Grain futures ran higher over the past fortnight, and two supply-side shocks arrived at once. Euronext milling wheat for September climbed to EUR 244/mt from EUR 205/mt two weeks earlier, while Euronext corn touched a multi-year high of EUR 259/mt. On the CBOT, September wheat and corn both moved up in step.
The first driver is the Black Sea. Renewed attacks on shipping and ports have disrupted vessel passage through the Azov Sea, leaving Ukraine and Russia, two of the world’s largest exporters, struggling to move grains to market. A corn vessel was struck, and grain-handling equipment at the port of Chornomorsk was damaged, forcing the terminal to suspend operations.
The second is weather. A European heatwave has hit crops as they head into harvest. FranceAgriMer rated just 41% of the French corn crop good or excellent as of 13 July, the weakest reading in at least 15 years. Both the IGC and USDA trimmed their 2026/27 global corn and wheat production and stock forecasts, and SovEcon cut its Russian wheat crop estimate.
Soybeans followed the complex higher, with CBOT beans supported by firm crude oil, strong NOPA crush data and steady Chinese buying. A new 25% US tariff on Brazilian imports, effective 22 July, added support to soybean oil by leaving tallow inside its scope.
The open question is whether the move holds. Vesper’s analyst reads the rally as overheated, with technical indicators stretched, and expects a correction before the quarter is out once short-covering runs its course and Black Sea logistics ease. The full outlook, quarter by quarter, is on the platform.
