French corn was rated 23% good or excellent as of 14 September, down from 26% a week earlier and 62% a year ago. That is the lowest figure in FranceAgriMer’s records, which start in 2011. Harvesting has run ahead of it, at 27% complete against a five year average of 5%, and the farm ministry has cut its crop forecast to 8.1 million tonnes from 9.0 million last month, against 13.9 million a year ago. Persistent heat and drought are behind all three numbers.
Prices went the other way. Euronext corn eased to €264 a tonne from €268 two weeks earlier and CBOT December corn to 527 US cents a bushel from 536. What moved them was diplomacy rather than fundamentals: Turkey said again that it is in contact with both sides in the Black Sea conflict and has sent a proposal, Russia and Ukraine floated a possible meeting in Abu Dhabi, and Latvia decided against a full ban on grain transit. None of that has cleared the actual logistics problem. Exports from both countries are falling, and alternative routes are being targeted militarily too.
Wheat traded the same way. Euronext December milling wheat fell to €242 a tonne from €246, CBOT HRW to 784 cents a bushel from 802 and CBOT SRW to 714 from 734. FranceAgriMer cut French soft wheat exports inside the EU for 2026/27 to 7.1 million tonnes from 7.4 million and exports outside the EU to 6.3 million from 7.0 million, but end of season stocks fell too, to 3.01 million tonnes from 3.65 million, because a smaller harvest and more feed use outweighed the weaker export demand. Ukraine’s winter wheat sowing is going ahead into a moisture deficit, with the agriculture ministry warning the area could shrink on export difficulties and limited funds.
The supply cuts kept coming elsewhere. The IGC trimmed 2026/27 global corn production by 4 million tonnes to 1,301 million, with the US crop down to 401.3 million from 406.7 million and well below last season’s 432.2 million, the EU cut to 46.4 million and India to 50 million, partly offset by Argentina at 69.5 million. FOB north France milling barley fell to €225 a tonne from €230, and CBOT November soybeans to 1,303 cents a bushel from 1,316 as traders booked profits before next week’s Trump and Xi meeting. Vesper’s grains analysis sets out the quarter by quarter view behind these moves.
