Brazil news — Vesper

Brazil's coffee shipments raise the odds of a stock rebuild

Coffee futures fell about 3% on the week while Brazil heads for possible record exports, which could start rebuilding ICE certified coffee stocks.

Coffee falls back below $3 after Brazil's farmers sell

A weaker real lifted the value of a Brazilian grower's coffee by up to 13%, selling followed, and futures gave back roughly 6% to close under $3 a pound.

Lula's win knocked Brazil's currency, and sugar went with it

The real posted its biggest drawdown since 1999 after Lula's re-election, pulling raw sugar nearly 5% lower in a single session with fund length already high.

Record EU broiler supply meets the worst Newcastle year in two decades

EU broiler prices eased for a second week on record production, while Newcastle Disease outbreaks hit a 20-year high and Polish prices fell to a 2021 low.

Chocolate demand splits: Lindt cuts guidance, Nestlé grows volume

Lindt cut its full-year sales guidance and lost its chief executive while Nestlé grew chocolate volumes 5.4%, leaving cocoa demand without one direction.

Coffee rallies through its range as graded stocks stay away

No significant grades reached the exchange last week, which the market read as bullish, and momentum carried arabica through the $3 a pound barrier on Friday.

Coffee gives back its rally while Brazil's election moves the real

Coffee futures touched $3.08 a pound before closing the week at $2.906, while a surprise first-round result in Brazil's election sent the real sharply higher.

Funds add to their sugar bets while Brazil's crush slows in the rain

Raw sugar futures are back above 21 US cents a pound for the first time since February 2025, while rain cut Brazil's early September cane crush by a third.

German HVO100 demand is on course to double this year

HVO100 has traded below B7 diesel across Germany since mid-August for the first time, and 2026 consumption is now put at more than double last year's.

Newcastle disease hits a 20-year high while EU chicken prices ease

EU broiler prices fell for a third week to €187/100kg on record supply, while Newcastle disease outbreaks reached 157 this year, the most in two decades.

Coffee breaks above its range while exchange gradings slow

Coffee futures rose 20 cents in two weeks to 292.55 US cents a pound, while the market asks whether enough coffee will be certified for December.

Brazil's rains trim this season's sugar and may pad the next

Heavy rain has cut Brazil's sugar output and could leave a record volume of cane in the fields for 2027/28, while drought in India weakens its export outlook.

Peanut supply thins abroad while US stocks stay heavy

Argentina, Brazil and India point to smaller peanut crops while the US leans on record carryover, and Alimenta expects international prices to rise.

Coffee speculators turn net short for the second time

Investors moved net short on coffee futures as the December contract fell 7.5 cents to 276.4 cents a pound, with Brazil still holding coffee left to sell.

EU poultry prices pull back as bird migration starts

European poultry output is running 4.4% ahead of last year and prices have come off their 2026 highs, just as the autumn bird migration season begins.

Europe's sugar import gap is wider than the quotas can fill

Only about 766,000 tonnes of the EU's 2.4 million tonnes of eligible sugar import volume is likely to arrive at current prices, leaving a real shortfall.

October white sugar delivery lands at a third of last year's

Under 500,000 tonnes were delivered against October London white sugar, against over 1.5 million a year ago, while funds built their largest long since 2023.

Record Brazilian shipments leave coffee near flat on the week

Brazil shipped a seasonal record of Arabica and Robusta in August, yet December coffee fell only 0.8 cents on the week. Outside markets explain the gap.

Red chilli breaks a month of stasis with a 16% jump

Delhi 334 red chilli moved 16% in a week after a month near $253/quintal, with Andhra's monsoon 40% below normal. Nepal's bumper crop is resetting big cardamom.

Brazil's record-wet September pulls arabica below $3

The December contract lost 18.15 cents to $2.91 a pound. Brazil is on track for one of its wettest September starts on record, with flowering spreading widely.

Cocoa drops 12% in a week short on fundamental news

ICE Europe fell 12% and ICE US 11% on little fresh input, while Ghana's proposed farmgate price sits around 75% above the Ivorian level for the new season.

Brazilian selling pulls coffee back toward $3

December coffee fell 9.8 cents to 311.50 US cents per pound as Brazilian exporters stepped up hedging. Sucafina sees support near $3 per pound.

India's duty-free sugar imports lose their appeal

India approved 1 MMT of duty-free raw sugar imports, but mills may take only half of it. EU output is set to fall almost 20% as drought hits beet yields.

The audit ends a day after Brazil loses EU poultry access

New EU antimicrobial rules took effect on 3 September and the audit of Brazilian producers finished on the 4th. Brussels has set no timeline to restore access.

Coffee rallies again while Arabica stays in surplus

December coffee finished at $3.4165/lb after a 23.75 cent weekly gain. The market agrees Arabica is in surplus, so the rally is about something else.

