Ukraine news — Vesper

Bird flu reaches Dutch layer farms while egg prices stall

Avian influenza reached commercial laying hens in the Netherlands, yet Europe's egg prices stayed flat and only organic and free-range supply is short.

Euronext wheat falls on Black Sea deal talk while corn climbs

Euronext wheat fell about 8% in two weeks on talk of a Black Sea deal, while Euronext corn rose as MARS cut its EU corn yield forecast again.

Sunflower oil drops ahead of Abu Dhabi talks on the Black Sea

Sunflower oil fell about 3% on the week after a Russia, Ukraine and US meeting was confirmed for Abu Dhabi, while Ukraine's exports have roughly halved.

Lula's win knocked Brazil's currency, and sugar went with it

The real posted its biggest drawdown since 1999 after Lula's re-election, pulling raw sugar nearly 5% lower in a single session with fund length already high.

Rapeseed oil takes the lead while sunflower oil's rally stalls

Rapeseed oil rose about 5% on the week as China bought close to 1 million tonnes of Australian canola, while sunflower oil's rally paused on Black Sea talks.

Sunflower oil climbs again while soybean oil slides into harvest

A physical sunflower oil shortage keeps pulling prices higher while the US harvest presses on soybean oil, leaving the complex without one direction.

Europe's egg market waits for its autumn lift, with organic still short

European egg prices have barely moved in two weeks and the usual October lift is late, while organic, free-range and extra-large eggs stay hard to find.

France's corn crop is the smallest on record and Euronext noticed

France cut its 2026 corn forecast to the lowest level in ministry records going back to 1980, and Euronext corn jumped to new highs on the back of it.

Sunflower oil rebounds while Black Sea shipping stays stuck

Crude sunflower oil rebounded about 3% this week, while Ukraine's monthly exports halved in August and September. Palm oil kept sliding on the week.

Wheat holds a Black Sea premium into the fourth quarter

Euronext wheat is 31.8% above a year ago with the Black Sea still not shipping normally. See our wheat outlook to Q3 2027 in the free Grains Q4 report.

Black Sea deal hopes pull wheat lower, though a deal looks unlikely

Euronext milling wheat fell to €236/mt as talks on safe Black Sea grain shipping gathered pace, but the parties remain far apart and attacks on ports continue.

Poland stays the swing factor as EU chicken heads into autumn

EU chicken output is growing but has turned more volatile, with Polish production down about 20% in July, while bird flu and Newcastle disease stay contained.

US eggs turn higher while Europe's rally pauses

US caged white egg prices rose 30.6% in two weeks on stronger demand, while European gains narrowed as record imports cap the caged end of the market.

Palm oil falls to a three-month low on a looser Malaysian balance

BMD palm oil fell 4.7% on a looser Malaysian balance while soy, rapeseed and sunflower oil also slipped. See where Vesper expects prices to turn.

EU poultry prices pull back as bird migration starts

European poultry output is running 4.4% ahead of last year and prices have come off their 2026 highs, just as the autumn bird migration season begins.

France's corn crop hits a record low condition rating

Only 23% of the French corn crop is rated good or excellent, the lowest in FranceAgriMer's records, while grain prices drifted lower on Black Sea hopes.

Malaysian palm stocks climb 7.5% while Q4 supply looks thinner

August MPOB data put Malaysian palm stocks up 7.5% at 2.82 mmt and BMD prices eased, but the Q4 view is tighter. Rapeseed sowing is the nearer European risk.

Indonesia confirms B50; Vesper sees 1 mmt of extra demand

Full B50 would lift palm oil going into Indonesian biofuels by 2.4 million tonnes. Vesper's estimate for growth beyond B40 without the full step is 1 million.

Black Sea deadlock lifts wheat, corn and barley

MATIF wheat and corn climbed again as Black Sea talks stalled and Egypt's wheat arrivals fell 75% year-on-year. Vesper's Q3 view stays sideways to up.

Europe's certified eggs are being reserved for the shelf

European egg prices have risen for a fourth week, with barn eggs up 7.2% in a fortnight, and processors are the first buyers being crowded out.

Deferred palm oil contracts price in an El Nino loss

GAPKI says an extreme El Nino could cut Indonesian palm oil output by up to 3 million tonnes next season. The futures curve is already splitting on it.

