Two harvests are moving in opposite directions. Global Trading’s August tree nut report has a macadamia crop big enough to press on prices, and an almond harvest whose first kernels are smaller than the trade expected.
A bigger macadamia crop that demand is not absorbing
The 2026 macadamia crop is estimated 11% to 12% above 2025, roughly 45,000 to 50,000 tonnes more nut-in-shell. Prices are under pressure, and the problem is that lower shelf prices are not pulling demand through. Part of that is a leftover from last year: US retail prices in some cases still carry the import tariffs that had to be paid then. Those tariffs are now gone, which should feed through to the shelf eventually. Global Trading also flags that the US import tariff on pasteurized product runs at 10% to 15%, enough that buyers are likely to switch back to non-pasteurized and pasteurize in their own process before packing, since roasting already provides a kill step. Buyers are covering only two to three months ahead.
Almonds are firming instead. The harvest is in full swing and the first kernels coming in are smaller than expected, particularly for the Nonpareil variety. Combined with July export numbers up 3.3% on 2025, that is putting upward pressure on prices. Carryover is limited and concentrated in the less interesting varieties and qualities, which leaves little cushion.
Quiet cashews, and a market that keeps moving east
Cashews are quiet, but Global Trading does not read that as weakness. Demand is thin at the moment and prices have come off a couple of cents as processors try to generate interest. Raw cashew supply from West Africa is already on the water to Vietnam or sitting at African factories, and the arithmetic suggests availability is just about enough to bridge to the new Southern Hemisphere crop. Global Trading’s recommendation is to stay covered until Q1 2027 and it does not expect lower prices in the coming months.
The longer arc of the cashew market is worth noting alongside the immediate numbers. Processing moved from Mozambique in the 1970s to India in the 1980s to Vietnam in the 1990s, and over the past five to ten years African processing capacity has grown to handle roughly half of African production. Demand has shifted too. India, the US and Europe were the drivers, but Chinese consumption has grown quickly over the past five years, has passed both the US and Europe, and is likely to become the largest shortly. Processors are following that demand, where certification requirements are lighter and prices tend to be better.
The full report has the crop tables by origin.
For real-time nuts prices and nuts price forecasts, visit: https://app.vespertool.com/.
