Cage-free layer inventories in the US reached an average of 150.7 million in August, up from 150.2 million in July, an all-time high and just over 10% above last year, on USDA-AMS data. The number that matters is the one underneath it: growth has now slowed enough to trail the overall table egg-type flock. LEAP Market Analytics reads that as the cage-free segment having likely peaked a little shy of the 50% mark as a share of industry output, absent another state or federal policy shift or a change of heart among food companies and consumers.
LEAP puts it more sharply than balance, calling the category closer to saturation, and expects it may need to contract somewhat in the coming years relative to the rest of the industry. The economics explain why. Specific cage-free markets are on track to underperform the conventional side by at least $0.25 per dozen this year on wholesale spot price performance, and that discount is hard to carry when input costs for a cage-free operation typically run at least 20% above a conventional one of similar size and location. Cage-free stocks reached 462 thousand 30-dozen cases at the start of this week, the highest since April and 60% above a year earlier.
Exports are having their best year since 2021
The export program is the brighter thread. July table egg-type shipments came to nearly 320 million on a shell egg equivalent basis, up 51% on the same month last year and the largest monthly total since May 2023. That lifted January to July volume above 1.78 billion, a 29% increase on the 2025 pace, and LEAP projects 3.41 billion for the full year, up 40%.
Perspective is worth keeping. Every year from 2010 through 2021 saw annual exports of at least 3.50 billion, so this year’s recovery clears a bar that used to be routine. Canada has cut its imports of US eggs substantially after expanding its own table egg sector, where production rose 9.2% last year, yet it still took a 22.5% share and remained the top destination through the first seven months. Exports to most other countries are running well ahead of last year, which is what has made up the difference.
LEAP expects exports to absorb at least 4.0% of domestic table egg production this quarter, with a similar figure for shell eggs specifically. For most of the past four and a half years that measure sat below 3.0%, so the shift matters for domestic clearance without being decisive. Domestic per capita availability of shell eggs rose 2.0% in the first half of the year, and LEAP is looking for increases of at least 4.0% in the back half, which tells you how much of the supply growth the export recovery is actually absorbing.
