China news — Vesper

Chinese New Year comes 11 days early, and the cut-off is close

Chinese New Year falls on 6 February 2027, so Asia to Europe cargo has to leave China by mid to late December. November rates look flat.

Cumin holds its rally as India's crop comes in a sixth smaller

Trade estimates put India's cumin crop 16% to 18% below last year, and prices held their October gains. Turmeric stocks are close to exhausted.

SMP hits a GDT high not seen since 2022 while butter slides

SMP rose 3.1% at the Global Dairy Trade auction to its highest since June 2022, while butter fell another 4.7% with stocks high in every exporting region.

Middle East oil is flowing again at five times the freight cost

Middle East oil exports are back at pre-war volumes, but a barrel shipped from the Gulf to Asia now costs more than five times what it did before the conflict.

Rapeseed oil takes the lead while sunflower oil's rally stalls

Rapeseed oil rose about 5% on the week as China bought close to 1 million tonnes of Australian canola, while sunflower oil's rally paused on Black Sea talks.

Asian cartonboard output surges while Western Europe slips again

Cartonboard demand grew globally in July, but the regional picture split three ways, and falling Asian prices suggest the new volume has not found buyers yet.

China's tissue growth is distorting the global demand picture

Western Europe and North America both fell for a third straight month in July while China grew again, and EMGE suspects that volume is filling inventories.

Carriers go back through Suez and arrival dates stop lining up

Most big carriers are routing through the Suez Canal again, but not all at once, so some ships arrive early, others late, and terminal congestion follows.

German HVO100 demand is on course to double this year

HVO100 has traded below B7 diesel across Germany since mid-August for the first time, and 2026 consumption is now put at more than double last year's.

Indian cumin is now cheaper than Iran, Syria and Turkey

Cumin from the origins that historically undercut India now costs buyers more than Indian cumin, and that reversal is pulling demand into Gujarat.

India's Diwali buying lifts almond exports while sales slow

US almond exports rose 31% in August, led by India at 170%. August sales fell 25% and uncommitted 2026 crop inventory more than tripled on last year.

China buys less dairy but more cheese and butter

China's dairy imports fell 3.7% in milk equivalent this year while its cheese and butter buying rose about 18%. See where US suppliers gained ground in Asia.

Rotterdam's ECT terminals now take trucks by time slot only

Trucks now need a booked slot at ECT Delta and Euromax in Rotterdam, while Asia to Europe spot rates fell for a second week during China's Golden Week.

A storm halves Guntur chili arrivals, and prices hold

A deep depression halved red chili arrivals at Guntur in late September, but weak export volumes kept prices in range. Small and big cardamom split.

Black Sea deal hopes pull wheat lower, though a deal looks unlikely

Euronext milling wheat fell to €236/mt as talks on safe Black Sea grain shipping gathered pace, but the parties remain far apart and attacks on ports continue.

Palm oil falls to a three-month low on a looser Malaysian balance

BMD palm oil fell 4.7% on a looser Malaysian balance while soy, rapeseed and sunflower oil also slipped. See where Vesper expects prices to turn.

Peanut supply thins abroad while US stocks stay heavy

Argentina, Brazil and India point to smaller peanut crops while the US leans on record carryover, and Alimenta expects international prices to rise.

Whole milk powder trades below skimmed in New Zealand

New Zealand WMP has slipped below SMP and US NFDM sits above butter, as weak milkfat and firm protein compress the usual spreads across all three dairy regions.

Gasoil's 26% climb lifts biodiesel as Hormuz talks stall

Low sulfur gasoil rose 26% to $1,568 a tonne after Strait of Hormuz talks were postponed, pulling FAME and HVO up while used cooking oil eased.

Two routes into Rotterdam narrow at the same time

A cracked bridge has halved truck capacity to the Maasvlakte for up to eight weeks, while the Rhine at Kaub fell to 16 centimeters on 21 September.

Western Europe's cartonboard demand gives back May's gain

Apparent cartonboard demand in Western Europe fell 8% in June after an above-trend May, while North America grew 3% and Asian demand rose 14% again.

Europe enters winter with gas storage 16 points below normal

European gas storage sits at 68% against an 84% seasonal average, TTF is at three-year highs and the ECB has hiked again. What that means into winter.

Festival buying lifts cumin while coriander futures slide

Cumin ground higher through early September on festival buying while coriander futures dropped close to 5% with spot flat. Turmeric ended the fortnight nowhere.

Malaysian palm stocks climb 7.5% while Q4 supply looks thinner

August MPOB data put Malaysian palm stocks up 7.5% at 2.82 mmt and BMD prices eased, but the Q4 view is tighter. Rapeseed sowing is the nearer European risk.

Cashew packers stop committing forward ahead of the flowering window

Cashew packers are holding back from long-term forward contracts with INC and WMO confirming a strong El Niño over the November to January flowering window.

Peanut acres fall 27% into a record carryout

USDA cut 2026 US peanut acres by 27% while carryout sits near a record 1.6 million tons, and 2027 kernels already price above this year's crop.

Milkfat keeps building stock while milk protein tightens

Milkfat is still stock-building across all three regions while producers divert milk away from SMP, and US NFDM disappearance runs 30% above last year.

