Russia news — Vesper

Euronext wheat falls on Black Sea deal talk while corn climbs

Euronext wheat fell about 8% in two weeks on talk of a Black Sea deal, while Euronext corn rose as MARS cut its EU corn yield forecast again.

Sunflower oil drops ahead of Abu Dhabi talks on the Black Sea

Sunflower oil fell about 3% on the week after a Russia, Ukraine and US meeting was confirmed for Abu Dhabi, while Ukraine's exports have roughly halved.

Rapeseed oil takes the lead while sunflower oil's rally stalls

Rapeseed oil rose about 5% on the week as China bought close to 1 million tonnes of Australian canola, while sunflower oil's rally paused on Black Sea talks.

Sunflower oil climbs again while soybean oil slides into harvest

A physical sunflower oil shortage keeps pulling prices higher while the US harvest presses on soybean oil, leaving the complex without one direction.

France's corn crop is the smallest on record and Euronext noticed

France cut its 2026 corn forecast to the lowest level in ministry records going back to 1980, and Euronext corn jumped to new highs on the back of it.

India turns to palm oil while sunflower cargoes run short

BMD palm oil rebounded from last week's lows as Indian buyers returned. India's sunflower oil arrivals could fall to 160,000 tonnes in October.

Sunflower oil rebounds while Black Sea shipping stays stuck

Crude sunflower oil rebounded about 3% this week, while Ukraine's monthly exports halved in August and September. Palm oil kept sliding on the week.

Wheat holds a Black Sea premium into the fourth quarter

Euronext wheat is 31.8% above a year ago with the Black Sea still not shipping normally. See our wheat outlook to Q3 2027 in the free Grains Q4 report.

Black Sea deal hopes pull wheat lower, though a deal looks unlikely

Euronext milling wheat fell to €236/mt as talks on safe Black Sea grain shipping gathered pace, but the parties remain far apart and attacks on ports continue.

Palm oil falls to a three-month low on a looser Malaysian balance

BMD palm oil fell 4.7% on a looser Malaysian balance while soy, rapeseed and sunflower oil also slipped. See where Vesper expects prices to turn.

France's corn crop hits a record low condition rating

Only 23% of the French corn crop is rated good or excellent, the lowest in FranceAgriMer's records, while grain prices drifted lower on Black Sea hopes.

Malaysian palm stocks climb 7.5% while Q4 supply looks thinner

August MPOB data put Malaysian palm stocks up 7.5% at 2.82 mmt and BMD prices eased, but the Q4 view is tighter. Rapeseed sowing is the nearer European risk.

Black Sea deadlock lifts wheat, corn and barley

MATIF wheat and corn climbed again as Black Sea talks stalled and Egypt's wheat arrivals fell 75% year-on-year. Vesper's Q3 view stays sideways to up.

Black Sea export losses keep grains prices elevated into September

Wheat and corn are holding near recent highs as Ukrainian and Russian export losses tighten global supply, while soybeans rally on strong Chinese demand.

Brent's rebound lifts palm and soybean oil as Europe bakes

Brent crude's rebound to around $87 a barrel is lifting palm and soybean oil, while a European heatwave threatens France's corn crop.

Wheat prices ease despite an unresolved Black Sea problem

Wheat pulled back this fortnight even though the Black Sea disruption remains unresolved, while corn, barley and soybean each moved on their own drivers.

Falling Brent outweighs Black Sea risk in vegetable oils

Black Sea disruption should be bullish for vegetable oils, but a 5% drop in Brent crude after Trump shelved an Iran strike overwhelmed it across palm and soy.

Black Sea disruption and EU heat lift wheat and corn to multi-year highs

Euronext milling wheat and corn jumped to multi-year highs as Black Sea shipping attacks and a European heatwave hit crops heading into harvest.

Hot weather lifts EU grains while US futures slip

European grains firmed over two weeks as hot, dry weather raised yield worries, while US futures fell under harvest pressure and a sliding crude oil price.

Grains slip across the board on better US weather

Grain prices fell over two weeks as better US and EU weather, weaker soybeans and softer Brent crude pulled wheat, corn and barley back off recent gains.