Europe's beet crop drought pushes buyers toward imports

Drought has left Europe's beet crop unrecoverable in places, and Vesper estimates the EU and UK may need 3.4 million tonnes of sugar imports this season.

Black Sea export losses keep grains prices elevated into September

Wheat and corn are holding near recent highs as Ukrainian and Russian export losses tighten global supply, while soybeans rally on strong Chinese demand.

Palm oil's forward curve breaks above MYR 5,000 while spot eases

Palm oil's March contract broke above MYR 5,000 a tonne even as the spot month eased, while Brent's climb past $90 lifted soybean and rapeseed oil.

Brent's rebound lifts palm and soybean oil as Europe bakes

Brent crude's rebound to around $87 a barrel is lifting palm and soybean oil, while a European heatwave threatens France's corn crop.

Wheat prices ease despite an unresolved Black Sea problem

Wheat pulled back this fortnight even though the Black Sea disruption remains unresolved, while corn, barley and soybean each moved on their own drivers.

Falling Brent outweighs Black Sea risk in vegetable oils

Black Sea disruption should be bullish for vegetable oils, but a 5% drop in Brent crude after Trump shelved an Iran strike overwhelmed it across palm and soy.

Vegetable oils diverge as Brent crude retreats

Palm and soybean oil fell as Brent crude retreated below $86 a barrel, while sunflower oil rose on continued Black Sea port disruption and slow crushing.

Black Sea disruption and EU heat lift wheat and corn to multi-year highs

Euronext milling wheat and corn jumped to multi-year highs as Black Sea shipping attacks and a European heatwave hit crops heading into harvest.

Bullish signals stack up across the vegetable oil complex

Brent, palm, soy, rapeseed and sunflower oil are all firming as energy, tariffs and Black Sea disruption stack bullish drivers across the complex.

Heatwave lifts Euronext corn to a multi-year high

Heat damage puts French corn on course for a 26-year low, lifting Euronext corn to a multi-year high while wheat eases on strong harvest progress.

Grains slip across the board on better US weather

Grain prices fell over two weeks as better US and EU weather, weaker soybeans and softer Brent crude pulled wheat, corn and barley back off recent gains.

EU egg prices correct from highs; heatwave hits at the worst possible moment

European egg prices are falling across all categories on rising imports from Eastern Europe and Turkey, seasonal weakness, and record pullet placements.

Energy market strength lifts sugar to one-month high

Raw sugar extended its climb, with the NY11 July contract closing at a one-month high of 15.37 USc/lb on stronger oil and a firmer Brazilian real.

EU partially suspends sugar IPP imports for one year from May 27

The European Commission's sugar committee voted on April 30 to partially suspend Inward Processing Procedure imports for one year, effective from May 27.

El Niño risk reshapes sugar's 2026/27 supply outlook

Raw sugar edged higher on Brazil's planned anhydrous ethanol blend increase from 30% to 32% and firmer crude, with Sugar No. 11 settling at 14.11 cents/lb.

Rapeseed market firms after Germany adopts RED III

MATIF rapeseed rose to EUR 552/mt from EUR 508/mt after Germany adopted RED III, with tight EU stocks, strong crush and firmer crude oil all lending support.

Vegetable oils slip lower on ceasefire optimism and weaker crude

BMD crude palm oil fell to $1,120/mt from $1,176/mt and CBOT soybean oil to 66.5 US cents/lb from 69.95, as ceasefire optimism and weaker crude weighed.

Middle East conflict drives Brazilian chicken prices higher

Brazilian chicken prices reversed sharply in week 14, with whole bird and cut prices up 5% to 7%, driven by further escalation of the Middle East conflict.

Grains hold firm on crude oil support, but markets watch for de-escalation signals

Wheat, corn, barley and soybeans stayed elevated on Brent crude support, though US signals that the Middle East conflict could end soon are being priced in.

Vegetable oils rebound on crude surge and biofuel policy shifts

Palm and soybean oil led a broad vegetable oil recovery on firmer Brent and new biofuel policy in the US and Indonesia, while coconut oil moved the other way.

European egg market forecast 2026: avian flu outbreaks keep supply tight and prices elevated through Q1

Mass avian flu outbreaks have persisted through Q1 2026, with extensive cullings across major European producers keeping supply tight and prices elevated.