India's duty-free sugar imports lose their appeal

India approved 1 MMT of duty-free raw sugar imports, but mills may take only half of it. EU output is set to fall almost 20% as drought hits beet yields.

Thai cane area at risk from higher tapioca prices

Thailand's 2026/27 cane area looks set to shrink as tapioca pays better, and the mills are turning to white sugar exports for the rest of the year.

Turmeric's third rally in a row ends the same way

Turmeric rallied and gave it back for the third fortnight running, even with carryover stock down to 5 lakh bags against 140 lakh bags of annual demand.

UCO climbs 19% while Hormuz traffic sits near zero

UCO firmed 18.7% and the biodiesel complex followed, while Hormuz transits fell to zero and German HVO demand more than quadrupled year on year.

Western Europe's cartonboard demand snaps a losing streak

EMGE's May data shows cartonboard demand growing in every region it tracks, including Western Europe, which had been running 5% behind last year all season.

Hunger stones: Europe's drought markers point to rising food costs

Drought has unearthed centuries-old hunger stones in European rivers as Eurozone inflation hits 2.9%, with crop stress and freight costs both adding pressure.

China's tissue mills keep running machines despite thin margins

EMGE's latest Tissue Market Highlights show China running new capacity even at thin margins, while demand eased across Western Europe and North America.

Macadamia crop grows 11%, almond kernels come in small

Global Trading's August tree nut report has the macadamia crop up 11% and pressuring prices, while small first almond kernels push that market higher.

Smaller cashew and pistachio crops meet a macadamia rebound

ofi's July update puts the cashew crop 10% to 12% below last year and the 2026 pistachio crop near half of 2025, while hazelnut supply stays comfortable.

Typhoon Dolphin's backlog outlasts the storm

Typhoon Dolphin has cleared the Zhejiang coast, but Ningbo and Shanghai backlogs, a record-low Rhine and new EU packaging rules keep shippers under pressure.

Whey protein's climb stalls before Q4 contracting

Reformulation has cut WPC80 demand going into Q4, stalling the climb, while MPC 85, lactose and whey permeate tighten across Europe and the US.

China's ports reopen. The shipping backlog does not.

Typhoon Dolphin has passed, but the container backlog at Ningbo-Zhoushan and Shanghai lands on an already tight August for shippers.

EU sets an audit timeline for Brazil's poultry ban, opens a duck dispute with China

The EU has attached a firm audit calendar to Brazil's poultry suspension and opened a new anti-dumping case against Chinese duck imports.

Bolivia's blockades lift, but diesel shortages keep Brazil nut shipments stuck

Bolivia's road blockades have ended, but diesel shortages and port congestion at Arica are still delaying Brazil nut shipments this season.

Butter and milk powder markets test their stock cushion

Heavy production has left butter, SMP, and WMP stocks well supplied, and the second half of the year will show how much of that cushion gets drawn down.

Why sugar prices held steady through a volatile week

Raw sugar futures stayed under 14.70 cents a pound even as oil markets swung wildly, with EU beet yield cuts and Brazilian crushing delays in focus.

Black Sea disruption and EU heat lift wheat and corn to multi-year highs

Euronext milling wheat and corn jumped to multi-year highs as Black Sea shipping attacks and a European heatwave hit crops heading into harvest.

Spain's Newcastle disease outbreaks nearly triple; Brazil braces for an EU ban

Newcastle disease outbreaks nearly tripled in Spain in two weeks while Brazil faces an EU poultry export ban from September, tightening the supply outlook.

Why the commodity outlook now hinges on Hormuz and the AI cycle

The second-half commodity outlook hinges on whether the Middle East conflict resolves and the AI investment boom holds, keeping a higher price floor.

Macadamia forecasts edge lower while cashew season winds down

Macadamia crop forecasts slip in Australia and South Africa while the cashew season winds down, keeping tree nut buyers covered short into late 2026.

Reefer space, monsoon ports and a low Rhine: this week's freight pressure points

Shypple flags three freight pressure points for food shippers: sold-out reefer space, monsoon and typhoon port delays, and a Rhine too low for full barges.

Gasoil firms on renewed Gulf conflict; biodiesel drifts lower

Fossil diesel snapped higher as conflict around the Strait of Hormuz reignited, lifting the gasoil reference while biodiesel and renewable diesel drifted lower.

Coriander leads a spice rally on thin arrivals and Hormuz optimism

Coriander rose about 9% on thin Baran arrivals, leading a broad Indian spice rally as US-Iran talks lifted hopes the Strait of Hormuz would reopen to trade.

Freight update: ocean rates near the top, new emission costs from July 1

Asia to North Europe ocean freight rates look to be peaking after six weeks of gains, as capacity stays tight and new EU emission surcharges take effect July 1.

California almonds firm up as May shipments beat expectations

The California almond market is holding firm into the close of the crop year, after a May position report that beat trade expectations on shipments and sales.

North America paperboard tightens while Western Europe stays soft

Paperboard markets diverged through spring, with Western Europe staying weak, North America showing early recovery and Asian demand continuing to grow.

New Sathi crop bends old basmati prices, but the floor holds

New Sathi paddy reaching mandis in western Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand reset India's basmati market in early June, forcing old rice to reprice lower.

