Cheese blocks on the CME Spot Call are at USD 1.34 a pound, 8.9 percent lower over the past month and 23.7 percent below a year ago. US cheese production is historically high, and cheese exports are at a record.
Even so, US cheese stocks climbed counter-seasonally in August to 1.44 billion pounds, up 2.3 percent on a year earlier. Exports are the main route to balance, and on 8 September Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on roughly USD 20 billion of American goods, dairy included, took effect.
Milk protein is moving the other way, with NFDM up 93.8 percent over twelve months. In our newly published US Dairy Q4 2026 Market Outlook, our dairy analyst Jasper Endlich sets out where he expects cheese to go next, and where our AI forecast takes a different view.
Download the US Dairy Q4 2026 Market Outlook
What our US Dairy Q4 2026 Market Outlook answers
The report covers cheese, butter, NFDM, dry whey and the protein concentrates. For cheese, it answers:
- Will US cheese prices recover in Q4 2026?
- What is the CME cheese block price forecast for 2027?
- How long will US cheese weakness last?
- How fast is US milk production growing, and which regions add the most?
- How does the Canada trade dispute affect US dairy exports?
- Why is milk protein rising while cheese and butter fall?
- Is US butter in structural surplus?
- What is the outlook for NFDM and dry whey in Q4?
- Where do our analyst and the AI forecast disagree on cheese?
