United States news

Bird flu reaches Dutch layer farms while egg prices stall

Avian influenza reached commercial laying hens in the Netherlands, yet Europe's egg prices stayed flat and only organic and free-range supply is short.

Euronext wheat falls on Black Sea deal talk while corn climbs

Euronext wheat fell about 8% in two weeks on talk of a Black Sea deal, while Euronext corn rose as MARS cut its EU corn yield forecast again.

Halloween chocolate sales post their biggest drop since 2023

US Halloween chocolate sales fell $33 million, the biggest drop since 2023, while Mondelez plans price cuts in Europe and cocoa stays range-bound.

SMP hits a GDT high not seen since 2022 while butter slides

SMP rose 3.1% at the Global Dairy Trade auction to its highest since June 2022, while butter fell another 4.7% with stocks high in every exporting region.

US beef packers fall back underwater as the cutout weakens

US packers lost money last week for the first time since mid-August as the choice beef cutout headed for its lowest average since late July, LEAP reports.

US breast meat firms out of season while chick placements slow

US boneless skinless breast meat caught a rare autumn bid while weekly broiler chick placements fell to their smallest total of 2026, LEAP reports.

WPC80 falls level with MPC85, and reformulation turns around

European WPC80 has fallen to the level of MPC85, removing the price reason to switch to milk protein, and the rest of the whey market is now following it down.

Cheese spot markets jumped while the supply picture stayed heavy

Mozzarella and Gouda tightened in Europe while US blocks rose about 18% in under a week on two recalls, with the cheese fundamentals unchanged underneath.

Feedyard losses near $500 a head, and placements fell 12%

September placements came in below every analyst estimate at a 12% drop, with feedyards absorbing losses near $500 a head and slow-rolling cattle in.

Lula's win knocked Brazil's currency, and sugar went with it

The real posted its biggest drawdown since 1999 after Lula's re-election, pulling raw sugar nearly 5% lower in a single session with fund length already high.

Record EU broiler supply meets the worst Newcastle year in two decades

EU broiler prices eased for a second week on record production, while Newcastle Disease outbreaks hit a 20-year high and Polish prices fell to a 2021 low.

US broiler weights are flattening after decades of gains

Six-week average liveweight was 1.7% below a year ago, and LEAP sees bird weights turning from a growth engine into a neutral one, tightening 2027 supply.

US butter stocks drew down at half last year's pace

Butter left US warehouses at half last autumn's rate even though it was cheaper, leaving stocks 16.5% above a year ago heading into the holiday drawdown.

Chocolate demand splits: Lindt cuts guidance, Nestlé grows volume

Lindt cut its full-year sales guidance and lost its chief executive while Nestlé grew chocolate volumes 5.4%, leaving cocoa demand without one direction.

Middle East oil is flowing again at five times the freight cost

Middle East oil exports are back at pre-war volumes, but a barrel shipped from the Gulf to Asia now costs more than five times what it did before the conflict.

Rapeseed oil takes the lead while sunflower oil's rally stalls

Rapeseed oil rose about 5% on the week as China bought close to 1 million tonnes of Australian canola, while sunflower oil's rally paused on Black Sea talks.

US frozen egg stocks hit an 11-month low and prices stay put

Frozen egg stocks ended September 21% below the five-year average, yet US egg prices have not responded and processors are in no hurry to restock.

Euronext opens butter and SMP futures on the Vesper index

Euronext began trading butter and SMP futures this week, both settling on the Vesper Price Index, as EU, US and New Zealand milk all came in on expectations.

The US table egg flock shrank in September, which rarely happens

Layer inventories usually build through September. This year they slipped, and the last two times that happened there were clear reasons behind it.

Asian cartonboard output surges while Western Europe slips again

Cartonboard demand grew globally in July, but the regional picture split three ways, and falling Asian prices suggest the new volume has not found buyers yet.

China's tissue growth is distorting the global demand picture

Western Europe and North America both fell for a third straight month in July while China grew again, and EMGE suspects that volume is filling inventories.

Europe's cocoa grindings turn positive for the first time since 2024

Q3 grindings showed Europe growing again after two years of decline and Asia processing record volumes, but cocoa futures barely reacted to either number.

Nobody wants to be the buyer who stops WPC80 falling

European WPC80 has fallen again, bids and offers are far apart, and almost nothing is trading. Every week of waiting has paid off for buyers so far.

Protein wants more skim while butter has too much fat

Milk is plentiful in every major exporting region, but the fat half and the protein half of that milk are pulling in opposite directions as the year winds down.

Ribs are holding the US beef cutout up on their own

Every primal except the rib is set to decline this week, and LEAP reads the split as a picture of what is happening to US consumers at different income levels.

Sunflower oil climbs again while soybean oil slides into harvest

A physical sunflower oil shortage keeps pulling prices higher while the US harvest presses on soybean oil, leaving the complex without one direction.

US broiler growth is slowing toward the first down year since 2012

September hatchings barely grew, breeder productivity fell for a third straight month, and LEAP now expects US broiler production to ease back in 2027.

European cheese holds steady while US Cheddar blocks jump

Europe's cheese slide has paused, with Gouda and Mozzarella stable and Cheddar firm, while CME Cheddar blocks rallied from $1.27 to $1.53 a pound in two weeks.

Europe's egg market waits for its autumn lift, with organic still short

European egg prices have barely moved in two weeks and the usual October lift is late, while organic, free-range and extra-large eggs stay hard to find.