Ocean rates climb into July, with new tolls and surcharges close behind

Asia to North Europe freight rates have risen for six straight weeks, and procurement teams importing through the region should plan for more of the same.

Thin arrivals support Indian spices, but demand won't chase

India's spice complex spent the first half of June in a standoff: arrivals kept thinning across the major mandis, yet buyers refused to chase prices higher.

Thai rice up 25%, wheat swings 40 EUR in a month: grains reprice across the board

Thai rice rose 16 to 25% in May, parboiled A1 leading from 220.73 to 275.61 USD/mt, while EU milling wheat fell to 180 EUR/mt then jumped 36 EUR the next day.

Cumin finds its floor while coriander supply tightens

India's spice markets waited on buyers through late May, and cumin produced a rare clear signal: Unjha traders named a floor of $2.09 to $2.11/kg.

Thai cane pivots to tapioca as China's sugar surplus builds

East Asia's sugar markets face weather and policy pulling opposite ways, with Thailand's three-month outlook pointing to above-average heat across cane areas.

Record May temperatures lift European grain futures as US crop weather eases CBOT

European and US grains diverged, with Euronext milling wheat up to EUR 214/mt while CBOT SRW wheat fell to 648 cents/bu from 678 on easing crop weather.

Germany's RED III adoption and higher energy prices lift European biodiesel sharply

European biodiesel rose sharply in May, with FAME 0 up from $1,382 to $1,500 per tonne and UCOME reaching $1,652, after the Bundestag adopted RED III.

Grains slip on US-China summit disappointment despite tight wheat supply underneath

The US-China summit brought no soybean purchase commitments and no tariff cuts, and CBOT soybeans fell from 1,207 to 1,174 cents per bushel in response.

Ocean freight rates jump on early peak season while Hormuz stays shut for most

Container spot rates from Shanghai rose 11% to Northern Europe and 20% to the Mediterranean, as carriers pushed peak season surcharges ahead of the window.

Vegetable oils track Brent higher as El Nino and Hormuz tensions set the agenda

Brent rose from $104 to $112 a barrel and vegetable oils moved with it, on fresh US threats to Iran and a new Iranian body to oversee the Strait of Hormuz.

WPC80 prices at record levels as new protein demand grows faster than supply

The whey protein market is running an unusual experiment: higher prices are drawing in both more supply and more demand, with demand growing at least as fast.

Food and beverage costs face a second wave of commodity pressure

Oil has held above $100 a barrel through May, but the bigger story is funds rotating out of crude positions and into agricultural commodities instead.

NFDM domestic demand jumped 178% in Q1 as US dairy markets diverge

The CME spot call closed mixed as the complex absorbed a stronger dollar and the US-China summit, with blocks down 6 cents and barrels down 3, both to $1.57.

Cotton rally and drought threaten US peanut crop, acreage cuts could top 20%

The US peanut market has reversed from oversupply concern to whether growers can plant at all, as cotton climbs at least 18% and pulls acreage away.

Brent strength and biofuel mandates push vegetable oil complex higher

Vegetable oil prices rose across most of the complex as July Brent closed at $114/barrel against $101.7 a week earlier and biofuel mandates kept momentum.

Indian spice markets caught between tight supply and stalled export demand

Indian spice markets show one pattern across the complex: supply is tight, sometimes severely, but weak demand keeps capping or reversing every rally.

Butter weakens while milk powders climb on record US NFDM pricing

Butter and milk powders are moving in opposite directions, with heavy milk flows pressuring butterfat while US NFDM hit a CME record and pulled SMP higher.

Gulf shipping disruption reshapes Indian spice export flows

Conflict in West Asia and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz are reshaping Indian spice exports, with sellers avoiding freight-inclusive terms entirely.

China set to overtake Brazil as world's top chicken meat producer

USDA forecasts point to a 5% rise in Chinese poultry output in 2026, enough to push China past Brazil as the world's largest chicken meat producer.

Wheat and corn prices fall on lower crude and higher supply estimates

Euronext milling wheat dropped to EUR 194/mt from EUR 205/mt and French wheat flour to EUR 309/mt, after a broadly bearish April WASDE report.

Australian beef exports hit near-record volumes in March 2026

Australia's beef exports hit 149,973 tonnes in March 2026, up 33% year on year and the second-highest monthly total on record, on broad-based demand.

Australian sheep meat exports decline sharply in March as MENA shipments contract

Australian lamb and mutton exports fell to 42,656 tonnes in March 2026, down 24% year on year and 6% below the five-year average, as MENA flows contracted.

Grains hold firm on crude oil support, but markets watch for de-escalation signals

Wheat, corn, barley and soybeans stayed elevated on Brent crude support, though US signals that the Middle East conflict could end soon are being priced in.

Global cartonboard demand ends 2025 flat as regional trends diverge sharply

Global cartonboard demand grew 1% in December 2025, leaving full-year growth at zero, though the flat headline masks sharp divergence between regions.

Wheat futures rally, but cash markets tell a different story

Wheat futures have pushed higher, but a growing disconnect with cash markets points to a correction, while barley exports run at multi-year highs.

