The nut complex is pulling in two directions this season. ofi’s July market and crop update points to genuinely short crops in cashews and pistachios, a comfortable supply picture in hazelnuts, and a macadamia harvest large enough to change the tone by the end of the year.
Cashews are the tightest of the group
ofi puts the 2026 global crop 10% to 12% below last year, with average outturns tracking 2.0 to 2.5 lbs lower. Harvesting has finished in West Africa, Cambodia and Vietnam, and the first arrivals from Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire into Vietnam and India have confirmed the concerns, with higher defect rates and poorer outturns than last season. Vietnamese processors have limited raw cashew coverage for the second half and are sourcing more from West Africa. Demand is moving the other way: consumption is improving in Europe and the Middle East, Asian demand remains robust, and US import volumes are running ahead of 2025. ofi lists no bearish signals in the market at all.
Pistachios ship strongly into a smaller crop
Pistachios are shipping strongly into what looks like a much smaller crop. June shipments reached 90.03 million lbs, up 20.2% year on year, taking the year-to-date total to 998.18 million lbs, up 19.9%. Exports carried it, at 66.90 million lbs for the month, up 25%. The shift away from China is striking: shipments there are down 82% against 2024, offset by growth of 17% to Europe, 22% to the Middle East and North Africa and 279% to Vietnam and Hong Kong versus Crop Year 2023. Industry estimates for the 2026 crop range from roughly 700 to 900 million lbs, with sentiment centered on something near half of 2025 production.
Almonds sit between the two. June shipments came in at 212.98 million lbs, up 14.1%, with exports up 20.8% while domestic shipments fell 3.2% and remain down 12.7% year to date. Uncommitted 2025 crop inventory has dropped 17.8% to 328.21 million lbs. ofi notes buyers are hesitant at pricing that is higher than at any point in the past eight years.
Hazelnuts look comfortable by comparison, with Turkish crop estimates running from 704,000 tonnes at the ministry’s conservative end to 829,000 tonnes on the exporters’ flower count, and a healthy carryover behind it. The near-term trigger is the TMO support price. Peanuts carry a different risk, with US acreage down 21.8% and a third of the crop still in drought.
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