The European Commission has confirmed that Brazil will not be permitted to export poultry meat and animal products to the EU from 3 September 2026. The reason: Brazil failed to appear on the EU’s updated list of third countries compliant with antimicrobial use requirements. For European buyers, the scale of the dependency matters. Brazil is the EU’s single largest source of poultry imports.
The procedural situation makes early resolution difficult. Brazil has submitted compliance protocols, sent a ministerial delegation to Brussels, and is lobbying for an extraordinary session of the EU authorisation body. But the next scheduled meeting falls in October, after the ban takes effect. A fix before September requires an extraordinary session that has not been confirmed.
The timing sharpens the stakes. The ban arrives shortly after the Mercosur deal entered into force, and it closely mirrors the HPAI-driven export ban of September 2025, which triggered material European price increases. Brazil’s May export volumes are running above both April and the same period last year, pointing to front-loading ahead of the deadline.
Disease pressure builds across Poland and beyond
The supply picture is compounded by disease. Poland has recorded 142 HPAI outbreaks in 2026 affecting approximately 9.7 million commercial birds, alongside 49 Newcastle Disease outbreaks year-to-date. Total culls across Poland from both diseases have reached more than 13.3 million birds. Newcastle Disease has spread further, with outbreaks confirmed in Spain’s Valencia region and Latvia.
In the Netherlands, 51 locations have been affected and 2.25 million birds culled since October 2025. The Dutch Cabinet is advancing a mandatory HPAI vaccination programme for laying hens, following field trial results showing 0% mortality in doubly-vaccinated flocks and significantly reduced viral shedding. An international working group including the US, Canada, France, the UK, the European Commission, and WOAH is coordinating trade acceptance of products from vaccinated birds. The programme will not provide supply relief this season.
Q3 outlook points higher
Summer demand seasonality is supportive, Polish production remains disease-constrained, and the Netherlands vaccination rollout will take time to show up in supply figures. The Brazil ban is the dominant risk variable. If it takes effect without resolution, European buyers face a repeat of the 2025 supply disruption from Brazil, but without a clear recovery path in sight.
The full Vesper poultry report covers the Brazil compliance timeline, Dutch vaccination rollout, and the supply picture across key EU production markets: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/3038