US cattle placements fall 11% and feedyard losses deepen

July placements came in at 1.42 million head, well short of every estimate, while feedyards carry cash losses of $300 to $400 a head and rising corn costs.

Brazil's uncommitted crop keeps a lid on coffee's nearby squeeze

Coffee futures rose to $3.179 a pound on tight nearby supply, but Sucafina expects prices to slide as Brazilian farmers still hold a large, unsold Arabica crop.

India moves toward its first major sugar imports since 2017

India is weighing a cut to its 100% sugar import tax as a weak monsoon threatens next season's cane crop, with global prices already firming.

Europe's sugar beet crop has run out of time to recover

Drought has pushed EU beet yields in France, Belgium, the Netherlands and the UK past recovery, weeks before harvest starts.

EU sets an audit timeline for Brazil's poultry ban, opens a duck dispute with China

The EU has attached a firm audit calendar to Brazil's poultry suspension and opened a new anti-dumping case against Chinese duck imports.

Wheat prices ease despite an unresolved Black Sea problem

Wheat pulled back this fortnight even though the Black Sea disruption remains unresolved, while corn, barley and soybean each moved on their own drivers.

Brazil's coffee quality disappoints, and ICE-certified stocks stay tight

Sucafina says Brazil's new coffee crop is falling short on cup quality and screen size, leaving little relief for coffee's shrinking ICE-certified stockpile.

El Niño risk spreads across sugar-growing regions, lifting prices

Sugar futures rose 3.8% as El Niño intensifies, threatening crops in Brazil, India, Thailand and the EU just as the 2026/27 balance tightens.

Coffee futures rally: exchange stocks fall below a key threshold

ICE-certified coffee stocks dropped below the closely watched 300,000-bag threshold, pushing the September contract up 17.3 cents on the week.

Why sugar prices held steady through a volatile week

Raw sugar futures stayed under 14.70 cents a pound even as oil markets swung wildly, with EU beet yield cuts and Brazilian crushing delays in focus.

Black Sea disruption and EU heat lift wheat and corn to multi-year highs

Euronext milling wheat and corn jumped to multi-year highs as Black Sea shipping attacks and a European heatwave hit crops heading into harvest.

Spain's Newcastle disease outbreaks nearly triple; Brazil braces for an EU ban

Newcastle disease outbreaks nearly tripled in Spain in two weeks while Brazil faces an EU poultry export ban from September, tightening the supply outlook.

Bullish signals stack up across the vegetable oil complex

Brent, palm, soy, rapeseed and sunflower oil are all firming as energy, tariffs and Black Sea disruption stack bullish drivers across the complex.

Coffee pulls back from record rally, settles near $3.30

Coffee futures cooled this week, with the September contract settling near $3.30/lb after a record rally. What happens next hinges on Brazil's harvest.

Sugar eases as India's monsoon catches up

Sugar prices have eased as India's monsoon narrowed its rainfall deficit, pulling weather risk premium out of the market against a firmer longer-term backdrop.

Coffee posts its biggest one-day gain on record

Arabica futures jumped 72 cents in a week, including the largest single-day gain on record. Sucafina traces the move to fund flows and El Niño risk.

Poultry week 28: heat losses in Europe, record exports from Brazil

A record heatwave cut European poultry supply while Spain's Newcastle Disease cases and Brazil trade tensions add risk. Vesper's week 28 poultry view.

US peanut acres drop 21.8%; supply tightens across origins

USDA puts US peanut plantings down 21.8%. With Argentina's harvest delayed and Brazil's area shrinking, Alimenta Agri sees prices heading higher.

White sugar rallies on weather risk while physical prices sit still

White sugar futures rallied to $475/mt on El Niño and heatwave risk to crops in India and the EU, even as physical prices stayed calm on comfortable supply.

Brazil sets a poultry export record, but EU access hangs in the balance

Brazil posted its strongest poultry export month on record in May 2026, with chicken revenue topping $1 billion, yet EU market access hangs in the balance.

Coffee futures slide as speculators build their biggest short since 2023

Coffee futures fell again, the July contract down 13.3 cents to 245.9 US cents/lb, as speculators built their largest short position since 2023, says Sucafina.

Grains slip across the board on better US weather

Grain prices fell over two weeks as better US and EU weather, weaker soybeans and softer Brent crude pulled wheat, corn and barley back off recent gains.

Chicken prices fell across the board last month, but the autumn outlook points higher

Brazilian chicken breast fillet led a broad poultry decline, dropping 16% to around €2,890 per tonne, in a month where every benchmark Vesper tracks fell.

Coffee futures slide to a two-year low as Brazil's harvest builds

Coffee futures fell 13.7 cents on the July contract to $2.60 a pound, the lowest since November 2024, as Brazil's harvest builds, according to Sucafina.

