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Poultry week 28: heat losses in Europe, record exports from Brazil

A record heatwave cut European poultry supply while Spain's Newcastle Disease cases and Brazil trade tensions add risk. Vesper's week 28 poultry view.

Jorn Hansen
Jorn Hansen Protein & Soft Commodities Analyst
10 July 2026 1 min read

Europe’s poultry sector is absorbing the same heatwave hitting the rest of the food chain. The rare omega pattern that parked hot air over the continent pushed temperatures past 40°C in central Europe and toward the mid-40s in parts of France. Both France and the UK report bird losses in the hundreds of thousands, alongside early culls and reduced slaughter weights during peak summer demand.

In the Netherlands and Belgium, the recovery in free-market broiler quotations has stalled. Slaughterhouses say consumption is solid but supply is the constraint: slaughter weights are below seasonal norms on heat-slowed growth, while imports from Eastern Europe and South America keep competition in the meat market high. Flat pricing looks like the best achievable outcome heading into the traditional July slowdown.

Spain adds a disease layer. Five new Newcastle Disease cases have been reported in H2 2026, and China has historically restricted Spanish poultry over disease concerns, so there is a material risk of a new import ban. That uncertainty is already showing in Spanish broiler prices, which have declined in recent weeks while markets like Poland firm.

Brazil, meanwhile, posted its strongest export first half on record: volumes up 12.9% year-on-year, revenue up 17%, and June shipments at 482,800 tonnes. But prices have started easing since news of a potential export ban to Europe, and the market is waiting for signs of a resolution.

Vesper’s full poultry analysis covers the price moves market by market and the outlook for a sector caught between tightening supply and trade risk.

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