Diesel shortages keep Brazil nut shipments stuck even as blockades lift
Bolivia’s road blockades have lifted, but the Brazil nut supply chain is still far from normal. Severe diesel shortages continue to slow transport out of producing regions, while congestion at the Port of Arica is delaying vessel loading. Some exporters have returned to offer their final balances for the season; others are still waiting to confirm processing yields before releasing what’s left. Raw material collected deep in the forest has, in some cases, not yet reached processing factories.
The spot market is tight as a result: cargo arriving in Europe, and containers still afloat, are going almost straight to existing commitments, leaving buyers unsure what supply looks like from here. The crop itself looks normal to good in size. The disruption is logistics, not a shortage of nuts.
Cashews sit in a quiet summer holding pattern
Cashews are moving through a quiet patch of their own, typical for the summer as buyers head off on holiday. Raw cashew nut supply out of West Africa is winding down, with most remaining shipments afloat or arriving in Vietnam, and processors are buying only what they need to cover commitments. Stocks are building, but they sit with financially strong traders who can afford to hold rather than sell, so farm prices have stayed roughly where they were.
The recommendation coming out of the report: buyers should be covered for Q3 and part of Q4 2026, and start looking seriously at Q1 2027, since that period will also draw on current inventory ahead of the next Southern Hemisphere crop.
Macadamia buyers stay cautious, almonds firm on weather
Macadamia demand remains cautious and largely hand to mouth, with buyers reluctant to commit to larger positions while prices stay under pressure. An emerging El Nino pattern is drawing some early attention, with drier conditions reported in southern Malawi raising questions about flowering for the 2027 crop, though it’s too early to size any impact. China’s harvest, expected to start in August, is estimated around 100,000 tonnes, a modest increase on last year. Demand for nut-in-shell stays healthier outside China, particularly for higher-grade kernel material that Chinese supply doesn’t readily offer.
Almonds are the one market showing some upward price pressure. Rain damage to Australia’s crop pulled Indian and Chinese buyers into California for inshell supply, and kernel demand from most origins has been firm enough to nudge prices higher. California’s new crop, due to start harvest shortly, is still expected at 2.65 to 2.70 billion pounds, a size the market has shown this season it can absorb without much disruption.
Outlook
Four origins, four different pressures: a logistics squeeze in Brazil, a wait-and-see summer in cashews, cautious hand-to-mouth buying in macadamias, and a firmer tone in almonds on weather-driven demand. None of it points to a single market direction, which is exactly why the coverage windows for each are worth checking separately before Q4 buying decisions lock in.
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