Brazil's bumper crush and softer oil weigh on sugar prices

A strong Brazilian result and weaker oil have offset El Niño risk to keep sugar under pressure, with crude down about 4% and holding below $100 a barrel.

US peanut acres set to shrink, lifting the price floor

The peanut market has moved back into cost-of-production territory after a long oversupply, with firm prices across the US, Argentina and Brazil.

Brazil loses EU poultry access from September; the authorisation body meets too late to fix it

The European Commission has confirmed Brazil cannot export poultry meat to the EU from 3 September 2026, after missing the antimicrobial compliance list.

Roasters build strongest seasonal coverage since 2022 as arabica futures hold at $2.70

The July arabica contract finished 8 cents higher at 272.35 US cents per pound, finding firmer support at $2.70 than expected as roasters built coverage.

Südzucker's sugar division posts €177 million loss as S&P turns negative

Südzucker's sugar division posted a €177 million operating loss in 2025/26 against €13 million a year earlier, and S&P cut its debt outlook to negative.

Coffee futures fall to $2.64 as US demand weakens and Brazil's record crop approaches

Coffee futures dropped to $2.64 per pound with the July contract losing 18.1 cents, as US demand weakened and Brazil's record crop drew closer.

Grains slip on US-China summit disappointment despite tight wheat supply underneath

The US-China summit brought no soybean purchase commitments and no tariff cuts, and CBOT soybeans fell from 1,207 to 1,174 cents per bushel in response.

Sugar's 2026/27 deficit is confirmed, but the size gap between forecasters is enormous

The International Sugar Organization projects a 2026/27 global deficit of 262,000 tonnes, a directional signal, though the spread between forecasters is huge.

Coffee fails to break range despite fresh spec buying

The July ICE coffee contract closed the week 3.2 cents lower at 282.3 US cents/lb, even as speculators added 1,645 lots to their net long, a 9.9% increase.

Cotton rally and drought threaten US peanut crop, acreage cuts could top 20%

The US peanut market has reversed from oversupply concern to whether growers can plant at all, as cotton climbs at least 18% and pulls acreage away.

Energy market strength lifts sugar to one-month high

Raw sugar extended its climb, with the NY11 July contract closing at a one-month high of 15.37 USc/lb on stronger oil and a firmer Brazilian real.

El Niño risk reshapes sugar's 2026/27 supply outlook

Raw sugar edged higher on Brazil's planned anhydrous ethanol blend increase from 30% to 32% and firmer crude, with Sugar No. 11 settling at 14.11 cents/lb.

Gulf shipping disruption reshapes Indian spice export flows

Conflict in West Asia and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz are reshaping Indian spice exports, with sellers avoiding freight-inclusive terms entirely.

Coffee futures slip to USD 2.88/lb on improved roaster coverage

Coffee futures fell 8.5 cents to USD 2.878/lb on the July contract, dropping below the USD 2.90 to 3.05 range that held through the Iran conflict.

European cocoa grindings drop to decade low on weak chocolate demand

European cocoa grindings fell 7.8% year on year in Q1 2026 to 325,895 mt, the lowest quarterly total in more than a decade, on weak chocolate demand.

China set to overtake Brazil as world's top chicken meat producer

USDA forecasts point to a 5% rise in Chinese poultry output in 2026, enough to push China past Brazil as the world's largest chicken meat producer.

Wheat and corn prices fall on lower crude and higher supply estimates

Euronext milling wheat dropped to EUR 194/mt from EUR 205/mt and French wheat flour to EUR 309/mt, after a broadly bearish April WASDE report.

Sugar retreats from March highs on easing geopolitical risk

Sugar No. 11 stood at 13.88 cents/lb and No. 5 white at $424/mt on April 14, as ample supply and India holding its export quota outweighed easing geopolitics.

Middle East conflict drives Brazilian chicken prices higher

Brazilian chicken prices reversed sharply in week 14, with whole bird and cut prices up 5% to 7%, driven by further escalation of the Middle East conflict.

Coffee futures pull back sharply after brief rally, with Brazil's harvest on the horizon

Coffee futures fell sharply, the May contract losing 14.45 cents to 292.55 US cents per pound, after a brief run to $3.19/lb met heavy commercial selling.

Grains hold firm on crude oil support, but markets watch for de-escalation signals

Wheat, corn, barley and soybeans stayed elevated on Brent crude support, though US signals that the Middle East conflict could end soon are being priced in.

Sugar prices edge higher on crude oil rally, but fundamentals stay soft

Sugar moved modestly higher on a sharp rise in crude oil rather than any change in supply and demand, with gains trimmed once ceasefire talks emerged.

Coffee futures break above $3/lb as tight supply and energy costs provide support

Coffee futures rose 14.15 cents on the week to close at USD 3.07/lb on the May contract, breaking above $3.00 for the first time on tight supply and energy.

