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Sunflower oil, crude (EUWEST, FOB 6Ports)
1 Jun
Corn (CN, EXW)
1 Jun
Soybean (AR, FOB Up River)
30 May
Corn (EU, EXW)
29 May
Sugar, white (DE, DAP)
27 May
Soybean (BR, FOB Paranagua)
22 May
Soybean (BR, FOB Paranagua)
22 May
Electricity Spot (DE, EXW)
1 Apr
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Hey Alex! Where are we going today?
This is a live demo with 4 example questions. Start a free trial to ask about any commodity.
Done. I've built a cost model for the High Protein Bar sourced in Europe. WPI is priced off the EU VPI; for glycerin and cocoa butter I used West-EU series, and for maltitol the China partner price, since those were the closest matches on Vesper.
Raw Material Components
| # | Component | Share % | Type | Matched series |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WPI | 32.0% | product | WPI (EU - VPI, EXW) |
| 2 | Glycerin, refined | 13.0% | product | Glycerin, refined non-GMO 99.5% (West-EU - VPI) |
| 3 | Cocoa butter | 8.0% | product | Cocoa, butter (West-EU - Partner Price) |
| 4 | Maltitol | 13.0% | product | Maltitol, crystalline (CN - Partner Price) |
Non-Ingredient Costs
| Category | Share % |
|---|---|
| Labour | 22.4% |
| Energy | 1.9% |
| Other Overhead | 12.7% |
| Profit Margin | 9.8% |
Suggested name: High Protein Bar - Europe. Total modelled unit price is 19,889 EUR/MT. I've opened it in the Cost Model workspace so you can confirm, edit, or fine-tune the recipe.
Italy-specific butter isn't on Vesper, so I'm using Europe EXW butter as the closest proxy. The latest available prices are:
- Europe butter (EXW), VPI (weekly): 3,640 EUR/mt on 2026-06-17
- Europe butter (EXW), EEX (daily): 3,965 EUR/mt on 2026-06-23
They differ mainly because they come from different sources and sampling frequencies (weekly vs daily).
Butter, Europe, Prices (EUR/mt)
Data series used: Butter, Europe, Prices, EXW, VPI / EEX
Using Europe EXW WPC80 as the closest proxy for the UK, the market looks firm but no longer accelerating: prices should hold near late-June highs through late summer, then drift slightly lower into year-end.
What's driving it: high-protein demand is structural (bars, beverages, sports nutrition, GLP-1), availability feels tight even when trade is slower, and Europe stays expensive versus the US.
WPC 80, instant, Price forecast (EUR/mt)
Forecast (next 6 months): mid-Jul 28,614 → Aug peak 29,305 → Sep 29,104 → Oct 29,190 → Nov 28,725 → Dec 28,554 EUR/mt. Firm through late summer, then a gentle easing into year-end rather than a step-change lower.
Data series used: WPC 80, instant, Europe, Prices, EXW, VPI
SMP benchmarks are moving lower, so it's hard to justify a supplier-led increase right now. Three points you can use:
- Reference prices are down, not up. EU SMP fell from 2,930 to 2,590 EUR/mt (about 12%) in roughly six weeks; US SMP and Global Dairy Trade are easing too.
- EU inventories are building. Ending stocks rose from 121,613 (Dec) to 126,237 mt (Feb), which usually caps near-term upside.
- Supply isn't tight. Global SMP production jumped from 196,261 to 242,049 mt month-on-month.
SMP, food, Prices (EUR/mt)
Data series used: SMP, food, Europe / US / Global, Prices, Ending Stocks, Production
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Prices
Forecast prices
Historical accuracy
Based on the performance of the last 2 years.
