Coffee futures fell 13.7 cents this week on the most active July contract to $2.60 a pound, the lowest level since November 2024, according to Sucafina. The market had looked set to hold a 265-275 cent range early in the week before taking another wave lower on Monday and sliding to an almost two-year low.
The pressure is coming from Brazil, where harvesting is accelerating and differentials for Brazilian Arabicas are steadily dropping as more coffee comes in. Brazil continues to lose market share to washed Arabicas from Central America and natural Arabicas from Ethiopia, with the gap increasingly filled by Robusta. Robusta exports for the first five months of 2026 reached 28.8 million bags, four million more than the same period in 2025.
What makes that shift notable is that destination stocks are drawing down on a net basis rather than building, which points to rapidly rising Robusta usage worldwide. Blending Robusta with higher-quality Arabica to substitute for Brazil naturals is one of the oldest tricks in the trade, and the analysis describes it being adopted at large scale, given the persistent price gap between Arabica and Robusta.
The effect is a ballooning inventory of high-priced Brazilian naturals facing an increasingly disinterested buyer. The analysis expects Brazilian farmers will eventually have to lower prices to bring buyers back, or hold a near-record crop in a falling market, though it notes they still have time for now. Sucafina’s near-term view is for the market to stabilise in a new range of 255 to 265 cents a pound.