The 24/25 CS Brazilian sugar cane crop season is off to a robust start, despite facing potential setbacks from recent heavy rainfall across numerous production areas. Remarkably, sugar production in the first half of March soared, registering a more than 300% increase compared to the same timeframe last year, introducing a bearish tone to the market.

In the first half of March UNICA’s production number details a cane crush of 2.22 MMT (+267% YoY), with and TRS of 109.9 kg/TC (+9.34% YoY), and a sugar mix of 27.6% (+0.8pp YoY), resulting in sugar production of 64 thousand tonnes (+313.2% YoY) and 0.36 Mcbm of ethanol (+38.6% YoY). The accumulated production from April/23 to mid-March/24 is now at 649.4 MMT (+19% YoY), TRS at 139.4 kg/TC (-1.2% YoY), sugar mix at 48.96% (+3pp YoY), totaling a sugar production 25.8% above the same period of the last crop at 42.24 MMT, and ethanol 15.9% higher compared to last year at 33.1 Mcbm. During the first half of March, 24 mills started the 24/25 crop, summing so far 40 mills in operation. In the same period of the last year, only 23 mills were in operation.

Looking ahead, should the weather conditions improve, it is anticipated that additional (to be exact 39) mills will commence operations in the latter half of the month, further boosting production levels that have already seen a significant uptick since early March.

However, the narrative of sugar’s market dynamics remains predictably tied to the logistical framework in Brazil’s Centre-South region, where any logistical disruptions, especially those caused by weather, can lead to immediate price fluctuations. Between November and February, Brazil achieved a new export record by delivering 13.6 MMT of sugar to the global market, underscoring its critical role in the international sugar supply chain. This record-setting performance not only reaffirms Brazil’s dominance in the sugar market but also its vulnerability to logistical and climatic challenges that can significantly influence sugar prices.

Illustrating this, the chart below compares the volume exported with the last year and years before. From November through February, each month set a new record for sugar shipments from CS Brazil, surpassing previous highs not just marginally but substantially.

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