Coffee futures fell again last week, with the most active July contract down 13.3 cents to 245.9 US cents/lb, according to coffee analysis from Sucafina. Open interest is rolling from July into September as passive investors move their positions forward.
The decline ran past where the market was expected to settle. New sellers came out of the speculative community, lifting non-commercial gross shorts to 31,769 lots. That is the largest speculative short position since October 2023, when futures traded near 167 cents/lb. The timing is notable: speculators are building bearish bets just as Brazil’s harvest approaches and Arabica stocks sit at their tightest point.
Farmers, by contrast, remain lightly positioned, sitting around 14,000 lots below average and well under where they were the last time a crop this size was about to be harvested. History shows farmers rarely add coverage in a falling market. By trying to front-run those flows, Sucafina suggests the speculative shorts may have left themselves exposed at a vulnerable moment. Any delay or quality issue in Brazil’s harvest could amplify a price move from here.
On that read, Sucafina expects the market to rebound next week toward a 255 to 265 cent range.