Ukraine news — Vesper

Black Sea deadlock lifts wheat, corn and barley

MATIF wheat and corn climbed again as Black Sea talks stalled and Egypt's wheat arrivals fell 75% year-on-year. Vesper's Q3 view stays sideways to up.

Deferred palm oil contracts price in an El Nino loss

GAPKI says an extreme El Nino could cut Indonesian palm oil output by up to 3 million tonnes next season. The futures curve is already splitting on it.

Europe's beet crop drought pushes buyers toward imports

Drought has left Europe's beet crop unrecoverable in places, and Vesper estimates the EU and UK may need 3.4 million tonnes of sugar imports this season.

Black Sea export losses keep grains prices elevated into September

Wheat and corn are holding near recent highs as Ukrainian and Russian export losses tighten global supply, while soybeans rally on strong Chinese demand.

Palm oil's forward curve breaks above MYR 5,000 while spot eases

Palm oil's March contract broke above MYR 5,000 a tonne even as the spot month eased, while Brent's climb past $90 lifted soybean and rapeseed oil.

Brent's rebound lifts palm and soybean oil as Europe bakes

Brent crude's rebound to around $87 a barrel is lifting palm and soybean oil, while a European heatwave threatens France's corn crop.

Wheat prices ease despite an unresolved Black Sea problem

Wheat pulled back this fortnight even though the Black Sea disruption remains unresolved, while corn, barley and soybean each moved on their own drivers.

Falling Brent outweighs Black Sea risk in vegetable oils

Black Sea disruption should be bullish for vegetable oils, but a 5% drop in Brent crude after Trump shelved an Iran strike overwhelmed it across palm and soy.

Vegetable oils diverge as Brent crude retreats

Palm and soybean oil fell as Brent crude retreated below $86 a barrel, while sunflower oil rose on continued Black Sea port disruption and slow crushing.

Black Sea disruption and EU heat lift wheat and corn to multi-year highs

Euronext milling wheat and corn jumped to multi-year highs as Black Sea shipping attacks and a European heatwave hit crops heading into harvest.

Bullish signals stack up across the vegetable oil complex

Brent, palm, soy, rapeseed and sunflower oil are all firming as energy, tariffs and Black Sea disruption stack bullish drivers across the complex.

Heatwave lifts Euronext corn to a multi-year high

Heat damage puts French corn on course for a 26-year low, lifting Euronext corn to a multi-year high while wheat eases on strong harvest progress.

Grains slip across the board on better US weather

Grain prices fell over the past two weeks as improving weather in the US and EU, weaker soybeans, and softer Brent crude pulled the complex lower. Grains...

EU egg prices correct from highs; heatwave hits at the worst possible moment

European egg prices are falling across all categories this fortnight, driven by rising imports from Eastern Europe and Turkey, approaching seasonal demand...

Energy market strength lifts sugar to one-month high

Raw sugar prices extended their climb over the past week. The NY11 July contract closed at a one-month high of 15.37 USc/lb on 5 May, supported by spillover ...

EU partially suspends sugar IPP imports for one year from May 27

The European Commission's Management Committee for sugar voted on April 30 to partially suspend Inward Processing Procedure (IPP) imports for one year, with ...

El Niño risk reshapes sugar's 2026/27 supply outlook

Raw sugar edged higher this week, supported by Brazil's planned anhydrous ethanol blending rate increase from 30% to 32% (pending formal approval at a CNPE...

Rapeseed market firms after Germany adopts RED III

European rapeseed prices climbed this week, supported by Germany's adoption of Renewable Energy Directive III (RED III) alongside tight EU stocks, strong...

Vegetable oils slip lower on ceasefire optimism and weaker crude

All major oils lower BMD crude palm oil declined to $1,120/mt from $1,176/mt. CBOT soybean oil fell to 66.5 US cents/lb from 69.95 cents. MATIF rapeseed...

Middle East conflict drives Brazilian chicken prices higher

Brazilian chicken meat prices have reversed sharply in week 14, ending a bearish trend that had held for several months. Whole bird and cut prices rose...

Grains hold firm on crude oil support, but markets watch for de-escalation signals

Grain prices across wheat, corn, barley, and soybeans remained elevated this week, with Brent crude oil continuing to provide the primary source of support. ...

Vegetable oils rebound on crude surge and biofuel policy shifts

Vegetable oil prices recovered broadly last week, with palm and soybean oil leading gains on the back of firmer Brent crude and new biofuel policy...