Record Brazilian exports push global poultry prices lower

Global poultry heads into late March broadly bearish, with Brazilian and Thai origins falling across whole birds, breast meat and wings on record exports.

European beef market forecast 2026: structural herd contraction keeps upward price pressure in place

Cattle and beef prices are expected to keep rising into 2026, driven by continued regulatory pressure on producers and a self-reinforcing herd contraction.

European butter forecast: rangebound in H1 2026, with recovery expected as milk tightens in H2

European butter enters 2026 with ample supply after strong 2025 production, keeping stocks elevated and capping prices until milk tightens later in the year.

European pork market forecast 2026: African Swine Fever in Spain redirects volumes to EU markets, pressuring prices

The EU sow herd is forecast to shrink again in 2026 on environmental restructuring, with feed prices favourable but labour and energy keeping costs elevated.

Lactose market forecast 2026: stability returns after 2025 price spike

Lactose rose sharply through 2025 as US tightness pulled European prices higher. That dynamic has shifted, and the global market is settling into stability.

Pizza, pasta, savory snack forecast: flour, tomate, chicken, beef, pork, mozzarella, olive oil

H2 2026 brings pizza, pasta and snack manufacturers near-term stability alongside building supply risk, with some procurement windows unlikely to last.

Tapioca starch market forecast 2026: lower cassava yields and Laos competition pressure prices

Cassava production for 2025/26 is estimated at around 22.1 million tonnes, down from roughly 28 million in 2024/25, on lower yields per hectare across origins.

Whey permeate forecast 2026: stable conditions expected as WPC80 and WPI production stays elevated

Whey permeate is one of the steadier dairy products heading into 2026, largely insulated from volatility as high WPC80 and WPI output keeps supply flowing.

Supply tightens and shipments slow across tree nut markets

Cashew prices are moving, Brazil nut supply is tightening and pecan shipments are down 35% year on year. What is driving each tree nut market this month.

Australian beef exports rise as tight US supply boosts demand

Australian beef exports rose 11% year on year in February to 130,884 tonnes, as tight US cattle supply and a 42% price discount lifted global demand.

Brent at $80, $120, or $150: Scenario Analysis of the Impact on Global Commodity Markets

Vesper models three Brent oil scenarios, at $80, $120 and $150, and traces what each would mean for global commodity markets and procurement planning.

Weather anomalies raise risks across key sugar regions

Unusual February weather raised production risks across Europe, Brazil, India and China, with northern France recording rainfall far above the seasonal norm.

Grain prices rise on Middle East conflict, with wheat, corn and soybeans all moving higher

Grain markets rose over two weeks with the Middle East conflict the main driver, as Brent crude gained $8.50 to $81.40 a barrel and lifted wheat and corn.

Paperboard markets diverge as Western Europe softens and North America holds firm

Western European cartonboard and containerboard markets continued to soften in November 2025, while North America held firm.

Sugar prices near multi-year lows as global surplus holds, crude volatility adds uncertainty

Sugar hit multi-year lows in mid-February before recovering, with Sugar No. 11 at 13.93 cents/lb on 3 March as crude volatility offset a global surplus.

How Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption could impact food commodity market

Middle East tensions and restricted movement through the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Brent crude higher. How that could reach food commodity markets.

Tree nut markets in early 2026: cashews, macadamias, almonds, and pecans

Tree nut markets are picking up into Q2, with buyers and sellers across cashews, macadamias, almonds and pecans working out strategy. Where each one stands.

Dairy markets firm on scarce offers and strong export demand

A shortage of offers is lifting butter and SMP prices across Europe, the US and Oceania, as sellers export aggressively or hold back rather than quote.

US-Iran tensions push Brent crude higher, lifting vegetable oil prices

Concern over a potential US-Iran conflict pushed Brent to $71.5 a barrel from $68.65, lifting vegetable oil prices broadly across the complex in week 9.

South American supply boom reshapes corn oil trade flows

A record Argentine harvest and strong Brazilian estimates keep corn oil under pressure, with Conab revising Brazil's crop up to 138.87 million metric tons.

WPC80 shortage intensifies with producers in control of pricing and allocation

Global whey protein concentrate 80 market reaches critical tightness with structural shortage affecting all whey products. Producers control pricing as domestic

India's soybean oil duty cut set to reshape vegetable oil import dynamics

India's planned reduction in soybean oil import duties under US trade agreement expected to reshape procurement patterns and intensify competition across palm,

Soybean prices jump on China trade talks and U.S. crush demand

CBOT soybeans surged to 1,115 cents a bushel from 1,068 on US-China trade progress, new 45Z biofuel rules and strong December domestic crush demand.

Polish chicken prices fall as Avian Influenza outbreak triggers 2.79 million bird cull

Poland reported 22 new avian influenza outbreaks and culled 2.79 million birds, sending Polish chicken breast prices down 3.7% while French prices rose.

U.S. broiler production forecast at 1.5% growth for 2026

US broiler production is projected at 48.7 billion pounds in 2026, up 1.5%, a downward revision from 2.1% after LEAP analysts adjusted their weight assumptions.