France's corn crop is the smallest on record and Euronext noticed

France cut its 2026 corn forecast to the lowest level in ministry records going back to 1980, and Euronext corn jumped to new highs on the back of it.

German HVO100 demand is on course to double this year

HVO100 has traded below B7 diesel across Germany since mid-August for the first time, and 2026 consumption is now put at more than double last year's.

LEAP sees the US choice beef cutout down 5% to 10% in 2027

Wholesale beef demand has softened, retail beef hit an eight-month low in September, and LEAP Market Analytics expects lower cattle prices through year-end.

LEAP targets a 15% to 20% rise in US breast meat prices for 2027

US broiler supply growth is slowing and frozen breast meat stocks are at a two-year low, while LEAP sees room for breast meat prices to rise in 2027.

US egg exports are on track for their best year since 2021

US table egg exports are running 36% ahead of 2025, with Mexico up 41%, but shell egg production grew 8% in the third quarter, faster than exports can absorb.

Cocoa stuck between El Niño risk and a squeezed consumer

London cocoa futures moved just 0.1% on the week. El Niño threatens West African supply, while Lindt cut its 2026 sales outlook for a second time.

India turns to palm oil while sunflower cargoes run short

BMD palm oil rebounded from last week's lows as Indian buyers returned. India's sunflower oil arrivals could fall to 160,000 tonnes in October.

India's Diwali buying lifts almond exports while sales slow

US almond exports rose 31% in August, led by India at 170%. August sales fell 25% and uncommitted 2026 crop inventory more than tripled on last year.

The Q4 window closes on heavy butter and scarce SMP

Milk output is holding up better than feared. Butter sellers are short on time for Q4, while SMP buyers who waited face a market with little product left.

US sweet whey reaches a 2026 high while whey proteins fall

Export demand has lifted US sweet whey powder to its highest level of 2026, while WPC80 keeps falling and hard-to-find specs still cost buyers more.

China buys less dairy but more cheese and butter

China's dairy imports fell 3.7% in milk equivalent this year while its cheese and butter buying rose about 18%. See where US suppliers gained ground in Asia.

European butter loses ground while the market chases protein

EU butter is 28% cheaper than a year ago while SMP is up 56%. See where European butter prices head in our free EU Dairy Q4 2026 outlook.

Sunflower oil rebounds while Black Sea shipping stays stuck

Crude sunflower oil rebounded about 3% this week, while Ukraine's monthly exports halved in August and September. Palm oil kept sliding on the week.

US cheese blocks slide while stocks build

CME cheese blocks are 23.7% below a year ago and US stocks are building. See where US cheese prices head next in our free US Dairy Q4 2026 outlook.

US WPC 80 drops 15% while milk protein keeps climbing

US WPC 80 fell 15% in a month as more American supply reached the market. See where whey and milk protein prices head in our free Q4 outlook.

Black Sea deal hopes pull wheat lower, though a deal looks unlikely

Euronext milling wheat fell to €236/mt as talks on safe Black Sea grain shipping gathered pace, but the parties remain far apart and attacks on ports continue.

Cheese prices soften as production outruns demand

US Cheddar and Mozzarella are leading cheese prices lower as production growth outpaces demand, with US cheese stocks up 2.3% on the year in August.

US eggs turn higher while Europe's rally pauses

US caged white egg prices rose 30.6% in two weeks on stronger demand, while European gains narrowed as record imports cap the caged end of the market.

Palm oil falls to a three-month low on a looser Malaysian balance

BMD palm oil fell 4.7% on a looser Malaysian balance while soy, rapeseed and sunflower oil also slipped. See where Vesper expects prices to turn.

Peanut supply thins abroad while US stocks stay heavy

Argentina, Brazil and India point to smaller peanut crops while the US leans on record carryover, and Alimenta expects international prices to rise.

MPC 85 is setting the floor under a falling WPC80 market

WPC80 prices are falling quickly in Europe and the US as buyers wait, but firm MPC 85 is closing the gap from the other side and limiting how far whey can drop.

Whole milk powder trades below skimmed in New Zealand

New Zealand WMP has slipped below SMP and US NFDM sits above butter, as weak milkfat and firm protein compress the usual spreads across all three dairy regions.

Coffee speculators turn net short for the second time

Investors moved net short on coffee futures as the December contract fell 7.5 cents to 276.4 cents a pound, with Brazil still holding coffee left to sell.

France's corn crop hits a record low condition rating

Only 23% of the French corn crop is rated good or excellent, the lowest in FranceAgriMer's records, while grain prices drifted lower on Black Sea hopes.

Gasoil's 26% climb lifts biodiesel as Hormuz talks stall

Low sulfur gasoil rose 26% to $1,568 a tonne after Strait of Hormuz talks were postponed, pulling FAME and HVO up while used cooking oil eased.

Summer heat leaves Europe short of free range eggs

Organic and free range eggs are scarce on European spot markets after the June and July heat waves, while the US wholesale market has found a floor.

Western Europe's cartonboard demand gives back May's gain

Apparent cartonboard demand in Western Europe fell 8% in June after an above-trend May, while North America grew 3% and Asian demand rose 14% again.

Cheese is back to normal everywhere except across the Atlantic

European cheese offers have thinned as buyers step back, while new US capacity keeps filling with Mozzarella that has to be exported to clear.

