MATIF milling wheat pulled back to €223/mt from €243/mt two weeks ago, and CBOT wheat followed the same path, with SRW down to 642 cents/bu from 705 and HRW to 713 from 763. The retreat came as wheat traders found some comfort in falling Brent crude and in a Ukrainian and Russian statement that alternative export routes and transport modes will keep volumes moving despite rising hostilities in the Black Sea. That comfort has limits. Export activity through the Black Sea itself remains low, and there’s still no proof that alternative volumes are actually reaching international markets. SovEcon, a Russian consultancy, cut its forecast for Russia’s 2026/27 wheat exports by 1.9 million tonnes to 44.6 million.
Europe’s own crop outlook softened at the same time. The European Commission cut its forecast for the EU’s 2026/27 soft wheat crop to 124.4 million tonnes, down from both last month’s estimate and the prior season, while crop monitor MARS trimmed its EU yield forecast as heat shortened grain filling in France and Germany.
Corn split along the Atlantic. MATIF corn eased to €250/mt from €260/mt on improving US weather and a better Brazilian outlook, with AgRural raising Brazil’s 2025/26 corn crop forecast on stronger second-crop progress. CBOT corn moved the other way, rising to 443 cents/bu from 411, after the USDA cut its US crop condition rating for a third straight week following hot, dry Midwest weather; beneficial rain has since arrived, but the market reacted to the earlier stress first. Europe’s own corn outlook deteriorated sharply, with the European Commission cutting its 2026/27 crop forecast by 8 million tonnes and French corn ratings falling to 34% good-to-excellent from 69% a year ago.
Barley held roughly steady, with the IGC subindex unchanged, even as the European Commission trimmed its EU crop forecast and Ukraine raised its own production and export outlook on stronger-than-expected yields.
Soybean fell the hardest, with CBOT soybean down to 1,159 cents/bu from 1,230 as improving US Midwest rain and a sharp drop in crude oil weighed on prices, even after Chinese state firms bought 14 to 16 US soybean cargoes. Sentiment stayed bearish on reports that China may pause further US soybean purchases until tariff tensions ease.
The analyst view across the complex is that a lot of bad news is already priced in on the Black Sea risk, and without an actual resolution, prices could turn higher again quickly if hostilities escalate further.
This news article is part of a broader Vesper market analysis on the global grains market. For the full market analysis, visit: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/3304