Record Brazilian exports push global poultry prices lower

Global poultry heads into late March broadly bearish, with Brazilian and Thai origins falling across whole birds, breast meat and wings on record exports.

Cocoa farmers in Brazil cancel expansion plans as low prices bite

Brazilian cocoa farmers expect to cancel around 50% of planned industrial cultivation projects, as prices below $3,000/t make new investment unviable.

Coffee futures pull back on record Brazil crop expectations

Coffee futures fell 4.05 cents on the week to 292.85 US cents/lb on the May contract, after touching 297.45, as record Brazil crop expectations weighed.

Why a $100 oil price isn't lifting sugar markets

Crude briefly touched $100 a barrel after the Strait of Hormuz closed, yet sugar has barely responded, with Sugar No. 11 edging up to just 14.45 cents/lb.

US broiler market: weak export start, steady domestic demand

US broiler exports started 2026 slowly at 524 million pounds in January, while domestic dark meat markets have held relatively steady. What is shaping both.

Bakery market forecast 2026: flour, starches, eggs, dairy, vegetable oils, sugar, cocoa, nuts

Bakery procurement in H2 2026 faces mixed signals: some ingredients are softening, others under renewed pressure, and a handful in genuinely tight supply.

Chocolate forecast 2026: cocoa, sugar, vegetable oils, nuts

Chocolate manufacturers face an ingredient picture very different from the start of the year: cocoa has fallen sharply while other input costs have risen.

European chicken market forecast 2026: prices fall on Brazilian import increase, avian flu risk persists

European chicken prices have fallen sharply since the ban on Brazilian poultry was lifted, as exports from Brazil to Europe more than tripled from November.

Glucose syrup and dextrose stabilise after 2025 correction, with energy costs the main upside risk

Glucose syrup and dextrose corrected through 2025 on easing corn and wheat costs, Turkish and Brazilian imports and soft demand. Energy is the upside risk.

Pizza, pasta, savory snack forecast: flour, tomate, chicken, beef, pork, mozzarella, olive oil

H2 2026 brings pizza, pasta and snack manufacturers near-term stability alongside building supply risk, with some procurement windows unlikely to last.

Soybean oil price forecast 2026: US biofuel policy drives sharp price increase, Argentine discount widens

CBOT crude soybean oil has risen to 65.33 US cents/lb from 48.56 at the start of the year, on firmer Brent and expectations US biofuel policy lands in March.

Sugar market forecast: raw, white, sweeteners

Sugar in 2026 is a surplus market, but the headline hides a lot: energy, Brazilian cane allocation and European supply all pull the picture in different ways.

Sugar markets stabilise after Q1 surplus pressure, with Brazil and energy dynamics shaping the outlook

Raw and white sugar spent most of Q1 under surplus pressure before stabilising into early March, as strengthening energy markets provided the counterweight.

Supply tightens and shipments slow across tree nut markets

Cashew prices are moving, Brazil nut supply is tightening and pecan shipments are down 35% year on year. What is driving each tree nut market this month.

Coffee approaches $3/lb as geopolitical risks support market

Coffee futures rallied toward $3 per pound, with the May contract up 12.3 cents to $2.969, as geopolitical tension and shipping risk tightened supply.

High EU sugar stocks keep market under pressure

EU sugar stocks have reached their highest level for this point in three years as the beet campaign ends, keeping the market under sustained pressure.

How the Middle East conflict is moving commodity markets

As the Middle East conflict disrupts the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude tops $105, find out how it's moving prices across commodity markets.

Weather anomalies raise risks across key sugar regions

Unusual February weather raised production risks across Europe, Brazil, India and China, with northern France recording rainfall far above the seasonal norm.

Grain prices rise on Middle East conflict, with wheat, corn and soybeans all moving higher

Grain markets rose over two weeks with the Middle East conflict the main driver, as Brent crude gained $8.50 to $81.40 a barrel and lifted wheat and corn.

Sugar prices near multi-year lows as global surplus holds, crude volatility adds uncertainty

Sugar hit multi-year lows in mid-February before recovering, with Sugar No. 11 at 13.93 cents/lb on 3 March as crude volatility offset a global surplus.

European poultry market remains under pressure after brief February recovery

A brief February recovery on the return of school meals and monthly salaries has not reversed the broader downward trend in European poultry prices.

Coffee prices ease as market weighs tariff ruling against supply dynamics

Coffee on the May contract fell 3.6 cents over two weeks to 285 US cents per pound, as a US tariff ruling and supply signals pulled in opposite directions.

Sugar markets hit five-year lows as global surplus weighs on prices

Raw sugar fell to 13.86 cents/lb and white to $403/mt, the lowest since October 2020, as a projected surplus and rising European stocks weigh on the market.

Palm oil prices decline on weak February exports; POC conference flags 2026 supply risks

BMD CPO settled at $1,030/mt from $1,043/mt on weak early-February exports and Lunar New Year, while the POC Malaysia conference flagged 2026 supply risks.

