Canada news — Vesper

Sunflower oil drops ahead of Abu Dhabi talks on the Black Sea

Sunflower oil fell about 3% on the week after a Russia, Ukraine and US meeting was confirmed for Abu Dhabi, while Ukraine's exports have roughly halved.

Rapeseed oil takes the lead while sunflower oil's rally stalls

Rapeseed oil rose about 5% on the week as China bought close to 1 million tonnes of Australian canola, while sunflower oil's rally paused on Black Sea talks.

US egg exports are on track for their best year since 2021

US table egg exports are running 36% ahead of 2025, with Mexico up 41%, but shell egg production grew 8% in the third quarter, faster than exports can absorb.

US cheese blocks slide while stocks build

CME cheese blocks are 23.7% below a year ago and US stocks are building. See where US cheese prices head next in our free US Dairy Q4 2026 outlook.

France's corn crop hits a record low condition rating

Only 23% of the French corn crop is rated good or excellent, the lowest in FranceAgriMer's records, while grain prices drifted lower on Black Sea hopes.

US cage-free egg supply looks to have peaked below half the flock

Cage-free layer inventories hit a record 150.7 million in August, but growth now trails the total flock and LEAP sees the segment near saturation.

Indonesia confirms B50; Vesper sees 1 mmt of extra demand

Full B50 would lift palm oil going into Indonesian biofuels by 2.4 million tonnes. Vesper's estimate for growth beyond B40 without the full step is 1 million.

Where the new US-Canada dairy tariffs actually bite

New US and Canadian dairy tariffs cover powders, whey and MPC, but the exposure is uneven. Here is where the duties actually reach trade flows on both sides.

Soybean oil drops on EPA biofuel doubts; rapeseed follows

CBOT soybean oil fell nearly 6% on rumors the EPA could ease biofuel blending rules, and rapeseed followed it lower as a US-Canada trade dispute added pressure.

Whey protein's climb stalls before Q4 contracting

Reformulation has cut WPC80 demand going into Q4, stalling the climb, while MPC 85, lactose and whey permeate tighten across Europe and the US.

Vegetable oils diverge as Brent crude retreats

Palm and soybean oil fell as Brent crude retreated below $86 a barrel, while sunflower oil rose on continued Black Sea port disruption and slow crushing.

Brazil loses EU poultry access from September; the authorisation body meets too late to fix it

The European Commission has confirmed Brazil cannot export poultry meat to the EU from 3 September 2026, after missing the antimicrobial compliance list.

Rapeseed market firms after Germany adopts RED III

MATIF rapeseed rose to EUR 552/mt from EUR 508/mt after Germany adopted RED III, with tight EU stocks, strong crush and firmer crude oil all lending support.

Wheat and corn prices fall on lower crude and higher supply estimates

Euronext milling wheat dropped to EUR 194/mt from EUR 205/mt and French wheat flour to EUR 309/mt, after a broadly bearish April WASDE report.

Vegetable oils slip lower on ceasefire optimism and weaker crude

BMD crude palm oil fell to $1,120/mt from $1,176/mt and CBOT soybean oil to 66.5 US cents/lb from 69.95, as ceasefire optimism and weaker crude weighed.

US broiler exports slip in early 2026 with domestic dark meat demand providing support

US broiler exports started 2026 muted, with February shipments just under 524 million pounds, 4.3% below last year and cumulative volumes down 1.1%.

Vegetable oils rebound on crude surge and biofuel policy shifts

Palm and soybean oil led a broad vegetable oil recovery on firmer Brent and new biofuel policy in the US and Indonesia, while coconut oil moved the other way.

Wheat futures rally, but cash markets tell a different story

Wheat futures have pushed higher, but a growing disconnect with cash markets points to a correction, while barley exports run at multi-year highs.

US dairy exports hit records as American product finds new markets worldwide

US butterfat exports are up 166% year on year and cheese exports have hit all-time highs, driven largely by competitive American pricing on global markets.

Grain prices rise on Middle East conflict, with wheat, corn and soybeans all moving higher

Grain markets rose over two weeks with the Middle East conflict the main driver, as Brent crude gained $8.50 to $81.40 a barrel and lifted wheat and corn.

India's soybean oil duty cut set to reshape vegetable oil import dynamics

India's planned reduction in soybean oil import duties under US trade agreement expected to reshape procurement patterns and intensify competition across palm,

Soybean prices jump on China trade talks and U.S. crush demand

CBOT soybeans surged to 1,115 cents a bushel from 1,068 on US-China trade progress, new 45Z biofuel rules and strong December domestic crush demand.

U.S. Treasury's 45Z guidance tilts biofuel policy toward North American crop oils

New 45Z guidance restricts eligible fuels to US, Canadian and Mexican feedstocks and removes ILUC penalties, lending support to CBOT soybean oil prices.

Trump's tariff plans create tight timeline for US importers

Trump has announced 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada plus 10% on China from January 20th, leaving US importers a tight six-week window to prepare.

Chocolate makers adjust recipes as cocoa costs remain elevated

High cocoa prices are driving recipe changes across the industry, with rice, oats and sunflower seeds replacing cocoa and some bars losing the chocolate label.