October white sugar delivery lands at a third of last year's

Under 500,000 tonnes were delivered against October London white sugar, against over 1.5 million a year ago, while funds built their largest long since 2023.

Record Brazilian shipments leave coffee near flat on the week

Brazil shipped a seasonal record of Arabica and Robusta in August, yet December coffee fell only 0.8 cents on the week. Outside markets explain the gap.

Europe enters winter with gas storage 16 points below normal

European gas storage sits at 68% against an 84% seasonal average, TTF is at three-year highs and the ECB has hiked again. What that means into winter.

Malaysian palm stocks climb 7.5% while Q4 supply looks thinner

August MPOB data put Malaysian palm stocks up 7.5% at 2.82 mmt and BMD prices eased, but the Q4 view is tighter. Rapeseed sowing is the nearer European risk.

Fewer pounds, more dollars in US milk powder exports

US NFDM and SMP exports fell 6.3% in January to July while their value rose 7.9%. Production is climbing, but the product mix is turning toward home.

Cashew packers stop committing forward ahead of the flowering window

Cashew packers are holding back from long-term forward contracts with INC and WMO confirming a strong El Niño over the November to January flowering window.

Fresh 50s fall below $100 after starting August above $150

Fresh 50% lean trimmings have fallen below $100 per cwt from above $150 in early August, implying the weakest 50s demand in two years.

Peanut acres fall 27% into a record carryout

USDA cut 2026 US peanut acres by 27% while carryout sits near a record 1.6 million tons, and 2027 kernels already price above this year's crop.

US cage-free egg supply looks to have peaked below half the flock

Cage-free layer inventories hit a record 150.7 million in August, but growth now trails the total flock and LEAP sees the segment near saturation.

Cocoa drops 12% in a week short on fundamental news

ICE Europe fell 12% and ICE US 11% on little fresh input, while Ghana's proposed farmgate price sits around 75% above the Ivorian level for the new season.

Dark meat's run cools and leg quarters head for the $0.40s

Bulk leg quarters have come off a record just above $0.60 a pound to $0.52-0.54. LEAP expects the mid-to-upper $0.40s through fall and winter before a recovery.

Indonesia confirms B50; Vesper sees 1 mmt of extra demand

Full B50 would lift palm oil going into Indonesian biofuels by 2.4 million tonnes. Vesper's estimate for growth beyond B40 without the full step is 1 million.

Milkfat keeps building stock while milk protein tightens

Milkfat is still stock-building across all three regions while producers divert milk away from SMP, and US NFDM disappearance runs 30% above last year.

WPC80's standoff starts to break, and MPC 85 takes the lead

Buyers have stopped committing on WPC80 and offers are sliding, while MPC 85 is effectively sold out for the rest of the year across Europe, the US and NZ.

Beef packers flip to profit while feeders take the loss

The choice cutout has averaged below year-ago levels for 12 straight weeks, and packer margins swung from $250 a head in the red to $150 in the black.

The EU protein premium is now twice what a shipment needs

EU MPC 85 trades 29% above the US benchmark and WPC80 14% above it, against break-even premiums of roughly 5% and 6% once duty and freight are paid.

US egg producers squeezed between cheap eggs and costly corn

Shell eggs have fallen back into the $0.80s and September looks set to be the fourth sub-$1 month in six, just as feed costs turn against producers.

Black Sea deadlock lifts wheat, corn and barley

MATIF wheat and corn climbed again as Black Sea talks stalled and Egypt's wheat arrivals fell 75% year-on-year. Vesper's Q3 view stays sideways to up.

Cheese prices rise in Europe, fall everywhere else

European cheese offers are moving up on tighter milk, while US and New Zealand Cheddar keeps falling. The widening spread is a problem for EU exports.

India's duty-free sugar imports lose their appeal

India approved 1 MMT of duty-free raw sugar imports, but mills may take only half of it. EU output is set to fall almost 20% as drought hits beet yields.

US broiler output grows at its fastest pace since 2004

US ready-to-cook broiler production is up 4.2% this year, and the cutout has fallen to the mid-$0.70s from over $1.10. Feed costs are the next worry.

Cocoa futures jump 12% into the new crop year

London cocoa gained 12.3% in a week while Ivory Coast is expected to hold its farmgate price at 1,200 CFA francs. Here is what sits behind the move.

Coffee rallies again while Arabica stays in surplus

December coffee finished at $3.4165/lb after a 23.75 cent weekly gain. The market agrees Arabica is in surplus, so the rally is about something else.

Deferred palm oil contracts price in an El Nino loss

GAPKI says an extreme El Nino could cut Indonesian palm oil output by up to 3 million tonnes next season. The futures curve is already splitting on it.

US cattle placements fall 11% and feedyard losses deepen

July placements came in at 1.42 million head, well short of every estimate, while feedyards carry cash losses of $300 to $400 a head and rising corn costs.

UCO climbs 19% while Hormuz traffic sits near zero

UCO firmed 18.7% and the biodiesel complex followed, while Hormuz transits fell to zero and German HVO demand more than quadrupled year on year.

Where the new US-Canada dairy tariffs actually bite

New US and Canadian dairy tariffs cover powders, whey and MPC, but the exposure is uneven. Here is where the duties actually reach trade flows on both sides.

Butter surplus grows while dairy protein markets tighten

Butter is piling up across Europe, the US and New Zealand while SMP tightens on strong demand, pulling dairy markets in two very different directions.

