Wheat: bearish WASDE, US crop conditions deteriorating

Euronext milling wheat dropped to EUR 194/mt from EUR 205/mt two weeks ago. Vesper’s French wheat flour calculation (12.5%) fell to EUR 309/mt from EUR 320/mt over the same period.

The April WASDE was broadly bearish: global production for 2025/26 was raised by 2 million mt to 844.2 million mt, while global consumption was cut by 4.7 million mt to 820.1 million mt. Global ending stocks were revised sharply higher by 6.2 million mt to 283.1 million mt, well above market expectations.

CBOT soft red winter wheat declined from 598 US cents per bushel before rebounding to 594 cents, supported by deteriorating US crop conditions and weather concerns. The USDA’s good/excellent rating fell to 34%, down from 47% a year earlier and the five-year average of 43%, with below-expected rainfall and continued dry forecasts adding to crop stress.

Corn: Argentina on course for record crop

Euronext corn eased to EUR 205/mt from EUR 207/mt two weeks ago. The April WASDE raised global corn production for 2025/26 by 3.6 million mt to 1,301.1 million mt, with ending stocks revised up by 2.1 million mt to 294.8 million mt, near the upper end of market expectations.

Argentina’s Rosario Exchange raised its 2025/26 crop forecast to a record 67 million mt from 62 million mt, citing a larger planted area than previously expected. Brazil’s Conab also lifted its estimate to 139.57 million mt from 138.27 million mt.

Barley: strong current season, tighter 2026/27 ahead

The IGC barley sub-index held broadly flat. EU barley exports in the 2025/26 marketing year are up 89% year-on-year to 7.65 million mt as of April 5, with Saudi Arabia, China, and Algeria as the main destinations.

However, the 2026/27 production outlook is tightening meaningfully. The IGC projects global barley output falling to 146.1 million mt from the current record of 154.9 million mt. Australia’s crop is forecast to drop to around 13.8–14.1 million mt from 16.3 million mt last year, while Canada may see output decline to 8.5 million mt from 9.7 million mt and EU production is expected to fall from 55.7 to 52.5 million mt.

Soybeans: Italy’s large soymeal purchase and Trump–Xi meeting in focus

CBOT soybean prices are broadly rangebound at 1,167 US cents per bushel, caught between weaker soy oil and stronger soymeal. CBOT soymeal rose to USD 334/short ton from USD 318/short ton two weeks ago, after the USDA confirmed a private sale of 100,000 metric tons of US soymeal to Italy, described as that country’s largest single purchase since at least 2019. A planned meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in May is seen as the most closely watched near-term event for soybean markets, with the potential to introduce significant volatility and shape the tone for the remainder of the season.

For the full grains analysis, visit: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/2889