European rapeseed prices climbed this week, supported by Germany’s adoption of Renewable Energy Directive III (RED III) alongside tight EU stocks, strong crush volumes and renewed strength in crude oil markets.
MATIF rapeseed (May contract) rose to EUR 552/mt from EUR 508/mt the previous week, while the August contract increased to EUR 509/mt from EUR 492/mt. The June contract for crude rapeseed oil (FOB Dutch Mill) also moved higher, reaching EUR 1,155/mt from EUR 1,127/mt.
On 23 April 2026, the German Bundestag adopted RED III, which abolishes double counting for biodiesel and bans palm waste-derived fuels from 2027. The measure is expected to increase physical demand for rapeseed oil within the European biofuel sector.
The policy shift adds to an already supportive supply backdrop. European rapeseed crush is increasing while seed imports remain slower this season, partly reflecting reduced flows from Ukraine. Total rapeseed oil supply this season (crush plus imports) stands at 8.7 million tonnes versus a multi-year average of 8.3 million tonnes. However, this level partly reflects increased oil imports and a drawdown of stocks. EU rapeseed stocks now sit at 4.28 million tonnes against a multi-year average of 5.5 million tonnes, with one source describing a market that “feels a shortage of seeds toward the end of the season.”
In North America, market participants report strong demand for Canadian canola for biofuel production, with Cargill’s Regina canola crushing plant (capacity 1 million tonnes per year) now operational.
Forecasts from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service are tempering the upside. The USDA attaché in Ottawa projects Canada’s 2026/27 canola crop at 20.11 million tonnes, above Statistics Canada’s estimate of 19.2 million tonnes. Ending stocks projections also diverge significantly, with the attaché at 2.63 million tonnes versus StatCan at 1.06 million tonnes.
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