Kernel prices for cashews are moving in a steady range, but several developments at origin are putting a firm bottom under the market and limiting physical supply for the months ahead.
Local harvests in West Africa and Asia have finished. Raw cashew nut prices remain high, which leaves processors on thin margins with very little room to bring kernel prices down. Lower outturns and quality problems also mean fewer large sizes were produced, so physical availability of WW180 and WW240 is tight and their premiums are running wider than usual.
The forward concern is weather. Recent reports from the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council and the WMO confirm an exceptionally strong El Niño event expected to persist through early 2027, bringing drought and extreme weather risk to key producing regions during the critical November to January flowering window. With that uncertainty ahead, packers are cautious and reluctant to commit to long-term forward contracts until the effect on the new crop is clearer.
Shipping adds a second constraint. Processing in Vietnam slows naturally toward the end of the year, and the Lunar New Year shutdown closes factories and halts shipments from mid-January through late February, so options for early 2027 arrivals will be limited. Global Trading’s recommendation is to cover positions through Q1 2027, when the new Northern Hemisphere crop arrives and sets the direction.
Macadamias are under pressure from a new direction
The macadamia market remains soft, with a new factor entering: the nuts-in-shell harvest from China. Volumes look substantial as new trees come into production, though there are concerns about both quality and timing, with weather pushing the harvest later than usual. Guangxi in southern China is most affected, and Yunnan to a lesser extent, although Yunnan remains the more weather-sensitive region even after improvements in harvesting methods.
Demand is showing early positive signs. US kernel stocks are gradually running down, which is bringing buyers back to look at new purchases, and interest is picking up slightly in other markets as lower prices draw in new buyers. Availability from this year’s crops is still more than sufficient, so prices stay under structural pressure, and Global Trading expects that to persist for the coming months. A turn in sentiment depends on fresh demand rather than supply. Its advice for buyers is to watch closely, cover nearby positions, and make sure they are buying 2026 crop product.
Reported by Global Trading, citing INC and WMO.
