German HVO100 has traded nationwide at a discount to B7 diesel since mid-August, for the first time. Total German HVO consumption is now estimated at around 2.41 million tonnes in 2026, against roughly 1.01 million in 2025. B7 has risen as much as 48% since the Iran war began, which is most of the reason the comparison flipped.
Two other things are supporting it. Double-counting for advanced biofuels has ended, and GHG quota revenues for advanced HVO have hit records, helped by low Rhine water levels restricting supply from ARA into Germany.
Prices themselves eased since last month’s report. FOB ARA biodiesel and HVO both came down, with sharp declines across all three HVO classes and FAME 0, while LSGO fell 7.7% and used cooking oil CIF ARA edged down 1.2%. Gasoil came under pressure after the US-Russia diesel deal announced on 9 October, while renewed tanker attacks around the Strait of Hormuz kept Brent above $105 a barrel.
On policy, the EPA proposed a full reallocation of the additional RINs tied to 2025 refinery exemptions, the US EIA cut its 2026 renewable diesel production forecast, and Brazil’s ANP replaced prior authorization for voluntary blending above the 15% mandate with a simple notification. Chinese used cooking oil exports over January to August ran 55.1% above last year.
Read the full biodiesel market analysis here.
