December coffee futures fell 8.5 cents week on week to $3.088/lb, according to Sucafina’s latest market report, as the contract’s roll from September to December passed with little drama, the spread between the two narrowing to 15 cents. Sucafina reads that as a sign of limited concern over ICE-certified stocks, which sit just above 250,000 bags, a low level by historical standards. With the roll behind it, liquidity in the September contract will thin out fast, and Sucafina is advising roasters to fix any outstanding September positions by the end of this week.
The certified-stock drawdown itself, per Sucafina, comes down to a pricing mismatch rather than a shortage: coffee that qualifies for ICE delivery currently costs more than replacement-grade coffee out of Honduras and Peru, by at least 30 cents a pound, which pulls supply away from exchange stock toward cheaper alternatives instead.
Little relief looks likely from Brazil’s new crop. Sucafina’s own quality checks on coffee arriving from Brazilian farms found both cup quality and screen sizes falling short of expectations for a harvest this large, prompting the firm to trim its estimates for both Arabica and Conilon output in the 2026/27 season. That doesn’t change the broader picture, Brazil is still on track for a record crop overall, but the specific lots needed to rebuild ICE-certified stock are exactly the ones coming in weaker this year. Farmers are also sitting on unusually large carryover from last season, which adds to overall availability without helping the shortfall, since aging, stale-cup inventory isn’t what exchanges or roasters are looking for.
Sucafina expects the market to keep pushing higher through the week, with the December contract heading toward 325 cents.
This news article is part of a broader market analysis drawing on Sucafina’s coffee report. For the full market analysis, visit: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/3305