Directionless cocoa market awaits fresh pod counts for the new season

Cocoa futures are swinging within a tight range as traders wait for new pod counts and EUDR compliance risk builds for Ivory Coast's new season.

Q4 whey negotiations stall in a pricing standoff

Whey protein markets are stuck in a Q4 standoff between buyers and sellers, while milk protein concentrate is sold out and climbing on reformulation demand.

Soybean oil drops on EPA biofuel doubts; rapeseed follows

CBOT soybean oil fell nearly 6% on rumors the EPA could ease biofuel blending rules, and rapeseed followed it lower as a US-Canada trade dispute added pressure.

Western Europe's cartonboard demand snaps a losing streak

EMGE's May data shows cartonboard demand growing in every region it tracks, including Western Europe, which had been running 5% behind last year all season.

Hunger stones: Europe's drought markers point to rising food costs

Drought has unearthed centuries-old hunger stones in European rivers as Eurozone inflation hits 2.9%, with crop stress and freight costs both adding pressure.

Protein blends challenge whey's grip on sports nutrition

Sports nutrition brands reformulate around cheaper protein blends as whey stays expensive, mixing in MPC 85, MPI 90 and caseinate at a fraction of the cost.

Black Sea export losses keep grains prices elevated into September

Wheat and corn are holding near recent highs as Ukrainian and Russian export losses tighten global supply, while soybeans rally on strong Chinese demand.

China's tissue mills keep running machines despite thin margins

EMGE's latest Tissue Market Highlights show China running new capacity even at thin margins, while demand eased across Western Europe and North America.

Europe's egg prices turn higher while the US market cools

European egg prices are rising into autumn restocking while US wholesale prices fall as supply rebuilds, with Polish disease losses tightening Europe's flock.

A summer milk shortfall squeezes Europe's cheese supply

Strong demand and a seasonal drop in milk intake are pushing cheddar, gouda, emmental and mozzarella prices higher across Europe, with mozzarella leading.

Brazil's uncommitted crop keeps a lid on coffee's nearby squeeze

Coffee futures rose to $3.179 a pound on tight nearby supply, but Sucafina expects prices to slide as Brazilian farmers still hold a large, unsold Arabica crop.

India moves toward its first major sugar imports since 2017

India is weighing a cut to its 100% sugar import tax as a weak monsoon threatens next season's cane crop, with global prices already firming.

US chicken breast demand hits its weakest point in years

Wholesale demand for boneless skinless chicken breast has slumped to its worst level in years even as broiler supply keeps growing, LEAP Market Analytics says.

Macadamia crop grows 11%, almond kernels come in small

Global Trading's August tree nut report has the macadamia crop up 11% and pressuring prices, while small first almond kernels push that market higher.

Smaller cashew and pistachio crops meet a macadamia rebound

ofi's July update puts the cashew crop 10% to 12% below last year and the 2026 pistachio crop near half of 2025, while hazelnut supply stays comfortable.

Tight milk sends processors toward cheese and whey

Seasonally tight milk is pushing European and US processors toward cheese and whey, lifting cream and SMP while butter stocks stay at decade highs.

US milk: a summer hiccup or a real shift?

Heat has thinned US milk supply and lifted NFDM, but a growing herd and a wide feed-to-milk margin suggest the tightness fades once Q4 arrives.

Whey protein's climb stalls before Q4 contracting

Reformulation has cut WPC80 demand going into Q4, stalling the climb, while MPC 85, lactose and whey permeate tighten across Europe and the US.

US butter, cheese and milk powder prices converge near $1.50

Butter, both cheese grades and NFDM are trading within cents of $1.50 a pound on the CME board, a rare level of convergence.

Egg markets diverge: Europe steadies while the US rally unwinds

Europe's egg market has stopped falling while the US posts its first broad weekly decline of its rally, and egg powder is now pricing off a different cycle.

Wheat prices ease despite an unresolved Black Sea problem

Wheat pulled back this fortnight even though the Black Sea disruption remains unresolved, while corn, barley and soybean each moved on their own drivers.

Cheese prices hold firm through a summer that's usually quiet

Europe's cheese market is holding firm and even edging higher through what's normally a slow season, with buyers already locking in Q4 volumes.

El Niño risk spreads across sugar-growing regions, lifting prices

Sugar futures rose 3.8% as El Niño intensifies, threatening crops in Brazil, India, Thailand and the EU just as the 2026/27 balance tightens.

Bolivia's blockades lift, but diesel shortages keep Brazil nut shipments stuck

Bolivia's road blockades have ended, but diesel shortages and port congestion at Arica are still delaying Brazil nut shipments this season.

Butter and milk powder markets test their stock cushion

Heavy production has left butter, SMP, and WMP stocks well supplied, and the second half of the year will show how much of that cushion gets drawn down.

US churns record butter, but stocks run thin into autumn

US butter output hit a 31-year high for January to May, yet June stocks fell to their lowest since 2022 as cheap prices drove record exports.

Whey and milk protein markets run out of room to sell

Sweet whey, MPC, and lactose have tightened sharply on export demand, while WPC80 trade stays quiet until the Q4 purchasing window opens in mid-August.

Europe's egg prices cool while the US market climbs again

European egg prices keep sliding on soft summer demand while US wholesale prices for large white eggs roughly tripled from early-July lows on tight supply.

