrank supply this summer have reversed and egg-laying hens are back to producing heavier eggs. Shell egg stocks have climbed to 1.47 million cases, above both last year and the five-year average. USDA-AMS data shows domestic per-capita egg availability running 2.1% ahead of last year in the first half of 2026, with LEAP expecting that growth to accelerate into the 3-4% range through year-end. Retail prices haven’t kept pace with the wholesale slide: Bureau of Labor Statistics data puts the average retail price for large grade-A eggs at $2.19 a dozen in July, still well below last year’s $3.60, leaving a retail-to-wholesale spread that LEAP describes as the widest in more than two decades. Demand, more than supply, is what turned the US market: the seasonal cooling now underway suggests the summer’s tight cover was driven more by demand than by scarcity, even as the ongoing risk of avian influenza keeps the outlook for the coming months harder to call.