South American supply boom reshapes corn oil trade flows

A record Argentine harvest and strong Brazilian estimates keep corn oil under pressure, with Conab revising Brazil's crop up to 138.87 million metric tons.

WPC80 shortage intensifies with producers in control of pricing and allocation

Global whey protein concentrate 80 market reaches critical tightness with structural shortage affecting all whey products. Producers control pricing as domestic

Soybean prices jump on China trade talks and U.S. crush demand

CBOT soybeans surged to 1,115 cents a bushel from 1,068 on US-China trade progress, new 45Z biofuel rules and strong December domestic crush demand.

Polish chicken prices fall as Avian Influenza outbreak triggers 2.79 million bird cull

Poland reported 22 new avian influenza outbreaks and culled 2.79 million birds, sending Polish chicken breast prices down 3.7% while French prices rose.

U.S. broiler production forecast at 1.5% growth for 2026

US broiler production is projected at 48.7 billion pounds in 2026, up 1.5%, a downward revision from 2.1% after LEAP analysts adjusted their weight assumptions.

Palm oil prices rise on strong January exports as Indian buyers shift from soybean oil

BMD crude palm oil rose to $1,051/mt from $1,003/mt on Malaysian January exports up 8-10%, as Indian buyers cancelled soybean oil shipments in favour of palm.

European poultry fillet prices face continued pressure after holiday demand fades

Chicken breast and fillet prices fell across Europe in January as holiday demand faded, extending a decline that began in the second half of 2025.

EU egg market faces structural supply pressure as avian influenza culls and trade restrictions tighten availability

Empty shelves across Austria, Germany and France signal structural supply tightness in EU egg markets. HPAI culls, slow restocking

India's sugar production jumps 22% while global surplus widens to 4.7 million tonnes

India's sugar production rose 22% to 15.9 million tonnes through mid-January, while analysts widened the 2025/26 global surplus forecast to 4.7 million tonnes.

Brazilian sugar mills drop allocation to 35.5% in seventh consecutive fortnight decline

Brazilian sugar allocation fell for a seventh consecutive fortnight to 35.5%, down from 44.6% a year earlier, raising questions about the 2026/27 season.

Indian importers secure 150,000 metric tons monthly of South American soy oil

Indian buyers have committed to more than 150,000 tonnes of South American soybean oil a month from April to July 2025, fearing tighter palm and sunflower.

Coffee futures hold range despite record December delivery amid tariff relief

Coffee traded a 370-390 range as a record December delivery inversion worth a $21 million premium offset US tariff relief on Brazilian coffee imports.

European sugar processors announce 2026 acreage cuts following stock accumulation

European processors have announced larger-than-expected 2026 acreage cuts on high stocks, while Brazilian mills wrap up early with 120 units finished.

Coffee futures fall 16.55 cents amid partial US tariff relief

Coffee futures fell 16.55 cents to $376.6 US cents/lb after the White House announced tariff exemptions that excluded both Brazil and India from relief.

Coffee futures hold near $4 amid Supreme Court tariff uncertainty

Coffee futures ended the week at 393.15 US cents per pound, within reach of $4, as the Supreme Court weighs the legality of tariffs imposed under IEEPA.

Coffee futures rise to $387.7 as index roll period supports market

Coffee futures climbed to $387.7 cents per pound as strong roaster demand and the approaching index roll period prevented the correction the market expected.

Arabica prices seen falling to $3.50 per pound on political and supply shifts

Coffee futures are heading for a correction toward $3.50 per pound from 391.55 cents, as Trump signals tariff relief and Brazil's crop outlook improves.

Raw sugar prices hit four-year lows on surplus concerns

Raw sugar futures fell to 14.37 cents per pound, the lowest since April 2021, after São Paulo conferences raised Brazilian output and Indian export concerns.

Trump-Xi meeting drives grain prices higher as markets anticipate soybean trade resumption

US grain futures rallied ahead of the Trump and Xi meeting, with CBOT soybeans jumping to 1,078 cents a bushel from 1,006 two weeks earlier on purchase hopes.

Coffee prices climb on tight supply concerns despite favorable Brazilian weather

Coffee futures gained 13.9 cents to 413.55 US cents per pound as certified stocks decline and US-Colombia trade tension threatens supply, defying forecasts.

Global grain surplus puts buyers in control as sellers compete for market share

Record wheat, corn and barley harvests have put buyers in control, with French wheat flour up EUR 2/mt to EUR 284/mt on firmer Euronext milling wheat.

Coffee futures decline 17.7 cents to 373.60 cents per pound

Coffee prices dropped to 373.60 cents/lb last week. Brazilian rainfall supports 26/27 crop development with expectations of 5+ million bags..

Dry European weather and China frost risk test global grain outlook

European grain regions face a predominantly dry spell on the ECMWF forecast, while China's central corn and soybean belt braces for potential frost damage.