Palm oil prices rise on strong January exports as Indian buyers shift from soybean oil

BMD crude palm oil rose to $1,051/mt from $1,003/mt on Malaysian January exports up 8-10%, as Indian buyers cancelled soybean oil shipments in favour of palm.

Paperboard market shows diverging regional trends as operating ratios hit multi-year lows

Global paperboard markets diverged in October 2025, with cartonboard operating ratios at multi-year lows and Western European demand down 14% on the year.

Indian importers secure 150,000 metric tons monthly of South American soy oil

Indian buyers have committed to more than 150,000 tonnes of South American soybean oil a month from April to July 2025, fearing tighter palm and sunflower.

Trump's tariff plans create tight timeline for US importers

Trump has announced 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada plus 10% on China from January 20th, leaving US importers a tight six-week window to prepare.

WPC80 and WPI prices hit record highs on GLP-1 medication demand

WPC80 prices hit €13,000/mt and WPI reaches €21,500/mt as GLP-1 medication demand creates shortages in global whey protein markets.

Palm oil prices decline on weaker crude oil and slower Malaysian shipments

BMD crude palm oil fell to $976/mt from $993/mt as Malaysian shipments dropped 19% in November and soybean oil faced pressure from China trade concerns.

Chocolate demand pressures mount with Singles Day spending decline

Cocoa fell more than 9% this week to around 4,202 GBP/t, as Singles Day spending dropped 20% and Barry Callebaut reported a 5.3% fall in chocolate volumes.

Western Europe paperboard demand drops in sharp contrast to other regions

Western Europe's paperboard demand fell sharply in August 2025 while other regions held stable or grew, according to EMGE's latest regional figures.

Exchange rate shift sends US dairy prices into sharp decline

NFDM fell sharply as the exchange rate turned against US exports, with the dollar gaining and the euro losing ground to make US product less competitive.

Trump-Xi meeting drives grain prices higher as markets anticipate soybean trade resumption

US grain futures rallied ahead of the Trump and Xi meeting, with CBOT soybeans jumping to 1,078 cents a bushel from 1,006 two weeks earlier on purchase hopes.

Germany considers ending UCOME double-counting by January 2026

Germany plans to end double-counting for advanced biofuels including UCOME from January 2026 under RED III, potentially reshaping European biodiesel.

Butter markets show temporary stability but underlying weakness remains

European butter trades below €5,000/mt as abundant milk pressures dairy, with the EU VPI at €4,900/mt and SMP and WMP prices expected to decline further.

Global grain surplus puts buyers in control as sellers compete for market share

Record wheat, corn and barley harvests have put buyers in control, with French wheat flour up EUR 2/mt to EUR 284/mt on firmer Euronext milling wheat.

European cheese prices fall as milk production surpluses mount

European cheese prices decline across Gouda, Mozzarella, Cheddar and Emmental as milk production surpluses of 5-7% YOY create abundant supply

European sugar prices trade below import parity while 2026 acreage faces potential cuts

European beet belt sugar prices are trading below the €586 per tonne import parity threshold, while early data points to a 3% acreage cut for 2026.

Dry European weather and China frost risk test global grain outlook

European grain regions face a predominantly dry spell on the ECMWF forecast, while China's central corn and soybean belt braces for potential frost damage.

Cartonboard markets show regional divergence as capacity shifts reshape supply dynamics

Western Europe and Asia face contrasting cartonboard market dynamics as new capacity and mill closures reshape regional supply.

Palm oil prices strengthen as Malaysian stocks tighten and Trump signals renewed China trade talks

Palm oil prices strengthened in October as Malaysian stocks tighten and Trump signals soybeans will be key in China talks.

US dairy markets rebound as butter and cheese prices rise on CME

US butter and cheese bounced back strongly on the CME call, despite mixed cold storage data and continuing questions about long-term market direction.

Record global grain production pressures prices across wheat, corn and barley markets

Global grain markets face downward pressure as record wheat, corn and barley production forecasts overwhelm seasonal patterns.

Argentina's tax holiday triggers massive soybean sales, pressuring global vegetable oil markets

Argentina's brief export tax suspension triggered 1.3 million tonnes of soybean sales to China and 300,000 tonnes of soybean oil to India in three days.

Ukrainian rapeseed export delays drive European oil prices higher

MATIF rapeseed rose EUR 1/mt to EUR 471/mt and crude rapeseed oil FOB Dutch Mill to EUR 1,110/mt, as Ukrainian export delays limit harvest-period supply.

Raw sugar futures break below 16 cents as Brazilian mills weigh ethanol shift

Raw sugar futures closed at 15.9 cents per pound on higher supply expectations and negative fund positioning, as Brazilian mills weigh a shift to ethanol.

Rapeseed oil prices increase on Ukrainian export disruptions and strong rival oils

Rapeseed oil rose EUR 20/mt to EUR 1,081/mt as unclear Ukrainian export mechanisms and rival vegetable oil strength provide support.

US dairy markets fall through support levels as milk oversupply weighs on prices

CME butter fell through the $2/lb support level in a bearish week, as milk production up 3.45% year on year keeps expanding the pool and crushing prices.

Rapeseed supply expands while sunflower markets tighten amid harvest delays

Ukrainian sunflower crop drops to 13.56 mmt while rapeseed forecasts rise 700k mt in Australia. Palm oil gains $20/mt on Malaysian supply concerns. Analysis.

