Almond prices remain at historically elevated levels, and US export shipments rose 31% in August to 143.25 million lbs, according to ofi’s latest nut market update on the Vesper platform. India led the growth with shipments up 170%, or 1,405 containers against 520 in August 2025, with Diwali coverage and a firming market behind the strong Indian demand. Western Europe (+8%), Japan (+52%) and Vietnam (+10%) also took more.
The rest of the almond report is less upbeat. Domestic shipments fell 3.3% to 46.84 million lbs, the second lowest month in ten years. August sales came in at 138.8 million lbs, down 24.6% on a year earlier, and uncommitted 2026 crop inventory stands at 176.94 million lbs, up 232.6%. ofi says that with a significant volume of Indian demand already covered, buyers may pause to assess what they still need, which could put some short-term downward pressure on inshell prices. How long any weakness lasts will depend on how supply estimates develop, with the industry currently placing the 2026 crop at 2.55 to 2.65 billion lbs, below the 2.69 billion lbs of 2025.
Pistachios and cashews tighten
Prices in the pistachio market are at some of the highest levels on record after a short crop, ofi notes. Shipments closed the 2025 crop year at 1.14 billion lbs, only the second time the industry has passed 1 billion lbs, and the 2026 crop is estimated at 600 to 700 million lbs. At these levels, ofi says, questions remain about how long demand holds up.
The near-term cashew price outlook is firm, with ofi expecting both raw nut and kernel prices to hold up. The Northern Hemisphere crop has finished 10% to 12% below last year, with average outturns 2.0 to 2.5 lbs lower and weak quality from West Africa. Vietnamese processors remain under-covered for Q4, and large kernels are getting harder to find.
The hazelnut market is holding steady. Turkey’s grain board, the TMO, is buying at 255 TL/kg for Giresun quality while the open market trades at a significant discount, and ofi expects the market to stay broadly stable as the board absorbs a large share of an 804,000 mt crop. The full update also covers US peanuts and macadamias, where China has cut its import duty on South African nuts in shell and kernels from 12% to 0%.