Cocoa grindings rise nearly 10%, but prices swing both ways

Global cocoa grindings rose 9.95% year on year, confirming demand is holding, but London and New York futures still fell nearly 9% on the data.

European cheese firms on summer heat, mozzarella still out front

European cheese prices have firmed as summer heat cuts milk output. Mozzarella leads the move while cheddar still looks cheap heading into Q3.

Bullish signals stack up across the vegetable oil complex

Brent, palm, soy, rapeseed and sunflower oil are all firming as energy, tariffs and Black Sea disruption stack bullish drivers across the complex.

Why the commodity outlook now hinges on Hormuz and the AI cycle

The second-half commodity outlook hinges on whether the Middle East conflict resolves and the AI investment boom holds, keeping a higher price floor.

US cheddar closes the gap with New Zealand

US cheddar jumped 10% on the month to $1.60/lb while New Zealand fell to a 20-month low, closing a price gap that opened the year at a record 75 cents.

Gasoil firms on renewed Gulf conflict; biodiesel drifts lower

Fossil diesel snapped higher as conflict around the Strait of Hormuz reignited, lifting the gasoil reference while biodiesel and renewable diesel drifted lower.

Whey protein pauses for breath as lactose keeps firming

Whey protein has paused after an extended run higher as buyers tire at current levels, even as lactose keeps firming on stubbornly tight supply.

Heatwave lifts Euronext corn to a multi-year high

Heat damage puts French corn on course for a 26-year low, lifting Euronext corn to a multi-year high while wheat eases on strong harvest progress.

One heatwave, two egg markets: Europe eases while the US firms

Heat is thinning supplies of large eggs on both sides of the Atlantic, yet European egg prices are falling while US prices firm. Demand is the difference.

From pistachios to peanuts, nut supplies are tightening

ofi's June nut update points to tighter supply: the US pistachio crop could halve, peanut acres are down 21.8%, and almonds are 84.8% sold.

Soybean oil is pricing itself out of the US biofuel mix

Soybean oil's share of US biofuel feedstocks fell to 37% in April as producers switched to corn oil, tallow, and UCO. Vesper's weekly vegetable oils view.

US peanut acres drop 21.8%; supply tightens across origins

USDA puts US peanut plantings down 21.8%. With Argentina's harvest delayed and Brazil's area shrinking, Alimenta Agri sees prices heading higher.

North America paperboard tightens while Western Europe stays soft

Paperboard markets diverged through spring, with Western Europe staying weak, North America showing early recovery and Asian demand continuing to grow.

Cocoa futures rebound on macro mood, not fundamentals

Cocoa had been one of the quieter markets of late spring, shrugging off higher Ivory Coast arrivals and El Niño chatter alike. Then London opened sharply up.

New Sathi crop bends old basmati prices, but the floor holds

New Sathi paddy reaching mandis in western Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand reset India's basmati market in early June, forcing old rice to reprice lower.

European sugar: buyers and sellers dig in on new-crop prices

The 2026/27 European sugar market is a standoff: buyers hold around €530 depending on volume while sellers try to keep the line near €600 bulk ex works.

WPC80 prices at record levels as new protein demand grows faster than supply

The whey protein market is running an unusual experiment: higher prices are drawing in both more supply and more demand, with demand growing at least as fast.

Whey protein tightness drives reformulation toward MPC 85 in Q3

The global whey protein market opened its Q3 window at fresh highs, with WPC80 leading the complex up and prompting a clear reformulation trend industry-wide.

El Niño risk reshapes sugar's 2026/27 supply outlook

Raw sugar edged higher on Brazil's planned anhydrous ethanol blend increase from 30% to 32% and firmer crude, with Sugar No. 11 settling at 14.11 cents/lb.

Rapeseed market firms after Germany adopts RED III

MATIF rapeseed rose to EUR 552/mt from EUR 508/mt after Germany adopted RED III, with tight EU stocks, strong crush and firmer crude oil all lending support.

Butter weakens while milk powders climb on record US NFDM pricing

Butter and milk powders are moving in opposite directions, with heavy milk flows pressuring butterfat while US NFDM hit a CME record and pulled SMP higher.

Whey protein prices hold at all-time highs with demand destruction still elusive

WPC80 and WPI remain at record levels in Europe and the US, above the point where reformulation has begun but not yet enough to close the supply gap.

European cocoa grindings drop to decade low on weak chocolate demand

European cocoa grindings fell 7.8% year on year in Q1 2026 to 325,895 mt, the lowest quarterly total in more than a decade, on weak chocolate demand.

Southeast Asia biodiesel mandates reshape palm oil supply outlook

Three major Southeast Asian palm oil producers are raising biodiesel blending mandates, with Indonesia moving to B50 from July 2026 for public service fuel.

US egg prices fall below production cost while Europe stays tight

The post-Easter egg market is moving two ways: US supply has rebuilt strongly with no new HPAI cases in laying flocks, while Europe stays tight.

Cheese markets flip from Q1 shortage to Q2 surplus

Q1 was defined by limited commodity cheese availability as export demand pulled volumes out of Europe and the US. At the start of Q2, that dynamic has shifted.

Australian beef exports hit near-record volumes in March 2026

Australia's beef exports hit 149,973 tonnes in March 2026, up 33% year on year and the second-highest monthly total on record, on broad-based demand.