European egg market forecast 2026: avian flu outbreaks keep supply tight and prices elevated through Q1

Mass avian flu outbreaks have persisted throughout Q1 2026, with scarcity continuing to affect the market. Extensive flock cullings following widespread...

Sunflower oil market forecast 2026: prices firm on tight supply as Argentine shipments to Europe surge

FOB 6-port crude sunflower oil prices have increased to USD 1,485/mt from around USD 1,400/mt at the beginning of the year, supported by tight supply...

Middle East conflict pushes vegetable oil prices higher as freight costs climb

Brent crude's rise following Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz is lifting vegetable oil prices across the board, with freight...

Strait of Hormuz tensions and the short-term outlook for brent crude oil

How Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruptions impact food commodities through energy prices, fertilizer costs, freight, USD strength and market sent

Palm oil prices decline on weak February exports; POC conference flags 2026 supply risks

Palm oil prices declined to $1,030/mt amid poor early-February export data and the Lunar New Year, while the POC Malaysia conference...

Soybean prices jump on China trade talks and U.S. crush demand

CBOT soybeans surged to 1,115 cents/bushel as China signals potential increase to 20 MMT purchases. New 45Z rules and December crush of...

EU egg market faces structural supply pressure as avian influenza culls and trade restrictions tighten availability

Empty shelves across Austria, Germany and France signal structural supply tightness in EU egg markets. HPAI culls, slow restocking

Indian importers secure 150,000 metric tons monthly of South American soy oil

Indian buyers commit to purchasing over 150,000 metric tons of South American soybean oil monthly from April to July 2025, driven by...

European wheat faces competition squeeze amid strong euro and record global output

French wheat flour falls to EUR 283/mt as abundant global supplies and 11% euro appreciation squeeze European exporters facing competition...

Rapeseed oil prices hold firm on tight supply and biodiesel policy expectations

Rapeseed oil prices reach EUR 1,085/mt as EU imports decline sharply and the market awaits German biodiesel policy decisions that could...

Record yields drive European sugar producers to cut 2026 output

Major European sugar producers announce significant production cuts for 2026 as record yields and elevated stocks create supply pressures.

Sunflower oil prices reach 10-month high as tight supply persists

Sunflower oil reached $1,405/mt as harvest disappointments in Ukraine, Russia, and Europe tighten global supply. Bulgarian processors face...

Black Sea sunflower crop concerns drive prices higher as supply outlook tightens

Sunflower oil prices increased $20/mt as Ukrainian crop estimates fell to 10.5-11.2 mmt from 12.7 mmt last year. Poor yields and excessive...

Sunflower oil prices climb as crop forecasts deteriorate across key producing regions

Sunflower oil prices increased by $10/mt to $1360/mt as crop forecasts in Ukraine and Russia continue to deteriorate. APK-Inform reduced...

Record global grain production pressures prices across wheat, corn and barley markets

Global grain markets face downward pressure as record wheat, corn and barley production forecasts overwhelm seasonal patterns.

Ukrainian rapeseed export delays drive European oil prices higher

Rapeseed oil prices rise as Ukrainian export disruptions limit supply during harvest season, while Canadian production increases promise...

Rapeseed oil prices increase on Ukrainian export disruptions and strong rival oils

Rapeseed oil rose EUR 20/mt to EUR 1,081/mt as unclear Ukrainian export mechanisms and rival vegetable oil strength provide support.

Rapeseed supply expands while sunflower markets tighten amid harvest delays

Ukrainian sunflower crop drops to 13.56 mmt while rapeseed forecasts rise 700k mt in Australia. Palm oil gains $20/mt on Malaysian supply concerns. Analysis.

Sugar contract negotiations see delayed activity in European market this year

European sugar contract negotiations lag behind historical patterns as elevated 2024 production levels create higher stock availability...

Sugar prices drop to 16 cents as Brazil's Center-South production picks up pace

Sugar prices decline to near 16 cents/lb driven by Brazil's Center-South production increase and potential Indian export expansion.

Vegetable oil markets show mixed signals as laurics reach historic highs

Latest vegetable oil market analysis reveals coconut oil reaching crisis levels at $2,700/mt while palm oil gains on reduced US tariffs.