Coffee futures rise as certified stock decertification accelerates

Coffee futures rose 12.7 cents to 390.75 US cents per pound on the December contract, driven by rapid ICE stock decertification and Brazilian weather worries.

Raw sugar futures recover as Brazilian mills eye ethanol production shift

Raw sugar futures bounced back to 16.1 cents/lb as Brazilian mills signal potential pivot to ethanol production. European yields exceed forecasts..

Record global grain production pressures prices across wheat, corn and barley markets

Global grain markets face downward pressure as record wheat, corn and barley production forecasts overwhelm seasonal patterns.

Coffee prices increase on inventory drawdown after technical selloff

Coffee rallied after ICE certified stocks fell 11.5% in five days, with the December contract jumping 11.55 cents to $3.7805 and reversing a technical selloff.

EU deforestation rules create compliance challenges for cocoa exporters

The EU deforestation regulation poses major compliance challenges for cocoa exporters and their tracking systems, though a second delay may bring relief.

Raw sugar futures break below 16 cents as Brazilian mills weigh ethanol shift

Raw sugar futures closed at 15.9 cents per pound on higher supply expectations and negative fund positioning, as Brazilian mills weigh a shift to ethanol.

Coffee prices break trading range as Brazil weather and supply tightness drive market higher

Coffee prices rose 23.2 cents/lb to $396.85 per pound as ICE certified stocks fell 23,000 bags and Brazil's rainy season finally returns.

Rapeseed supply expands while sunflower markets tighten amid harvest delays

Ukrainian sunflower crop drops to 13.56 mmt while rapeseed forecasts rise 700k mt in Australia. Palm oil gains $20/mt on Malaysian supply concerns. Analysis.

Cocoa price discovery breaks down as structural problems persist

Cocoa markets struggle with broken price signals as Ghana's debt crisis deepens and Brazilian farmers face oligopolistic pricing pressure from processors.

Brazil lifts sugar production to five-year high while Europe faces oversupply

Brazil’s Center–South mills pushed sugar output to the highest early-August level in five years, with 55% of cane directed to sugar.

Côte d'Ivoire cocoa crop faces weather challenges as rain distribution remains uneven

West African cocoa regions are seeing mixed rainfall ahead of harvest, with uneven distribution across Côte d'Ivoire and different conditions recorded in Ghana.

Coffee futures hit $3.78 as roaster panic drives eight-day rally

Coffee futures rose 44.10 cents to $3.78/lb on the December contract, an eighth straight day of gains, as roaster buying increased by 17% on the week.

Brazil cuts sugar production forecasts as yields decline

Brazil's Center-South has trimmed 2025/26 sugar output estimates to 40.9-41 million tonnes on lower agricultural yields and declining sugar content in cane.

Coffee futures rally 32 cents in one week amid Brazilian import tariffs

Coffee futures surge to 314.05 cents/lb as 50% US tariffs on Brazilian imports force roasters to restructure supply chains.

Sugar contract negotiations see delayed activity in European market this year

European sugar contracting is running later than the usual June-July window, as elevated 2024 production leaves higher stock availability across the market.

Sugar prices drop to 16 cents as Brazil's Center-South production picks up pace

Sugar prices decline to near 16 cents/lb driven by Brazil's Center-South production increase and potential Indian export expansion.

Corn oil prices rise $60-130/MT as Middle East tensions drive up energy and shipping Costs

Corn oil prices increase $60-130/MT from June levels, while global corn production reaches record 1.265 billion metric tons.

Trump’s tariff deadline has passed: How it’s affecting agricultural commodity trade, country by country

Trump’s August 1 tariff deadline has passed. Explore how agricultural exports are affected, with a country-by-country breakdown.

Tracking Trump’s US agri-commodity trade tariffs

US President Donald Trump is set to implement taxes as high as 50% on agricultural imports unless deals can be negotiated before August 1.

Arabica coffee futures climb 17 cents as tariff concerns and weather risks support prices

Arabica coffee futures climb to 301.35 cents/lb as Brazilian tariff deadline approaches and weather models show potential frost risks.

What a 50% US tariff could mean for Brazilian orange juice, coffee, and beef trade

US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose a 50% tax on all Brazilian exports could significantly affect global supply and pricing.

Biodiesel markets stabilize as "Big Beautiful Bill" reshapes North American feedstock trade

US biofuel law limits feedstocks to North America, challenging Chinese UCO and Brazilian tallow suppliers. LSGO rises $18/mt. Get Vesper's analysis.

Sugar prices rally on strong export demand despite soft fundamentals

New York raw sugar futures reversed recent declines as Brazilian vessel line-ups surged and refining demand improved, despite fundamentals still soft.

