Brent crude (July) closed the week at $104/barrel, down from $114 the prior week and recovered from a $100 low reached on signs of progress in Iran-US peace negotiations. Those signals reversed on Monday, with President Trump calling Iran’s proposal unacceptable and ceasefire talks “on life support.” The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Vegetable oils continue to track Brent more closely than their own balance sheets.

BMD crude palm oil eased to $1,144/mt from $1,151/mt, with lower Brent and a bearish Malaysian balance weighing on price. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board confirmed April production at 1.630 mmt, up 18.4% month-on-month, with stocks rising to 2.309 mmt. Year-to-date Malaysian production is running 6.6% above the same period last year. Early May data is mixed: SPPOMA reports production for May 1-10 down 24.8% on the prior month, while a surveyor told Vesper shipments in the same window rose 8.5%.

CBOT soybean oil fell to 74.68 cents/lb from last week’s record high of 78.4 cents, mostly on the Brent move. Soybeans held at 1,200 cents/bu, well above March-April levels. The next catalyst is the Trump-Xi meeting on May 14-15, with markets watching for any Chinese commitment to buy US soybeans. Global soybean production for 2026/27 is forecast at 441 mmt, up 13 mmt, as acreage shifts away from corn on high fertilizer costs.

MATIF rapeseed slipped to EUR 515/mt from a peak of EUR 528, with the fundamental picture split. Canadian canola stocks are up 27.4% year-on-year to 10 mmt on record 2025 production and weak exports, and Western Australia’s canola area is set to rise 33% to a record 2.28 million ha. EU stocks look tighter, though, with July-April rapeseed imports at 5.96 mmt versus 4.26 mmt the prior year and crush margins reportedly attractive.

Sunflower oil (FOB 6 Ports) eased alongside other oils. Argentina’s harvest is now essentially complete at a record 6.6 mmt per the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, and January-April Argentine exports reached 589,000 mt versus 358,000 mt the year before, loosening the global supply picture.

What to watch into Q3

The unifying caveat across all four oils is that Middle East headlines remain the near-term driver. Vesper’s analyst view is consistent on Q2: if the conflict ends this quarter, prices ease but are unlikely to fully return to pre-conflict levels; if it continues, the risk of prolonged disruption rises.

Into Q3, the picture splits. Palm carries the most directional bullish risk: Indonesia’s B50 mandate begins on 1 July and could add 3.1 mmt to domestic consumption this year, with Malaysia lifting its blending rate to B15 from June (around 334,000 mt). Soy oil is sideways to firm, with the US biodiesel feedstock market tight. Rapeseed faces harvest pressure on a large global crop, and sunflower should weaken on expanding Black Sea acreage and strong Argentine supply.


For the full vegetable oil market analysis, visit: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/2981