Biodiesel prices edge higher as feedstock costs rise amid tariff deadline pressure

FAME0 gains $6/mt to $1,322/mt while UCO prices surge. HVO softens as August tariff deadlines approach. LSGO drops $84/mt on trade war fears.

Vegetable oils market declines as Middle East tensions cool

Palm oil, soy oil, and rapeseed prices fall as crude oil drops $5/barrel amid Israel-Iran ceasefire. Get Vesper's Week 26 market analysis.

Vegetable oil markets face supply uncertainty as rapeseed crops disappoint

Rapeseed crops disappoint as EU production cut to 18.6M tons. Palm oil pressured by Malaysian inventory while soy complex gains on energy rally.

Biodiesel markets face mixed pressures as feedstock dynamics shift in late May 2025

Biodiesel prices show mixed trends as UCO imports surge 17% and RME strengthens on rapeseed concerns.

Trade wars trigger global vegetable oil price decline: Vesper's week 10 market analysis

Trump's tariffs drive global veg oil prices down despite tight Malaysian palm stocks. Bearish outlook for palm oil through 2025.

Global Biodiesel and Vegetable Oil Markets See Mixed Movements Amid Political and Economic Developments

Explore the latest trends in biodiesel and vegetable oil markets, including price drops, regulatory updates, and global supply forecasts.

Sucrose Levels Are Falling Below the 5-Year Average in Parts of Europe Due to Unfavorable Weather Patterns

Heavy rainfall and humidity in Germany and France are causing sucrose levels in sugar beets to fall below the 5-year average.

Vegetable Oils Prices Down as Brent Crude Oil Hits Lowest Level This Year

Brent crude oil hits a yearly low, leading to a decline in palm oil, soybean oil, and other vegetable oil benchmarks. View the latest prices.

Rapeseed complex is stronger w-o-w on weather worries

Discover how adverse weather conditions in key regions are driving up rapeseed and canola prices. Explore the latest price increases here.

Palm Oil Update: Higher Freight Rates and Improved Production

Stay informed with the latest in the palm oil market. Explore the impact of increased freight rates and enhanced production on the industry.

EU Sugar Production Forecast for 2024/2025, including Pricing Insights

Stay ahead with our EU Sugar Production Forecast for 2024/2025. Get insights into beet cultivation, market trends, and price indices.

Exploring the Latest Sugar Market Sentiment: Outlook and Trends

Explore the latest sugar market outlook: global prices show minimal fluctuation as Brazil's Center-South early harvest approaches.

Soybean oil complex strengthens on massive new Phillips 66 renewable diesel plant

Explore how the soybean oil complex strengthens on the massive new Phillips 66 renewable diesel plant and more...

European sunflower oil Market Update

Explore the latest developments in the European sunflower oil market, including price trends and producer responses in Ukraine.

Mixed signals in the Vegetable Oil complex: a snapshot of the latest price trends

The global vegetable oil complex this week has presented us with a patchwork of fluctuations. With some oils such as palm, soybean oil (cash), coconut, and oliv

Limited trading activity characterises the UCOME market amidst rising prices

Explore the UCOME market's nuanced landscape with rising prices and limited trading activity. Uncover the impact of low liquidity and increased UCO prices on UC

Projected Global Shortfall Spurs Surprising Price Decline

Navigate the surprising dynamics of the global sugar industry in the face of projected deficits. Discover how key regions like Brazil, India, EU, Ukraine, and T

Highlights on the oils & fats market: Extension of the grain corridor at risk?

Central bankers who manage trillions in foreign exchange reserves are loading up on gold as geopolitical tensions force them to revise their investment...

Highlights on the oils & fats market: Falling food prices go hand in hand with bearishness

Explore recent geopolitical tensions: Taiwan-China military exercises, easing China-Australia trade conflict, and global food price trends.

Increased EU-28 sugar imports from Ukraine due to competitive prices

Discover how competitive prices are boosting EU-28 sugar imports from Ukraine. Vesper provides insights for your trading adjustments.

Highlights on the Oils & Fats market: Uncertainty reigns in global markets

Will there be another worldwide financial crisis? This question is the big thing hanging over the financial markets these days. It all started with the...

Highlights on the Oils & Fats market: Droughts and floods ruling the market

Remarkable news from China this week. The country, with steady economic growth over the past years, presented its economic plans. Li Keqiang, China's...

Highlights on the Oils & Fats market: Stability after a year of war?