Australian sheep meat exports decline sharply in March as MENA shipments contract

Australian lamb and mutton exports fell to 42,656 tonnes in March 2026, down 24% year on year and 6% below the five-year average, as MENA flows contracted.

WPC80 shortage drives protein markets into uncharted territory

The whey protein market is splitting: WPC80 faces a structural shortage with no near-term relief, while sweet whey, permeate and lactose soften on exports.

Vegetable oil prices ease on ceasefire news, palm oil outlook mixed

A two-week US-Iran ceasefire announced on April 8 sent Brent crude sharply lower, putting immediate pressure across the whole vegetable oil complex.

Cocoa grindings extend decline with chocolate demand under sustained pressure

Cocoa grindings look set to stay well below historical levels through 2025/26, with European volumes down 8.3% in Q4 and pressure across the chocolate trade.

European cheese markets turn softer at the start of Q2

After a firm Q1 held tight by export demand, European cheese is softening as high production and a less favourable exchange rate press on sellers.

Sugar prices edge higher on crude oil rally, but fundamentals stay soft

Sugar moved modestly higher on a sharp rise in crude oil rather than any change in supply and demand, with gains trimmed once ceasefire talks emerged.

Global cartonboard demand ends 2025 flat as regional trends diverge sharply

Global cartonboard demand grew 1% in December 2025, leaving full-year growth at zero, though the flat headline masks sharp divergence between regions.

Wheat futures rally, but cash markets tell a different story

Wheat futures have pushed higher, but a growing disconnect with cash markets points to a correction, while barley exports run at multi-year highs.

SMP market forecast 2026: US production shortfall pulls international buyers toward Europe

The global skim milk powder market has turned firm rather than supply-heavy as 2026 began, and that tone looks set to persist for the foreseeable future.

Sports Nutrition ingredients forecast 2026: whey protein powders, eggs, sugar, nuts, cooa

The sports nutrition supply chain is under its heaviest pressure in years, as whey demand broadens into medical, weight management and food fortification.

Sweet whey powder forecast 2026: European prices overtake US levels as costs rise and Middle East demand accelerates

Sweet whey powder shows a clear Europe and US divide in early 2026, with European prices well above the subdued picture first expected as energy costs rise.

WPC80 market forecast 2026: Q2 volumes near sold out as demand outpaces supply across all major regions

WPC80 stands apart from the dairy complex, driven by demand rather than milk availability, and that firm tone is expected to persist throughout 2026.

WPI price forecast 2026: EU prices approach €25,000/mt as GLP-1 demand adds to supply strain

Whey protein isolate demand keeps outstripping capacity, with European facilities running flat out and no realistic path to increase output meaningfully.

Australian beef exports rise as tight US supply boosts demand

Australian beef exports rose 11% year on year in February to 130,884 tonnes, as tight US cattle supply and a 42% price discount lifted global demand.

Tight skimmed milk powder supply supports global prices

Skimmed milk powder stays firmly supported as limited US and Oceania supply meets steady import demand, with the EU Vesper Price Index at €2,600 per tonne.

WPC80 shortage keeps whey market firmly bullish

Global whey markets stay bullish as tight WPC80 supply and strong demand across nutrition and food sectors leave Q2 volumes nearly sold out.

Grain prices rise on Middle East conflict, with wheat, corn and soybeans all moving higher

Grain markets rose over two weeks with the Middle East conflict the main driver, as Brent crude gained $8.50 to $81.40 a barrel and lifted wheat and corn.

Paperboard markets diverge as Western Europe softens and North America holds firm

Western European cartonboard and containerboard markets continued to soften in November 2025, while North America held firm.

Middle East conflict pushes vegetable oil prices higher as freight costs climb

Brent crude's rise after Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz is lifting vegetable oils across the board, with freight costs climbing on key shipping routes.

Strait of Hormuz tensions and the short-term outlook for brent crude oil

How Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruptions impact food commodities through energy prices, fertilizer costs, freight, USD strength and market sent

WPC80 market tightens further as Q2 volumes near sold out across Europe and the US

WPC80 is tightening fast with Q2 volumes close to sold out across Europe and the US, and buyers now focused on securing volume rather than on price.

Soybean prices jump on China trade talks and U.S. crush demand

CBOT soybeans surged to 1,115 cents a bushel from 1,068 on US-China trade progress, new 45Z biofuel rules and strong December domestic crush demand.

U.S. milk powder prices surge 30% in one month on supply squeeze

CME nonfat dry milk prices surged 30% in one month as low November production triggered a short squeeze. Analysis suggests prices may be...

Europe faces Easter egg shortage as Poland loses 5 million laying hens

Poland has lost at least 5 million laying hens in six weeks, nearly 10% of national capacity, pointing to severe Easter egg shortages across Europe.

U.S. Treasury's 45Z guidance tilts biofuel policy toward North American crop oils

New 45Z guidance restricts eligible fuels to US, Canadian and Mexican feedstocks and removes ILUC penalties, lending support to CBOT soybean oil prices.

Cocoa futures decline 30% in one month as speculators exit and grind data disappoints

Cocoa futures fell 30% in a month as Q4 grind data showed an 8.25% European decline and Ivory Coast faced trader defaults on sharply lower prices.

Whey protein concentrate reaches €14,320 per tonne in Europe as structural shortage persists

EU WPC80 instant reached €14,320 per tonne and US prices €15,067 in late January, as manufacturers sold out volumes and demand outstripped available supply.