Supply and Demand
| 1,000 MT | Supply | Production | Import | Demand | Export | Disappearance | Ending stock | Stock change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YOY | 9.17% | 9.11% | 60.55% | 9.17% | 9.11% | 10.34% | — | — |
| 2025 | 212.09 | 211.7 | 0.38 | 212.09 | 201.12 | 10.97 | — | — |
| 2024 | 194.27 | 194.03 | 0.24 | 194.27 | 184.33 | 9.94 | — | — |
| 2023 | 228.79 | 228.51 | 0.27 | 228.79 | 217.09 | 11.7 | — | — |
| 2022 | 218.94 | 218.75 | 0.19 | 218.94 | 207.81 | 11.13 | — | — |
| 2021 | 188.31 | 188.15 | 0.17 | 188.31 | 178.74 | 9.57 | — | — |
SMP, food, EU · VPI, EXW
Simplified demoCurrent market
Updated on Friday, May 27
EU SMP has rallied hard off the winter lows, with the primary Vesper Price Index at €2,750/MT on 2026-06-03 after peaking near €2,930/MT in May.
The move is driven by extreme US nonfat dry milk tightness and firm global powder values, while heavy European milk and SMP output cap the upside. The next few quarters look less bullish than Q2, but not weak unless US supply rebuilds.
Bulls
- The US SMP premium remains extreme, keeping export demand pointed toward Europe.
- Global Dairy Trade SMP is holding near recent highs, supporting EU price ideas.
Bears
- Europe has plenty of SMP, with March EU-27 production at 152,994 MT.
- Rising US NFDM output can narrow the premium supporting EU SMP exports.
Latest price
2,750
Jun 3, 26'
WOW
1.79%
May 27–Jun 3, 26'
MOM
3.85%
May 3–Jun 3, 26'
QOQ
5.05%
Mar 3–Jun 3, 26'
YOY
15.05%
Jun 3, 25'–Jun 3, 26'
Quarterly outlook
Ending firmer than it started, but the early-May peak has already cooled. EU SMP is supported by export pull from the record US nonfat dry milk premium, while high European milk and SMP production cap the rally.
Bulls
- US SMP remains far above Europe, pulling export demand toward EU-origin powder.
- Global Dairy Trade SMP is holding near recent highs, backing firmer EU export values.
- Oceania SMP is still priced above Europe, leaving EU powder competitive into export tenders.
Bears
- Europe 27 SMP production surged into March, keeping supply pressure heavy through the Q2 flush.
- EU VPI slipped from its May peak to €2,750/MT, showing the rally is losing some spot momentum.
Should trade mixed to slightly softer from the Q2 peak area. Export demand remains the support, but buyer coverage and rising US production risk taking some heat out of the global powder market.
Bulls
- EU SMP enters Q3 with a strong trend base after a sharp first-half recovery.
- New Zealand GDT C2 remains above Europe, keeping EU SMP attractive on relative value.
- Firm protein demand keeps a floor under powder values through the summer.
Bears
- The Vesper forecast points only modestly higher into mid-year, implying limited upside.
- Rising US production risk could take heat out of the global powder market.
- Improving buyer coverage reduces the urgency to chase fresh offers.
Should be more two-sided. European seasonal milk declines can support prices, but expected Oceania supply recovery and any narrowing in the US premium would make the market heavier than Q2.
Bulls
- European dairy prices are expected to recover more visibly into Q4 as production dips.
- EU drying capacity is already running full, limiting quick supply response to extra demand.
- Singapore SGX SMP remains above EU spot levels, pointing to continued Asian value support.
Bears
- Oceania is expected to produce a lot of milk powder again in Q4.
- Global SMP production has shown strong late-year seasonality, adding supply risk into Q4.
Starts from a market that should be less squeezed than Q2 2026, but not back to oversupply. The expected direction is flat to slightly lower unless US tightness persists longer or protein demand keeps pulling milk solids away from commodity powder.
Bulls
- A full return to weak oversupply is seen as unlikely, keeping downside contained.
- Protein-rich nutrition demand keeps a supportive floor under dairy powder consumption.
- Indian buffalo SMP substitute prices remain steady, giving little sign of aggressive substitute pressure.
Bears
- High European milk and cheap skimmed milk concentrate keep SMP production risk elevated.
- German SMP output is already high, showing Europe can bring meaningful volume when milk is available.
No cost model yet
Build a recipe-based model to track and forecast your unit price.