European sugar: buyers and sellers dig in on new-crop prices

The 2026/27 European sugar market is a standoff: buyers hold around €530 depending on volume while sellers try to keep the line near €600 bulk ex works.

Vegetable oils slip lower on ceasefire optimism and weaker crude

BMD crude palm oil fell to $1,120/mt from $1,176/mt and CBOT soybean oil to 66.5 US cents/lb from 69.95, as ceasefire optimism and weaker crude weighed.

Sunflower oil market forecast 2026: prices firm on tight supply as Argentine shipments to Europe surge

FOB 6-port crude sunflower oil has risen to USD 1,485/mt from around USD 1,400 at the start of the year, on tight supply and firm Brent crude prices.

Brent at $80, $120, or $150: Scenario Analysis of the Impact on Global Commodity Markets

Vesper models three Brent oil scenarios, at $80, $120 and $150, and traces what each would mean for global commodity markets and procurement planning.

Strait of Hormuz tensions and the short-term outlook for brent crude oil

How Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruptions impact food commodities through energy prices, fertilizer costs, freight, USD strength and market sent

Soybean prices jump on China trade talks and U.S. crush demand

CBOT soybeans surged to 1,115 cents a bushel from 1,068 on US-China trade progress, new 45Z biofuel rules and strong December domestic crush demand.

Polish chicken prices fall as Avian Influenza outbreak triggers 2.79 million bird cull

Poland reported 22 new avian influenza outbreaks and culled 2.79 million birds, sending Polish chicken breast prices down 3.7% while French prices rose.

European wheat faces competition squeeze amid strong euro and record global output

French wheat flour has fallen to EUR 283/mt as record global output and an 11% euro appreciation squeeze European exporters against Russia and Argentina.

US butter prices drop sharply on CME as abundant milk supply weighs on dairy markets

CME butter has fallen sharply as US milk production grows 3% year on year alongside higher output from New Zealand and Europe, pressuring the whole market.

Record global grain production pressures prices across wheat, corn and barley markets

Global grain markets face downward pressure as record wheat, corn and barley production forecasts overwhelm seasonal patterns.

Trump tariffs begin in India, with rice, dairy, and tea amongst products impacted

US tariffs of 50% on most imports from India kick in today, affecting key commodities like basmati rice, spices, pulses, tea and dairy.

Vegetable oil markets face supply uncertainty as rapeseed crops disappoint

Rapeseed crops disappoint as EU production cut to 18.6M tons. Palm oil pressured by Malaysian inventory while soy complex gains on energy rally.

Mixed signals in the Vegetable Oil complex: a snapshot of the latest price trends

The global vegetable oil complex this week has presented us with a patchwork of fluctuations. With some oils such as palm, soybean oil (cash), coconut, and oliv

Highlights on the oils & fats market: Extension of the grain corridor at risk?

Central banks controlling $7 trillion in reserves are buying gold as geopolitical tension forces a rethink, while the Ukraine grain corridor looks at risk.

Increased EU-28 sugar imports from Ukraine due to competitive prices

Discover how competitive prices are boosting EU-28 sugar imports from Ukraine. Vesper provides insights for your trading adjustments.

Highlights on the Oils & Fats market: Uncertainty reigns in global markets

Will there be another global financial crisis? The question hanging over markets since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, and what it means for oils.

Highlights on the Oils & Fats market: Stability after a year of war?

With the war in Ukraine past a year, US officials say China is contemplating sending weapons to Russia. What a new player would mean for oils and fats.

Highlights on the Oils & Fats market: Stability for now, bears on the horizon

A week on from the Turkey and Syria earthquakes the toll has reached 36,000, the deadliest in modern Turkish history. Oils and fats hold stable for now.

Highlights on the Oils & Fats market: slowing down a sluggish market: What happens in China, doesn’t stay in China

A Chinese balloon over US airspace pushed tensions between the two countries to new highs this week. What that means for a sluggish oils and fats market.

Highlights on the Oils & Fats market: slowing down a sluggish market

Argentina and Brazil are weighing a common South American currency and have begun preparatory work, closing out an eventful first month of 2023.

