International peanut supply is dwindling at all origins, with the only help possibly coming from the US and China, according to Alimenta Agri LLC’s September market report. Argentina planted 25% to 26% less, and heavy delays on the last 20% to 25% of the harvest hurt yields and quality, leaving much lower availability for traditional markets and, the report expects, no carryover by the end of the season. Brazil’s previous crop fell 30%, and new plantings could drop by a similar amount as farmers face a lack of credit, high interest rates and heavy debt. India planted about the same as last year, but rainfall problems point to lower yields, with a consensus of around 20% down. Alimenta says it looks almost certain that international prices will keep rising, for Western Europe and other markets alike.
The US sits on the other side of that picture. USDA puts the 2026 crop at 2.634 million short tons, down 26.6%, after planted acres fell 27.65% and the yield estimate slipped to 3,879 lbs/acre. The record 2025 carryover means total supply should still be adequate. Demand is soft: USDA’s August stocks and processing data showed total edible use down 4.52% year on year, with candy down 7.52% and snacks down 9.18%. Alimenta doubts USDA’s forecast of 2.97% growth in domestic demand and sees next season’s carryover closer to 1.2 million short tons. Current-crop prices have still firmed over the past month, and renewed EU interest is the one bright spot on demand, with US current crop priced more competitively than Argentine raw product.
China: a trade deal and a rumor
The trade deal agreed at the Trump-Xi meeting includes US shelled peanuts and farmerstock, along with roasted peanuts and peanut butter. The terms are unclear, but Alimenta says the deal should hopefully lead to the cancellation of the additional 10% tax on US imports, possibly from October 1. At the same time, there are rumors that China could ban US farmerstock imports, and the US is the only origin currently exporting farmerstock there. US exports to China reached 14,377 tonnes in July, while total US exports rose 66% on the year to 49,179 tonnes.
In the US shelling industry, local reporting says Delta Peanut, the only sheller in Arkansas, could cease operations in October. If it does, its customers would have to come back into the market to cover their volumes, an unexpected source of demand.
Reported by Alimenta Agri LLC.
