Market Outlook · Chocolate
Chocolate Q4 2026 Market Outlook
Every input behind a chocolate bar in one view. See where the recipe cost heads next.
Free monthly webinar
Sugar and cocoa market updates
A monthly market update with Justine Rayne White, Senior Market Insights Analyst for sugar and cocoa. Thirty minutes on what moved prices, what comes next, and what it means for your next purchase.
- Sugar and cocoa price developments
- Crop and weather outlook in the main origins
- Supply and demand
- Cocoa butter, mass and powder prices
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Put your questions to Justine in the chat. She answers them during the session.
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Amsterdam
16:30
Tue 20 Oct · CEST · 30 min
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London15:30
New York10:30
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Your host
Justine Rayne White
Senior Market Insights Analyst, Sugar and Cocoa
Justine covers sugar, cocoa and the chocolate supply chain at Vesper. Before joining, she spent over six years at commodity merchant ED&F Man in London, working across sugar, cross-commodity analysis, currency strategy and macroeconomic research, and two years at Danone as a Senior Commodity Market Analyst covering agricultural commodities and energy. She connects price moves to the buying decisions procurement teams face, from weather risk in West Africa to how energy and currency markets feed into chocolate costs.
Justine on LinkedInEpisode 1 · Tuesday 20 October
New cocoa ratios and powder prices, explained
The first session introduces Vesper's new cocoa prices for Europe and the US. Justine walks you through what each price covers, how it is put together, and where you find it in Vesper. Then she takes your questions.
In 30 minutes
- 1Where sugar and cocoa prices stand today
- 2The new cocoa ratios and powder VPIs, Europe and US
- 3How to use them in Vesper
- 4Your questions
What's new in Vesper
Europe
EXW EU
Ratios to ICE London cocoa
- Cocoa, butter
- Cocoa, mass
Cocoa powder VPIs, EUR/mt
- Cocoa, powder, 10-12%, natural
- Cocoa, powder, 10-12%, alkalized, light
- Cocoa, powder, 10-12%, alkalized, high
United States
FOB East Coast
Ratios to ICE US cocoa
- Cocoa, butter, natural, boxed
- Cocoa, butter, natural, liquid
- Cocoa, butter, deodorized, boxed
- Cocoa, mass, natural, liquid, liquor
Cocoa powder VPIs, USD/mt
- Cocoa, powder, natural
- Cocoa, powder, alkalized, light
- Cocoa, powder, alkalized, high
Updated every Friday
Both the European and the US prices are published weekly.
Built from market inputs
With contributions from major global chocolate companies.
In your Vesper account
Ratios in the new Cocoa Ratio widget. Powder VPIs in the Prices and Forward widgets.
How to read these prices
What is a VPI?
The Vesper Price Index is Vesper's own independent price benchmark. Market participants report the prices they trade at, we remove the outliers, and we publish in the same week the prices are collected. The cocoa VPIs follow the same method as every other VPI in Vesper.
How the VPI worksWhat is a cocoa ratio?
Processors price cocoa butter and cocoa mass as a multiple of the cocoa bean futures price. Multiply the ratio by the futures price and you have the product price. Vesper publishes the ratios against ICE London for Europe and ICE US for the US.
Free reports
Read the latest sugar and cocoa outlooks
Our Q4 2026 market outlooks for chocolate and EU sugar, free to download.
Market Outlook · Sugar
EU Sugar Q4 2026 Market Outlook
A shortfall Europe cannot import its way out of. See what has to happen to prices.
Previous sessions
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