Cocoa prices hit 2-year low as farmgate pricing crisis leaves African beans stranded at ports

London cocoa fell over 12% to 3,347 GBP/t, a two-year low, as fixed farmgate prices in Ivory Coast and Ghana created a West African supply bottleneck.

European cheese prices hold steady as butter markets collapse, shifting dairy valorization dynamics

Cheese holds firm around €3,000/mt despite peak seasonal production, while collapsing butter prices shift dairy valorisation calculations toward protein.

Paperboard market shows diverging regional trends as operating ratios hit multi-year lows

Global paperboard markets diverged in October 2025, with cartonboard operating ratios at multi-year lows and Western European demand down 14% on the year.

WPC80 and WPI prices hit record highs on GLP-1 medication demand

WPC80 prices hit €13,000/mt and WPI reaches €21,500/mt as GLP-1 medication demand creates shortages in global whey protein markets.

European butter surplus climbs to 106,000 metric tons

European butter production surged 5.09% in 2025 to leave a 106,000 mt surplus, with cream cheap at €5,500/mt and buyers already covered for their needs.

Western Europe paperboard demand drops in sharp contrast to other regions

Western Europe's paperboard demand fell sharply in August 2025 while other regions held stable or grew, according to EMGE's latest regional figures.

US whey protein concentrate market reaches record prices as spot availability becomes critically low

US WPC80 has become virtually impossible to source as temporary factory downtime creates a shortage, pushing spot prices to a record $6.35 per pound.

Coffee prices climb on tight supply concerns despite favorable Brazilian weather

Coffee futures gained 13.9 cents to 413.55 US cents per pound as certified stocks decline and US-Colombia trade tension threatens supply, defying forecasts.

European WPC80 market empties for Q4 following large volume purchases

The European WPC80 market has turned significantly tight within weeks, with Western European producers quoting above €12,500/mt after large Q4 purchases.

Butter, SMP and WMP tip in buyers' favor amid Q4 oversupply

Global dairy markets favour buyers as heavy stocks meet weak demand, with butter, SMP and WMP prices falling and production cost margins narrowing into Q4.

Whey protein supply runs low as Q4 volumes sell out

Whey proteins are bucking broad dairy weakness as Q4 volumes grow scarce, with WPC80 holding above €12,000/mt and WPI tightening further still.

Cartonboard markets show regional divergence as capacity shifts reshape supply dynamics

Western Europe and Asia face contrasting cartonboard market dynamics as new capacity and mill closures reshape regional supply.

European cheese markets face downward pressure as supply outpaces demand

European cheese is under pressure with Gouda at €3,170/mt and Mozzarella at €3,120/mt, as buyers move hand-to-mouth and high milk prices squeeze margins.

Cheese markets under pressure as European and US spot prices decline

EU and US cheese markets face pressure as buyers delay purchases and spot prices decline across Cheddar, Gouda, Mozzarella varieties.

Rapeseed oil prices increase on Ukrainian export disruptions and strong rival oils

Rapeseed oil rose EUR 20/mt to EUR 1,081/mt as unclear Ukrainian export mechanisms and rival vegetable oil strength provide support.

Global dairy markets plunge as oversupply overwhelms demand across all categories

Global dairy markets plunge as unprecedented milk oversupply overwhelms demand. Analysis of butter crash, SMP weakness, and production cycle implications.

Global dairy markets tumble as demand weakness triggers widespread price declines

Dairy markets face sharp declines as demand weakness triggers widespread selling. Butter approaches critical $2/lb level while milk powder prices fall over 5% a

European cheese markets join widespread dairy price declines as buyers retreat

European cheese is driving a broad dairy decline as buyers step back, with Cheddar, Gouda, Mozzarella and Emmental all under pressure from strong production.

Trump tariffs begin in India, with rice, dairy, and tea amongst products impacted

US tariffs of 50% on most imports from India kick in today, affecting key commodities like basmati rice, spices, pulses, tea and dairy.

Dairy fat prices correct lower as milk production increases globally

Global dairy fat prices face downward pressure from record milk production while whey protein markets enter tight Q4 purchasing window.

Coffee futures rally 32 cents in one week amid Brazilian import tariffs

Coffee futures surge to 314.05 cents/lb as 50% US tariffs on Brazilian imports force roasters to restructure supply chains.

Corn oil prices rise $60-130/MT as Middle East tensions drive up energy and shipping Costs

Corn oil prices increase $60-130/MT from June levels, while global corn production reaches record 1.265 billion metric tons.

European cheese prices face summer pressure as trading activity slows

European cheese prices face summer pressure with cheddar at €4,430/mt, gouda at €4,050/mt, and mozzarella at €4,000/mt as trading activity slows.

Port congestion hits European hubs while new US trade deals impact supply chains

Rotterdam, Antwerp, and Hamburg experience container delays, while Trump's 15% EU tariff deal reshapes global commodity flows.

Why are U.S. butter prices declining while Europe and New Zealand’s remain high?

US butter prices have fallen sharply on oversupply while Europe and New Zealand hold at elevated levels, showing how far regional supply balances diverge.

U.S.–Japan trade deal secures key win for dairy exporters amid global market pressure

Learn how this deal provides critical relief for U.S. cheese, whey, and lactose producers facing global competition in Japan.