As the war in Ukraine officially lasts now more than a year, a new player on the chess board might be involved soon; China. US officials have intelligence...

Macroeconomic factors keep vegetable oil markets volatile

In the EU, the war between Russia and Ukraine is still on everyone’s mind, especially due to its contribution to the current economic situation. The US is...

The Oils & Fats market experiences some respite, but for how long?

Another interesting week for the global commodities markets. Following the withdrawal from the grain deal, Russia returned to it only a few days later....

La Niña triple-dip: will it impact next year’s soybean and palm markets?

La Niña's third consecutive year affects global soybean and palm production, impacting markets amidst geopolitical challenges.

Italy: 25% of dairy farms at risk

The war in Ukraine and inflation will cost dairy farms in Italy an average of €90,129, with production costs up 111% in the first half of 2022 compared to...

Petrobras reduces prices more frequently than increases, survey shows

Petrobras took longer to adjust prices at refineries this year in periods when values were on the rise in foreign markets compared to intervals in which the ...

Ukrainian crushing companies face tight supply of old and new crop sunflowerseeds

Crushing companies in Ukraine are facing a tight supply of sunflowerseeds due to farmers holding back sales of old crop and low new stocks, compounded by...

Andalusia’s olive oil production drops by 49% due to extreme droughts

Andalusia, Spain's top olive oil region, faces a 49% production drop in 2022-2023 due to extreme weather. Prices surge amid global crises.

Where will fuel prices go in 2023 with Lula or Bolsonaro?

Whether under Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) or Jair Bolsonaro (PL), the next president of the Republic will have to deal, in 2023, with a reality of high...

Tereos Brasil to earn US$ 100 million with increased sales to Europe

With two mills recently certified to export ethanol to the European market, Tereos Brasil intends to send 25% of its biofuel production in the 2022/23...

World: Agency leaders urge action on food crisis

The heads of the FAO, IMF, World Bank Group, World Food Programme and WTO have issued a joint statement calling for “urgent action to address the global...

Butter | WMP | SMP Highlights

The very calm and quiet dairy market continues, as traded volumes are still down, and buyers and sellers are waiting to see what happens next. Sellers are...

US Dollar Index Reaches 20 Year High

The US Dollar Index hit a 20-year high at 109 in July 2022 following the Federal Reserve System (Fed) tightening policies to combat rising inflation. The...

Ukraine/UK: Ukrproduct teetering on the edge

Following the release of a trading update on Friday, share dealing in processor Ukrproduct has been suspended by the London Stock Exchange. The company said ...

Vegetable Oil Highlights

Palm oil prices took several big hits last week, dropping back to levels we have not seen since before the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine. In...

Ukrainian farmers complete spring planting

Farmers in Ukraine have finished their spring planting campaign, according to an official notice reported by AgriCensus. On completion of the campaign, a...

Vegetable Oil Highlights

It seems that the uncertainty in the market continues to grow and that it is mainly a matter of guessing what awaits us in the near future. The following...

Vegetable Oil Highlights

Uncertainty seems to be growing by the week, as announcements keep coming in and the oilseed complex is moving a lot regarding news and sentiment. There are ...

Vegetable Oils Highlights

As long as the activity in most markets for vegetable oils is very limited, news and sentiment are still leading the markets more than fundamentals. This...

Ukraine exports over half a million tonnes of vegetable oils in April

A total of 61,007 tonnes of vegetable oils were exported by rail from Ukraine last month, AgriCensus reported. Following Russia’s invasion of the country on ...

Vegetable Oils Highlights

As mentioned in previous highlights, the global vegetable oil markets currently are highly susceptive to news and sentiment. Since there currently is a lot...

Vegetable Oils Highlights

After a few weeks full of rapid price movement and a lot of uncertainty, it seems like the biggest price jumps are behind us. Regarding the overall...

Vegetable Oil Highlights

The Russian invasion in Ukraine has tightened most vegetable oil markets even further than they were due to the lower production this and last season. For...

Vegetable Oil Highlights

The direct impacts of the Russian invasion in Ukraine are being felt around the world, as crude oil prices are soaring and many other products are...

Weekly market analysis

Week 9 While many had hoped that the Russians would hold off from military actions, a week full of violence and fights on Ukrainian grounds has already...

Dairy Highlights

The world is currently being distraught by the Russian invasion on Ukraine, halting the daily lives of all Ukrainians. The effects of the military action...