Record global grain production pressures prices across wheat, corn and barley markets

Global grain markets face downward pressure as record wheat, corn and barley production forecasts overwhelm seasonal patterns.

Ukrainian rapeseed export delays drive European oil prices higher

MATIF rapeseed rose EUR 1/mt to EUR 471/mt and crude rapeseed oil FOB Dutch Mill to EUR 1,110/mt, as Ukrainian export delays limit harvest-period supply.

Rapeseed oil prices increase on Ukrainian export disruptions and strong rival oils

Rapeseed oil rose EUR 20/mt to EUR 1,081/mt as unclear Ukrainian export mechanisms and rival vegetable oil strength provide support.

Rapeseed supply expands while sunflower markets tighten amid harvest delays

Ukrainian sunflower crop drops to 13.56 mmt while rapeseed forecasts rise 700k mt in Australia. Palm oil gains $20/mt on Malaysian supply concerns. Analysis.

Canadian canola exports to EU face certification bottleneck while trade tensions with China persist

Canadian canola exports to EU may be capped at 2-4 MMT due to biodiesel certification requirements, forcing exporters to redirect volumes.

Trump tariffs begin in India, with rice, dairy, and tea amongst products impacted

US tariffs of 50% on most imports from India kick in today, affecting key commodities like basmati rice, spices, pulses, tea and dairy.

China UCO exports rise as US policy limits biodiesel feedstock imports

Chinese UCO exports jumped to 262,000 mt in June while US imports plummeted to 93,524 mt following new biofuel credit policies.

Trump’s tariff deadline has passed: How it’s affecting agricultural commodity trade, country by country

Trump’s August 1 tariff deadline has passed. Explore how agricultural exports are affected, with a country-by-country breakdown.

Tracking Trump’s US agri-commodity trade tariffs

US President Donald Trump is set to implement taxes as high as 50% on agricultural imports unless deals can be negotiated before August 1.

August 1 dairy tariffs set to reshape US import markets as European butter hits €7,000

With August 1 approaching, dairy tariff increases are building market tension as European butter reaches €7,000/mt and US whey faces export uncertainty.

Biodiesel markets stabilize as "Big Beautiful Bill" reshapes North American feedstock trade

US biofuel law limits feedstocks to North America, challenging Chinese UCO and Brazilian tallow suppliers. LSGO rises $18/mt. Get Vesper's analysis.

Vegetable oil markets rally as US biodiesel regulations and tariff threats reshape global trade

Palm oil and soybean oil rally as US limits biodiesel credits to North American feedstocks. Tariffs threaten global trade flows.

Biodiesel markets show mixed signals as geopolitical tensions support LSGO prices

FAME0 and UCOME rise on higher LSGO prices while RME drops on harvest pressure, with German HVO demand expected to quadruple this year.

Biodiesel markets caught in regulatory whirlwind as policy uncertainty deepens

Washington's tariff reversals create biodiesel market paralysis. Congressional incentives pending while feedstock flows shift.

Biodiesel markets face mixed pressures as feedstock dynamics shift in late May 2025

European biodiesel prices diverge in late May 2025 as FOB ARA UCOME slips, UCO imports surge 17% and RME strengthens on rapeseed supply concerns.

Global vegetable oil markets disrupted by Trump's 10-50% tariff policy: Palm, Soy, Rapeseed, and Sunflower Oil impacts

Trump's 10 to 50% tariffs are rippling through global vegetable oil markets. What palm, soybean, rapeseed and sunflower oil buyers need to know right now.

Canola Market Faces Pressure: MATIF Rapeseed and ICE Canola Prices Tumble Amid China's Tariff Implementation

MATIF rapeseed and ICE canola prices tumble as China imposes 100% tariff on Canadian canola products. European markets brace for influx while Australia raises p

Trade wars trigger global vegetable oil price decline: Vesper's week 10 market analysis

Trump's tariffs drive global veg oil prices down despite tight Malaysian palm stocks. Bearish outlook for palm oil through 2025.

Canadian Canola Shipments Rise Amid Chinese Buyers' Uncertainty Over Antidumping Investigation

Canadian canola shipments surge amid Chinese antidumping concerns, as MATIF rapeseed prices rise and ICE Canola holds steady. Explore the market impact.

Vegetable Oils Prices Down as Brent Crude Oil Hits Lowest Level This Year

Brent crude oil hits a yearly low, leading to a decline in palm oil, soybean oil, and other vegetable oil benchmarks. View the latest prices.

Global production levels for vegetable oils are predicted to reach a record level

Expected price developments for palm, soybean, rapeseed and sunflower oil in the 22/23 crop year, as global vegetable oil output heads for a record level.

Report shows renewable diesel demand could impact US soybean exports

Rising US renewable diesel demand could halt the country's soybean exports by 2030, according to CoBank research reported by The Western Producer.

Canada: CDC adds 2.5% to milk price from Sept 1

The Canadian Dairy Commission has agreed a 2.5% farmgate price increase from 1 September, less than expected after criticism of its consultative process.

Vegetable Oils Highlights

Farmers control fertiliser and much else, but never the weather, and that dependence is once again shaping the outlook across vegetable oil markets.