Global dairy markets tumble as demand weakness triggers widespread price declines

Dairy markets face sharp declines as demand weakness triggers widespread selling. Butter approaches critical $2/lb level while milk powder prices fall over 5% a

Canadian canola exports to EU face certification bottleneck while trade tensions with China persist

Canadian canola exports to EU may be capped at 2-4 MMT due to biodiesel certification requirements, forcing exporters to redirect volumes.

China's sugar imports surge while Inner Mongolia records heaviest rainfall since 1956

China's July sugar imports jumped to 740,000 tonnes as record rainfall in Inner Mongolia threatens 30% beet crop losses.

Container shipping rates drop 6% in single week as peak season ends

Container spot rates fell 6% in a week as peak season ends, with Shanghai-Rotterdam showing the steepest decline of any major lane on Drewry's index.

Brazil cuts sugar production forecasts as yields decline

Brazil's Center-South has trimmed 2025/26 sugar output estimates to 40.9-41 million tonnes on lower agricultural yields and declining sugar content in cane.

China UCO exports rise as US policy limits biodiesel feedstock imports

Chinese UCO exports jumped to 262,000 mt in June while US imports plummeted to 93,524 mt following new biofuel credit policies.

Corn oil prices rise $60-130/MT as Middle East tensions drive up energy and shipping Costs

Corn oil prices increase $60-130/MT from June levels, while global corn production reaches record 1.265 billion metric tons.

CBOT soybean prices reach new lows amid China demand concerns

CBOT soybean prices hit new lows at 969 cents per bushel as China plans 10 million tonne import cuts, with weather volatility expected through August.

Trump’s tariff deadline has passed: How it’s affecting agricultural commodity trade, country by country

Trump’s August 1 tariff deadline has passed. Explore how agricultural exports are affected, with a country-by-country breakdown.

Increased inventories in the palm oil market due to slower exports and strong production in Malaysia

Malaysian palm oil inventories rise as production increases 5.52% while exports decline 9.23%. CPO prices drop to $983/mt.

Tracking Trump’s US agri-commodity trade tariffs

US President Donald Trump is set to implement taxes as high as 50% on agricultural imports unless deals can be negotiated before August 1.

Why are U.S. butter prices declining while Europe and New Zealand’s remain high?

US butter prices have fallen sharply on oversupply while Europe and New Zealand hold at elevated levels, showing how far regional supply balances diverge.

What a 50% US tariff could mean for Brazilian orange juice, coffee, and beef trade

US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose a 50% tax on all Brazilian exports could significantly affect global supply and pricing.

August 1 dairy tariffs set to reshape US import markets as European butter hits €7,000

With August 1 approaching, dairy tariff increases are building market tension as European butter reaches €7,000/mt and US whey faces export uncertainty.

Biodiesel prices edge higher as feedstock costs rise amid tariff deadline pressure

FAME0 gains $6/mt to $1,322/mt while UCO prices surge. HVO softens as August tariff deadlines approach. LSGO drops $84/mt on trade war fears.

Biodiesel markets stabilize as "Big Beautiful Bill" reshapes North American feedstock trade

US biofuel law limits feedstocks to North America, challenging Chinese UCO and Brazilian tallow suppliers. LSGO rises $18/mt. Get Vesper's analysis.

How rising coconut oil prices are driving up ice cream costs this summer

Rising coconut oil prices have pushed the cost of ice cream and production to soaring levels. What's behind the increase?

Vegetable oil markets rally as US biodiesel regulations and tariff threats reshape global trade

Palm oil and soybean oil rally as US limits biodiesel credits to North American feedstocks. Tariffs threaten global trade flows.

Biodiesel markets show mixed signals as geopolitical tensions support LSGO prices

FAME0 and UCOME rise on higher LSGO prices while RME drops on harvest pressure, with German HVO demand expected to quadruple this year.

European whey markets face demand drought as Chinese buyers return to US suppliers

European whey markets face challenges as Chinese buyers return to US suppliers. Analysis of sweet whey powder, protein concentrates, and trade dynamics.

Biodiesel prices rebound after sharp decline on Middle East ceasefire

Week 26: biodiesel prices fell hard on the Israel-Iran ceasefire before recovering, as European regulatory changes reshaped HVO and UCO demand.

Oils sector calm for now: 3 key takeaways from Israel-Iran conflict so far

Oil prices climbed Wednesday after Trump announced China can continue buying Iranian oil. Analysis of Middle East tensions, vegetable oils volatility, biofuel m

Global whey markets navigate trade uncertainty as Chinese demand shifts between US and Europe

Latest whey powder market trends as Chinese demand shifts between US and Europe. Expert analysis on WPC80, SWP, and WPI.

Vegetable oil prices surge as geopolitical tensions and biofuel mandates drive market volatility

Vegetable oil markets surge as Brent crude hits $73.23/barrel amid Israel-Iran conflict and EPA proposes higher biofuel targets.

Global starch market outlook: June 2025 trade analysis shows price stability amid supply chain disruptions

Latest starch market intelligence reveals price stability across corn, potato, tapioca & wheat sectors despite trade disruptions.