Oils and Fats Highlights: Is the world economy waiting for China?

Europe's labour market is the bright spot amid its economic troubles, with unemployment at record lows despite high inflation and energy prices hitting firms.

Macroeconomic factors keep vegetable oil markets volatile

The war in Russia and Ukraine still dominates EU thinking, while the US leads the fight against inflation. How the macro picture keeps vegetable oils volatile.

Global production levels for vegetable oils are predicted to reach a record level

Expected price developments for palm, soybean, rapeseed and sunflower oil in the 22/23 crop year, as global vegetable oil output heads for a record level.

The Oils & Fats market experiences some respite, but for how long?

Russia withdrew from the grain deal then rejoined days later, after assurances from Ukraine on the shipping lane. What that means for oils and fats markets.

La Niña triple-dip: will it impact next year’s soybean and palm markets?

La Niña's third consecutive year affects global soybean and palm production, impacting markets amidst geopolitical challenges.

Petrobras reduces prices more frequently than increases, survey shows

Petrobras took longer to raise refinery prices when foreign values rose than to cut them when fuel retreated, according to a Reuters survey of company data.

Andalusia’s olive oil production drops by 49% due to extreme droughts

Andalusia, Spain's top olive oil region, faces a 49% production drop in 2022-2023 due to extreme weather. Prices surge amid global crises.

Where will fuel prices go in 2023 with Lula or Bolsonaro?

Whether under Lula or Bolsonaro, Brazil's next president will face high international fuel prices in 2023 and will need to respond quickly, analysts say.

Tereos Brasil to earn US$ 100 million with increased sales to Europe

With two mills newly certified to export ethanol to Europe, Tereos Brasil plans to send 25% of its 2022/23 biofuel output there, the largest volume yet.

With focus on financials, sugar advances strongly in the NY and London exchanges on Thursday

Sugar futures surge on NY and London exchanges amid geopolitical tensions and fluctuating currencies, with demand trends in focus.

Vegetable Oil Hightlights

An eventful week for the global economy: China's consumer confidence index has gone into free-fall on Covid troubles and an underperforming economy.

US Dollar Index Reaches 20 Year High

The US Dollar Index hit a 20-year high of 109 in July 2022 as the Federal Reserve turned more aggressive on rate rises to combat persistent inflation.

Ukraine/UK: Ukrproduct teetering on the edge

The London Stock Exchange has suspended dealing in Ukrproduct shares after the processor cited global challenges and an acute shortage of dairy raw materials.

Vegetable Oil Highlights

Palm oil took several big hits last week, falling back to levels not seen since before the war in Ukraine began and dragging the oilseed complex with it.

Ukrainian farmers complete spring planting

Ukrainian farmers have completed spring planting with a 21% drop in planted area against last year, according to an official notice reported by AgriCensus.

Vegetable Oil Highlights

Uncertainty grows week by week as announcements keep arriving and the oilseed complex swings on news and sentiment, led by Indonesian export policy.

Vegetable Oils Highlights

With activity limited across most vegetable oil markets, news and sentiment still lead over fundamentals, and the USDA estimates have shifted the tone.

Ukraine exports over half a million tonnes of vegetable oils in April

Ukraine exported 61,007 tonnes of vegetable oils by rail last month, AgriCensus reports, as the blockade of deep-sea ports forces crops onto the railways.

Vegetable Oils Highlights

Global vegetable oil markets remain highly susceptible to news and sentiment, and with so much news arriving at once the true outlook is hard to read.

Vegetable Oils Highlights

After weeks of rapid price movement the biggest jumps look to be behind us, though the short-term direction of vegetable oil markets remains uncertain.

Vegetable Oil Highlights

The invasion of Ukraine has tightened vegetable oil markets already short on production, and security of supply has become the issue for anyone needing product.

Vegetable Oil Highlights

The invasion of Ukraine is being felt worldwide, with crude oil soaring, prices rising broadly, and the availability of many grains and crops falling.