Arabica coffee futures climb 17 cents as tariff concerns and weather risks support prices

Arabica coffee futures climb to 301.35 cents/lb as Brazilian tariff deadline approaches and weather models show potential frost risks.

Biodiesel markets stabilize as "Big Beautiful Bill" reshapes North American feedstock trade

US biofuel law limits feedstocks to North America, challenging Chinese UCO and Brazilian tallow suppliers. LSGO rises $18/mt. Get Vesper's analysis.

European whey markets face demand drought as Chinese buyers return to US suppliers

European whey markets face challenges as Chinese buyers return to US suppliers. Analysis of sweet whey powder, protein concentrates, and trade dynamics.

Global whey markets navigate trade uncertainty as Chinese demand shifts between US and Europe

Latest whey powder market trends as Chinese demand shifts between US and Europe. Expert analysis on WPC80, SWP, and WPI.

US dairy markets retreat from recent highs as seasonal patterns emerge

Latest US dairy market update shows cheese prices pulling back from highs while trans-Atlantic protein spreads remain wide.

Whey markets struggle to find middle ground as trade tensions intensify

Whey ingredient prices hit extremes as trade tensions disrupt markets. WPC80 up 255% in 2 years while lactose, WPI show volatile swings.

Biodiesel market watch week 20: UCO prices under pressure on higher supply to EU

Week 20 biodiesel analysis: UCO prices weaken in China and Europe as softer demand meets rising EU supply, with imports up 16.8% on US import tariffs.

US dairy market weekly: Cheese prices surge amid trade deal developments

Discover how the new US-China trade agreement is driving a $0.12/lb cheese price rally and creating export opportunities for US dairy producers in our latest ma

Global dairy markets face perfect storm: US tariffs, FMD, and supply imbalances

New US tariffs, China's retaliation and foot-and-mouth cases in Europe are converging to reshape global dairy trade patterns and regional supply balances.

Biodiesel markets shaken by Trump's new tariff policies

President Trump's economic emergency declaration introduces tariffs up to 54% on biodiesel imports, threatening Chinese UCO supply chains while creating opportu

Whey protein markets: diverging paths between concentrates and sweet whey powder

Latest whey market analysis reveals supply constraints driving WPC80 and WPI prices, while sweet whey powder buyers remain hesitant ahead of Q2.

How the Dairy Market is Reacting to Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Germany: Impact on Butter, SMP, and WMP Exports and Prices

Explore how foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Germany is disrupting the dairy market. Get insights on the impact on butter, SMP, and WMP prices

Cheese Market Update: Prices Fall as Milk Supply Concerns Ease

Cheese prices drop as milk supply stabilizes in Europe and North America. Market outlook predicts price stabilization in early 2025

Weather Drives Volatility in CBOT Soybean Prices: Discover Vesper's AI-Driven Price Forecasts for the Next Six Months

Discover how weather and geopolitical events are impacting CBOT soybean prices, and learn what Vesper's price forecasts are predicting.

Soybean market update: fluctuating weather conditions and robust supply impact prices

Soybean Oil prices fall on CBOT and the Vesper Argentina Forward Price Index due to fluctuating U.S. weather conditions and strong LATAM supply.

High Global Demand Tightens Butter Market, with Cream Prices Hitting Yearly High

Discover the European butter market's challenges: supply shortages, record-high cream prices, and rising global demand tightening the market.

Dairy market insights: Price gaps for butter and powder are decreasing among the major producing regions

Explore the latest dairy market update revealing a significant reduction in butter price gaps across major regions (Europe, Oceania, US).

The whey market: the drivers behind the significant price jump

Discover what's fueling price surges in the European whey market. Gain insights into liquid whey, whey powders, and export dynamics.

EU biodiesel is down w-o-w, Vesper hears large purchases of Chinese biodiesel

Learn about the EU biodiesel dip and Chinese market movements with Vesper. Adapt your trading strategy with our timely insights.

Limited trading activity characterises the UCOME market amidst rising prices

Explore the UCOME market's nuanced landscape with rising prices and limited trading activity. Uncover the impact of low liquidity and increased UCO prices on UC

Vegetable oils navigate mixed trends amid weather-driven volatility

Explore the dynamic shifts in the vegetable oil market as palm, soybean, and sunflower oils react to diverse influences. Discover the rising trends in rapeseed,

Falling veg oils pressure biodiesel outrights

Discover how falling vegetable oil prices are affecting biodiesel outrights. Vesper gives you the insights to adjust your trading approach.

Vegetable oils turn bullish on lower-than-expected US Soybean acreage and stocks

Discover the intriguing turn of events in the vegetable oil market as USDA's report reveals lower-than-expected US soybean acreage and stocks. Explore the impac

Certified sustainable palm oil (CSPO) production increases by almost 6% from last year

Certified sustainable palm oil production rose almost 6% last year, according to the RSPO's latest Annual Communication of Progress report on the sector.

US ethanol production advances 4.84% in the week to 932,000 barrels per day

US ethanol production rose 4.84% in the week ended October 7 to 932,000 barrels per day, while inventories advanced 0.92% to 21.9 million barrels.

Where will fuel prices go in 2023 with Lula or Bolsonaro?

Whether under Lula or Bolsonaro, Brazil's next president will face high international fuel prices in 2023 and will need to respond quickly, analysts say.

Vegetable Oil Highlights

Palm oil took several big hits last week, falling back to levels not seen since before the war in Ukraine began and dragging the oilseed complex with it.