Vegetable oil markets rally as US biodiesel regulations and tariff threats reshape global trade

Palm oil and soybean oil rally as US limits biodiesel credits to North American feedstocks. Tariffs threaten global trade flows.

Biodiesel markets show mixed signals as geopolitical tensions support LSGO prices

FAME0 and UCOME rise on higher LSGO prices while RME drops on harvest pressure, with German HVO demand expected to quadruple this year.

Coffee futures hit annual low as Brazil frost concerns fade

Coffee futures drop to 303.75 cents/lb as Brazil frost concerns dissipate. Expert analysis reveals market dynamics and trading opportunities ahead.

Vegetable oil markets face pressure as Brent crude weakens and supply forecasts rise

Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed markets decline as Brent crude drops to $67.61/barrel. Get expert analysis on supply forecasts.

Biodiesel prices rebound after sharp decline on Middle East ceasefire

Week 26: biodiesel prices fell hard on the Israel-Iran ceasefire before recovering, as European regulatory changes reshaped HVO and UCO demand.

Oils sector calm for now: 3 key takeaways from Israel-Iran conflict so far

Oil prices climbed Wednesday after Trump announced China can continue buying Iranian oil. Analysis of Middle East tensions, vegetable oils volatility, biofuel m

Sugar prices under pressure as energy markets shift: What traders need to know

Sugar futures decline as oil prices drop and energy-ethanol dynamics shift. Get expert analysis on Brazil production and EU crop risks.

Global starch market outlook: June 2025 trade analysis shows price stability amid supply chain disruptions

Latest starch market intelligence reveals price stability across corn, potato, tapioca & wheat sectors despite trade disruptions.

Sugar prices hit four-year low as global surplus outlook emerges

Sugar futures hit lowest levels since 2021 as global surplus emerges. Brazil production recovers while European markets face mixed signals.

Cocoa markets remain volatile as ICCO widens global supply deficit to 494,000 tons

The ICCO widened its 2023/24 cocoa deficit estimate to 494,000 tons as mid-crop quality concerns persist in West Africa. Futures hit $10,974 before easing.

Sugar prices under pressure as global surplus expectations dominate market sentiment

Global sugar surplus drives prices lower despite European beet acreage cuts and drought stress. Raw sugar hits 17.2 cents/lb.

Cocoa market volatility continues: July futures swing nearly 19% in historic trading week

July cocoa futures hit $10,898 after 19% rally, then crashed 10%. Analysis reveals 20-year low liquidity, 3.5% demand drop, and West African supply gamble.

Sugar market analysis: Short-term volatility amidst long-term pressure

Vesper's latest sugar market analysis reveals short-term price support from Brazil's 53% production drop, while long-term bearish pressure looms from India and

Biodiesel markets shaken by Trump's new tariff policies

President Trump's economic emergency declaration introduces tariffs up to 54% on biodiesel imports, threatening Chinese UCO supply chains while creating opportu

Trade wars trigger global vegetable oil price decline: Vesper's week 10 market analysis

Trump's tariffs drive global veg oil prices down despite tight Malaysian palm stocks. Bearish outlook for palm oil through 2025.

Global Biodiesel and Vegetable Oil Markets See Mixed Movements Amid Political and Economic Developments

Explore the latest trends in biodiesel and vegetable oil markets, including price drops, regulatory updates, and global supply forecasts.

Vesper News: Global Oilseed Market Insights

Brazil's CONAB has nudged its soybean production forecast up to 166.21 million tonnes from 166.14 mmt, one of several shifts across the global oilseed market.

Global Sugar Market Update: Pressure on global prices persists

Pressure on global sugar prices, production declines in Brazil & Europe, and the outlook for 2025. Stay informed with Vesper.

European Sugar Market Update: Is This the Optimal Buying Window for European Buyers?

The JRC MARS bulletin revised the EU27 sugar beet yield forecast up to 75.4 tonnes per hectare, above September's 74.7 and the five-year average of 73.2.

U.S. Clean Fuels Tax Credit (45Z) Guidance Looms, Poised to Shake Up Vegetable Oil and Biofuel Markets

Explore the 45Z tax credit's impact on biofuels, U.S.-sourced feedstocks, and global vegetable oil trade as industry awaits new guidance.

Sugar Prices Remain Elevated as CS Brazil Falls Short: Discover How Future Forecasts Impact the Market

CS Brazil’s sugar production drops 16.21% YoY in September on unfavorable weather and lower cane crush, keeping global sugar prices elevated.

Lower Sugar Production Forecasts: Where Will Q1 2025 Supply Come From?

Brazil’s recent drought and fires have reduced sugar production estimates for the 2024/25 season to 39 MMT, down from 40 MMT.

Brazil's Sugar Industry Faces Pressure from Fire Outbreaks and Dry Conditions, Impacting Production and Prices

Brazil's sugar production faces challenges as fires and dry conditions hit the Center-South region, lowering output and driving up prices.