Weekly market analysis

Week 9: a week of violence on Ukrainian soil has brought life there to a halt, with no clear indication of when things will change. The market consequences.

Dairy Highlights

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is already being felt worldwide, from political uncertainty and sanctions to rising costs. What it means for dairy markets.

Russia

Euronext wheat falls on Black Sea deal talk while corn climbs

Sunflower oil drops ahead of Abu Dhabi talks on the Black Sea

Rapeseed oil takes the lead while sunflower oil's rally stalls

Sunflower oil climbs again while soybean oil slides into harvest

France's corn crop is the smallest on record and Euronext noticed

India turns to palm oil while sunflower cargoes run short

Sunflower oil rebounds while Black Sea shipping stays stuck

Wheat holds a Black Sea premium into the fourth quarter

Black Sea deal hopes pull wheat lower, though a deal looks unlikely

Palm oil falls to a three-month low on a looser Malaysian balance

France's corn crop hits a record low condition rating

Malaysian palm stocks climb 7.5% while Q4 supply looks thinner

Black Sea deadlock lifts wheat, corn and barley

Black Sea export losses keep grains prices elevated into September

Brent's rebound lifts palm and soybean oil as Europe bakes

Wheat prices ease despite an unresolved Black Sea problem

Falling Brent outweighs Black Sea risk in vegetable oils

Black Sea disruption and EU heat lift wheat and corn to multi-year highs

Hot weather lifts EU grains while US futures slip

Grains slip across the board on better US weather

European sugar: buyers and sellers dig in on new-crop prices

Vegetable oils slip lower on ceasefire optimism and weaker crude

Sunflower oil market forecast 2026: prices firm on tight supply as Argentine shipments to Europe surge

Brent at $80, $120, or $150: Scenario Analysis of the Impact on Global Commodity Markets

Strait of Hormuz tensions and the short-term outlook for brent crude oil

Soybean prices jump on China trade talks and U.S. crush demand

Polish chicken prices fall as Avian Influenza outbreak triggers 2.79 million bird cull

European wheat faces competition squeeze amid strong euro and record global output

US butter prices drop sharply on CME as abundant milk supply weighs on dairy markets

Record global grain production pressures prices across wheat, corn and barley markets

Trump tariffs begin in India, with rice, dairy, and tea amongst products impacted

Vegetable oil markets face supply uncertainty as rapeseed crops disappoint

Mixed signals in the Vegetable Oil complex: a snapshot of the latest price trends

Highlights on the oils & fats market: Extension of the grain corridor at risk?

Increased EU-28 sugar imports from Ukraine due to competitive prices

Highlights on the Oils & Fats market: Uncertainty reigns in global markets

Highlights on the Oils & Fats market: Stability after a year of war?

Highlights on the Oils & Fats market: Stability for now, bears on the horizon

Highlights on the Oils & Fats market: slowing down a sluggish market: What happens in China, doesn’t stay in China

Highlights on the Oils & Fats market: slowing down a sluggish market

Oils and Fats Highlights: Is the world economy waiting for China?

Macroeconomic factors keep vegetable oil markets volatile

Global production levels for vegetable oils are predicted to reach a record level

The Oils & Fats market experiences some respite, but for how long?

La Niña triple-dip: will it impact next year’s soybean and palm markets?

Petrobras reduces prices more frequently than increases, survey shows

Andalusia’s olive oil production drops by 49% due to extreme droughts

Where will fuel prices go in 2023 with Lula or Bolsonaro?

Tereos Brasil to earn US$ 100 million with increased sales to Europe

With focus on financials, sugar advances strongly in the NY and London exchanges on Thursday

Vegetable Oil Hightlights

US Dollar Index Reaches 20 Year High

Ukraine/UK: Ukrproduct teetering on the edge

Vegetable Oil Highlights

Ukrainian farmers complete spring planting

Vegetable Oil Highlights

Vegetable Oils Highlights

Ukraine exports over half a million tonnes of vegetable oils in April

Vegetable Oils Highlights

Vegetable Oils Highlights

Vegetable Oil Highlights

Vegetable Oil Highlights

Weekly market analysis

Dairy Highlights

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