Biodiesel prices surge as ISCC certificate suspension rocks European market

Week 24: FOB ARA biodiesel prices climb after ISCC certification is suspended for a major European biorefinery and petroleum diesel fundamentals firm.

Vegetable oil markets face supply uncertainty as rapeseed crops disappoint

Rapeseed crops disappoint as EU production cut to 18.6M tons. Palm oil pressured by Malaysian inventory while soy complex gains on energy rally.

Butter breaks $2.50/lb as US celebrates national dairy month amid mixed production signals

US butter climbed back above $2.50/lb on an absence of CME offers, even as April data showed output up 3.86% and protein powders moved the other way.

Biodiesel markets caught in regulatory whirlwind as policy uncertainty deepens

Washington's tariff reversals create biodiesel market paralysis. Congressional incentives pending while feedstock flows shift.

Whey markets struggle to find middle ground as trade tensions intensify

Whey ingredient prices hit extremes as trade tensions disrupt markets. WPC80 up 255% in 2 years while lactose, WPI show volatile swings.

China's massive Sugar purchases signal market shift as Asian production outlook strengthens

Chinese buyers took an estimated 2.5 million tonnes of raw sugar in May, exhausting the import quota, while Thailand's production outlook strengthens.

Biodiesel markets face mixed pressures as feedstock dynamics shift in late May 2025

European biodiesel prices diverge in late May 2025 as FOB ARA UCOME slips, UCO imports surge 17% and RME strengthens on rapeseed supply concerns.

Sugar prices under pressure as global surplus expectations dominate market sentiment

Global sugar surplus drives prices lower despite European beet acreage cuts and drought stress. Raw sugar hits 17.2 cents/lb.

US-China tariff relief reshapes global whey and lactose markets

Latest Vesper Price Index shows European WPC80 at €12,000/mt while US prices hover at €9,249/mt amid temporary China tariff reductions.

Biodiesel market watch week 20: UCO prices under pressure on higher supply to EU

Week 20 biodiesel analysis: UCO prices weaken in China and Europe as softer demand meets rising EU supply, with imports up 16.8% on US import tariffs.

US dairy market weekly: Cheese prices surge amid trade deal developments

Discover how the new US-China trade agreement is driving a $0.12/lb cheese price rally and creating export opportunities for US dairy producers in our latest ma

US-China trade tensions create pricing arbitrage opportunities in global dairy markets

Latest Vesper Price Index reveals significant arbitrage opportunities in global dairy markets with EU WPC80 prices 33% higher than US. Discover how shifting tra

US-China tariffs disrupt global dairy market: whey markets see 38% price gap

Latest dairy market intelligence reveals significant price divergence as US-China tariffs disrupt global whey supply chains. See how production growth across US

CBOT Soybean Oil Reclaims Premium Over BMD Crude Palm Oil After Prolonged Discount

Soybean oil has moved back above palm oil after a prolonged discount, on shifts in supply patterns, currencies and trade signals across both of these markets.

US dairy markets hold steady amid global economic turbulence, tariff negotiations critical for export outlook

Discover how US dairy markets remain stable amid economic turbulence, with February production trends and 90-day tariff negotiations reshaping export dynamics.

Biodiesel markets react to Trump's tariff pause

Biodiesel markets rebound as Trump pauses tariffs for 90 days while escalating the China trade war to 125%, leaving traders to price fresh uncertainty.

Global dairy market shifts as US-China tariffs reshape whey trade flows

China's 104% tariffs on US whey products are reshaping global dairy trade flows, pushing Chinese buyers toward European suppliers instead.

Global vegetable oil markets disrupted by Trump's 10-50% tariff policy: Palm, Soy, Rapeseed, and Sunflower Oil impacts

Trump's 10 to 50% tariffs are rippling through global vegetable oil markets. What palm, soybean, rapeseed and sunflower oil buyers need to know right now.

Global biodiesel markets brace for impact as Trump imposes sweeping tariffs

New Trump tariffs of up to 54% on China trigger 44% retaliatory tax on US soybeans while threatening 2.5MMT of UCO imports.

Global dairy markets face perfect storm: US tariffs, FMD, and supply imbalances

New US tariffs, China's retaliation and foot-and-mouth cases in Europe are converging to reshape global dairy trade patterns and regional supply balances.

Whey protein markets: diverging paths between concentrates and sweet whey powder

Latest whey market analysis reveals supply constraints driving WPC80 and WPI prices, while sweet whey powder buyers remain hesitant ahead of Q2.

Canola Market Faces Pressure: MATIF Rapeseed and ICE Canola Prices Tumble Amid China's Tariff Implementation

MATIF rapeseed and ICE canola prices tumble as China imposes 100% tariff on Canadian canola products. European markets brace for influx while Australia raises p

Trade wars trigger global vegetable oil price decline: Vesper's week 10 market analysis

Trump's tariffs drive global veg oil prices down despite tight Malaysian palm stocks. Bearish outlook for palm oil through 2025.

Biodiesel market update: prices decline amid increased Asian supply

Week 8 biodiesel update: Prices drop as Asian imports impact demand. Stay informed on feedstock trends and biofuel policy shifts.