Total unit price
19,889 EUR/MT
SMP, food, EU · VPI, EXW
Current market
Updated on Friday, May 27
EU SMP has rallied hard off the winter lows, with the primary Vesper Price Index at €2,750/MT on 2026-06-03 after peaking near €2,930/MT in May.
The move is driven by extreme US nonfat dry milk tightness and firm global powder values, while heavy European milk and SMP output cap the upside. The next few quarters look less bullish than Q2, but not weak unless US supply rebuilds.
Bulls
- The US SMP premium remains extreme, keeping export demand pointed toward Europe.
- Global Dairy Trade SMP is holding near recent highs, supporting EU price ideas.
Bears
- Europe has plenty of SMP, with March EU-27 production at 152,994 MT.
- Rising US NFDM output can narrow the premium supporting EU SMP exports.
Latest price
2,750
Jun 3, 26'
WOW
1.79%
May 27–Jun 3, 26'
MOM
3.85%
May 3–Jun 3, 26'
QOQ
5.05%
Mar 3–Jun 3, 26'
YOY
15.05%
Jun 3, 25'–Jun 3, 26'
New cost model
Recipe
Add each ingredient and its share of the unit weight.
Price breakdown
How much of the unit price comes from each component.
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FAQ
Frequently Asked Questions
Does Vesper utilize AI in their solutions?
Yes, Vesper leverages AI technology in several key areas of our platform. Our AI models power price forecasting with 95%+ directional accuracy for 30-day predictions, analyze millions of data points to identify optimal buying windows, and automatically aggregate market intelligence from diverse sources. The AI works alongside our in-house analysts to provide more accurate insights than either could deliver alone, helping procurement teams make data-driven timing decisions with greater confidence.
What is commodity procurement software?
Commodity procurement software is a specialized platform that helps businesses plan, execute, and track purchases of raw materials and commodities. Unlike general procurement tools, it includes market intelligence, price forecasting, and commodity-specific features to help procurement teams secure better deals in volatile markets.
How does commodity intelligence help reduce procurement costs?
Commodity intelligence provides market forecasting, price benchmarks, and timing insights that help you buy during favorable market conditions. Our customers typically see 15–30% cost reductions by avoiding panic purchases and timing their buys strategically using AI-powered market analysis.
What's the difference between CTRM and commodity procurement software?
CTRM (Commodity Trading and Risk Management) systems focus on trading operations and financial risk management for commodity traders. Commodity procurement software like Vesper focuses on the purchasing workflow for end-users who need to buy raw materials for production, with emphasis on sourcing, approval processes, and supplier negotiations.
How accurate are commodity price forecasts?
Our AI models combined with proprietary analyst research achieve 95%+ directional accuracy for 30-day price movements across major commodity categories. While no forecast is perfect, our customers use these insights to make more informed timing decisions and reduce exposure to unfavorable price swings.
Can Vesper integrate with existing ERP systems?
Yes, Vesper integrates with major ERP systems including SAP, Oracle, and Microsoft Dynamics through our APIs and native Excel plugin. This allows you to sync purchase data, track performance metrics, and maintain your existing approval workflows while adding commodity intelligence capabilities.
What commodities does Vesper cover?
Vesper provides intelligence and pricing data for agricultural commodities (grains, oils, dairy), food ingredients, packaging materials, energy products, and industrial materials commonly used by FMCG companies. Our coverage spans global markets with particular strength in North American and European supply chains.
How long does implementation typically take?
Most customers are up and running within 1–4 weeks. Implementation includes data integration, user training, and configuration of your specific commodity categories and suppliers. Our customer success team provides hands-on support throughout the onboarding process.
Is Vesper suitable for small to medium-sized companies?
Absolutely. While commodity intelligence was traditionally only available to large corporations, Vesper makes these capabilities accessible to companies of all sizes. Our flexible pricing and scalable platform work for procurement teams managing $1M to $1B+ in annual commodity spend.
What kind of ROI can we expect from commodity procurement software?
Customers typically see ROI within 3–6 months through cost savings from better timing, improved supplier negotiations, and reduced manual processes. The average customer saves 15–30% on commodity costs and recovers 10+ hours per week previously spent on market research and approval documentation.