Vegetable Oils Prices Down as Brent Crude Oil Hits Lowest Level This Year

Brent crude oil hits a yearly low, leading to a decline in palm oil, soybean oil, and other vegetable oil benchmarks. View the latest prices.

Rising Global Sugar Deficit Forecasted

Discover how recent policy shifts in India and severe fires in Brazil are impacting sugar supply - forecasted deficit of 3.58 MMT for 2024/25.

Sugar Market Faces Uncertainty Amid Brazilian Drought and Fires: Brazilian Price Forecasts Signal Continued Volatility

The Brazilian sugar market faces uncertainty as fires and prolonged drought hit key sugarcane regions, with price forecasts pointing to continued volatility.

Is the Global Sugar Market on the Brink Amid Mounting Uncertainties?

Explore the latest insights on the global sugar market's volatility amid Brazil's drought and policy uncertainties in India.

How will India’s and Brazil’s Sugar Production Projections Impact Global Prices?

Learn how India’s and Brazil’s sugar production forecasts may impact global prices, and explore Vesper’s price forecast predictions.

Weather Drives Volatility in CBOT Soybean Prices: Discover Vesper's AI-Driven Price Forecasts for the Next Six Months

Discover how weather and geopolitical events are impacting CBOT soybean prices, and learn what Vesper's price forecasts are predicting.

Trump Sends CBOT Beans to Multiyear Lows?

Soybean prices in Chicago and Brazil hit multiyear lows despite the USDA lowering its projections for soybean production and ending stocks.

Early signs of trouble ahead in the global sugar market

The sugar market sees a price rise due to concerns over CS Brazil's 24/25 sugar output potentially falling short from early drought.

Soybean market update: fluctuating weather conditions and robust supply impact prices

Soybean Oil prices fall on CBOT and the Vesper Argentina Forward Price Index due to fluctuating U.S. weather conditions and strong LATAM supply.

Weather shifts ahead: La Niña’s impact on the global sugar market in 2024

La Niña is now more than 80% likely in the second half of 2024, bringing weather shifts that could cut Central-South Brazil rainfall and hit sugar output.

Accelerated Sugarcane Milling in Brazil and Its Global Impact

Discover how dry weather has accelerated sugarcane milling in Central-South Brazil, boosting sugar production and impacting global markets.

Global Sugar Market: Futures Slide as Supply Pressures Ease

Discover the latest trends in the raw sugar market, which saw a 4.6% decrease, now trading at 18.6 cents per pound, the lowest since November '22.

Global Palm Oil Prices Slide Amidst Recovering Production and Export Challenges

Explore the decline in global palm oil prices due to increased Malaysian production and reduced exports, impacting stock levels.

Prices plunge in the sugar market, as supply concern fades

Sugar prices fell sharply last week, returning to January 2023 levels as supply concerns. Get detailed insights on price changes here.

Prices for Biodiesel Fall due to High Crude Oil Supply

Understand the impact of high crude oil supplies, gasoil market shifts, and feedstock price declines on biodiesel markets.

The 24/25 CS Brazilian sugar cane crop season off to a robust start

Discover the latest updates on Brazil's sugar cane crop season. Despite weather challenges, production levels surged in March.

Diverging production outputs from global sugar markets

Dubai & Datagro Conferences reveal a lower cane availability in CS Brazil, while India's pivotal export changes affect global sugar prices.

Waiting for the Sugar Market to be Bullish in 2024

Sugar prices fell further after the March/24 contract expired with a 1.3 million tonne physical delivery of Brazilian sugar, unusually large off-season.

Exploring the Latest Sugar Market Sentiment: Outlook and Trends

Explore the latest sugar market outlook: global prices show minimal fluctuation as Brazil's Center-South early harvest approaches.

Global sugar prices: a temporary standstill or a prelude to change?

Global sugar prices staged a substantial recovery in January, driven by industrial buying, dry Brazilian weather, and lower 2024/25 output forecasts.

Palm Oil and Soybean Oil Prices: Latest Updates and Future Projections

Stay updated on palm oil and soybean oil prices, with insights from the latest MPOB report and impact of mineral oil price.

Vegetable oils, except palm oil, have weakened since the last report, influenced by the Red Sea crisis and a bumper soybean supply.

Vegetable oils other than palm have weakened on the Red Sea crisis and bumper soybean supply, while heavy Malaysian rain cut January palm oil output.

Soybean oil complex strengthens on massive new Phillips 66 renewable diesel plant

CBOT soybean oil settled up at $973/mt from $952/mt and soybeans recovered to $411/mt, with traders citing the new Phillips 66 renewable diesel plant.

Vegetable oil market update: Global palm oil and soybean oil prices up on bullish MPOB and neutral-slightly bullish WASDE report

Vegetable oil market update: Discover the impact of increased Brent Crude Oil prices and bullish MPOB and WASDE report on prices