EU enforces final anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese Biodiesel – market reacts

EU enforces final anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese biodiesel, cutting exports to record lows and reshaping global trade. Explore the market impact.

Global Biodiesel and Vegetable Oil Markets See Mixed Movements Amid Political and Economic Developments

Explore the latest trends in biodiesel and vegetable oil markets, including price drops, regulatory updates, and global supply forecasts.

How the Dairy Market is Reacting to Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Germany: Impact on Butter, SMP, and WMP Exports and Prices

Explore how foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Germany is disrupting the dairy market. Get insights on the impact on butter, SMP, and WMP prices

Whey Protein Prices Remain High: Market Adjustments and Geopolitical Tensions

Geopolitical uncertainty and shifting market dynamics impacting the whey protein market. Get insights on the 2025 outlook and price trends.

Biodiesel Market Update: Key Trends Driving Price Dynamics

Biodiesel prices have dropped sharply on softer demand and a steep decline in used cooking oil values. The key trends now shaping pricing across regions.

4 Key Factors Driving Biodiesel Prices to New Highs

Discover the top 4 factors driving biodiesel prices to new highs, from increased demand and German regulations to supply disruptions.

U.S. Clean Fuels Tax Credit (45Z) Guidance Looms, Poised to Shake Up Vegetable Oil and Biofuel Markets

Explore the 45Z tax credit's impact on biofuels, U.S.-sourced feedstocks, and global vegetable oil trade as industry awaits new guidance.

Canadian Canola Shipments Rise Amid Chinese Buyers' Uncertainty Over Antidumping Investigation

Canadian canola shipments surge amid Chinese antidumping concerns, as MATIF rapeseed prices rise and ICE Canola holds steady. Explore the market impact.

Upward Pressure for Global Lactose Prices

Global lactose prices rise due to tightening supply and strong demand, with the EU and US Vesper Price Indices reflecting increased costs.

How Middle East Tensions Are Shaping the Biodiesel and Feedstock Markets

Explore the latest trends in the EU biodiesel and feedstock markets, influenced by fluctuations in LSGO prices amid Middle East tensions.

Vegetable Oils Prices Down as Brent Crude Oil Hits Lowest Level This Year

Brent crude oil hits a yearly low, leading to a decline in palm oil, soybean oil, and other vegetable oil benchmarks. View the latest prices.

BMD Palm Maintains Tight Spread with CBOT Soy Oil Amid Historically Low June and July (est. by Vesper) Indonesia Stocks

Explore how BMD palm oil prices are maintaining a tight spread with CBOT soybean oil amid supply and demand shifts in Indonesia.

More Attention to Sustainable Aviation Fuel as EU Excludes It from Antidumping Duties

Discover how the European Commission's latest anti-dumping measures impact biodiesel markets and why SAF is gaining strategic importance.

Trump Sends CBOT Beans to Multiyear Lows?

Soybean prices in Chicago and Brazil hit multiyear lows despite the USDA lowering its projections for soybean production and ending stocks.

European biodiesel prices are strengthening due to strong LSGO prices

Rising LSGO demand, geopolitical tensions, and potential Dutch HBE ticket policy changes are driving up European biodiesel prices, Vesper reports.

Biodiesel Prices Drop from Highs Amid LSGO Decline

Despite a recent decline, biodiesel values remain elevated, influenced by the Israel-Hamas conflict and OPEC+'s production decisions.

Accelerated Sugarcane Milling in Brazil and Its Global Impact

Discover how dry weather has accelerated sugarcane milling in Central-South Brazil, boosting sugar production and impacting global markets.

Dairy Market: European liquids prices are through the roof, with cream reaching extremely high

Discover the latest trends in the European dairy market. Declining milk production and more buyers influencing butter, SMP, and WMP prices.

Biodiesels and feedstock up, EU biofuel processing margins still tight

The latest in EU biodiesel dynamics: Prices firm amid rising feedstock costs and tight margins, with transport challenges affecting market

Global Palm Oil Prices Slide Amidst Recovering Production and Export Challenges

Explore the decline in global palm oil prices due to increased Malaysian production and reduced exports, impacting stock levels.

Increase in West-EU Biodiesel Prices Following New Legislations and Import Duties

Explore the significant increase in West-EU biodiesel prices driven by new German legislation and anticipated import duties.

Germany allows HVO100 and B10 sales at gas stations, driving ARA biodiesels up

RME, UCOME, FAME 0, and HVO (UCO) prices have all soared in West-EU markets in response to Germany's B10 and HVO100 pump sales policy change.

Palm Oil and Soybean Oil Prices: Latest Updates and Future Projections

Stay updated on palm oil and soybean oil prices, with insights from the latest MPOB report and impact of mineral oil price.

Biodiesel prices are now at their lowest levels since June 2023

Biodiesel Prices Plummet: Discover the four reasons behind the decrease in biodiesel prices, now at their lowest levels since June 2023.

Vegetable oils, except palm oil, have weakened since the last report, influenced by the Red Sea crisis and a bumper soybean supply.

Vegetable oils other than palm have weakened on the Red Sea crisis and bumper soybean supply, while heavy Malaysian rain cut January palm oil output.