Sunflower oil market forecast 2026: prices firm on tight supply as Argentine shipments to Europe surge

FOB 6-port crude sunflower oil has risen to USD 1,485/mt from around USD 1,400 at the start of the year, on tight supply and firm Brent crude prices.

Middle East conflict pushes vegetable oil prices higher as freight costs climb

Brent crude's rise after Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz is lifting vegetable oils across the board, with freight costs climbing on key shipping routes.

Strait of Hormuz tensions and the short-term outlook for brent crude oil

How Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruptions impact food commodities through energy prices, fertilizer costs, freight, USD strength and market sent

Palm oil prices decline on weak February exports; POC conference flags 2026 supply risks

BMD CPO settled at $1,030/mt from $1,043/mt on weak early-February exports and Lunar New Year, while the POC Malaysia conference flagged 2026 supply risks.

Soybean prices jump on China trade talks and U.S. crush demand

CBOT soybeans surged to 1,115 cents a bushel from 1,068 on US-China trade progress, new 45Z biofuel rules and strong December domestic crush demand.

EU egg market faces structural supply pressure as avian influenza culls and trade restrictions tighten availability

Empty shelves across Austria, Germany and France signal structural supply tightness in EU egg markets. HPAI culls, slow restocking

Indian importers secure 150,000 metric tons monthly of South American soy oil

Indian buyers have committed to more than 150,000 tonnes of South American soybean oil a month from April to July 2025, fearing tighter palm and sunflower.

European wheat faces competition squeeze amid strong euro and record global output

French wheat flour has fallen to EUR 283/mt as record global output and an 11% euro appreciation squeeze European exporters against Russia and Argentina.

Rapeseed oil prices hold firm on tight supply and biodiesel policy expectations

December crude rapeseed oil FOB Dutch Mill reached EUR 1,085/mt, up from EUR 1,075/mt, with the market in backwardation on tight European Union supply.

Record yields drive European sugar producers to cut 2026 output

Major European sugar producers announce significant production cuts for 2026 as record yields and elevated stocks create supply pressures.

Sunflower oil prices reach 10-month high as tight supply persists

November crude sunflower oil reached $1,405/mt from $1,360/mt, with FOB Ukraine at $635/mt, the highest since December 2024, on harvest disappointments.

Black Sea sunflower crop concerns drive prices higher as supply outlook tightens

Sunflower oil rose $20/mt to $1,375/mt as Ukrainian crop estimates fell to 10.5-11.2 mmt from 12.7 mmt last year on poor yields and excessive rainfall.

Sunflower oil prices climb as crop forecasts deteriorate across key producing regions

Crude sunflower oil for November-December delivery rose $10/mt to $1,360/mt at Ukrainian ports, as crop forecasts in Ukraine and Russia keep deteriorating.

Record global grain production pressures prices across wheat, corn and barley markets

Global grain markets face downward pressure as record wheat, corn and barley production forecasts overwhelm seasonal patterns.

Ukrainian rapeseed export delays drive European oil prices higher

MATIF rapeseed rose EUR 1/mt to EUR 471/mt and crude rapeseed oil FOB Dutch Mill to EUR 1,110/mt, as Ukrainian export delays limit harvest-period supply.

Rapeseed oil prices increase on Ukrainian export disruptions and strong rival oils

Rapeseed oil rose EUR 20/mt to EUR 1,081/mt as unclear Ukrainian export mechanisms and rival vegetable oil strength provide support.

Rapeseed supply expands while sunflower markets tighten amid harvest delays

Ukrainian sunflower crop drops to 13.56 mmt while rapeseed forecasts rise 700k mt in Australia. Palm oil gains $20/mt on Malaysian supply concerns. Analysis.

Sugar contract negotiations see delayed activity in European market this year

European sugar contracting is running later than the usual June-July window, as elevated 2024 production leaves higher stock availability across the market.

Sugar prices drop to 16 cents as Brazil's Center-South production picks up pace

Sugar prices decline to near 16 cents/lb driven by Brazil's Center-South production increase and potential Indian export expansion.

Vegetable oil markets show mixed signals as laurics reach historic highs

Latest vegetable oil market analysis reveals coconut oil reaching crisis levels at $2,700/mt while palm oil gains on reduced US tariffs.

Biodiesel prices edge higher as feedstock costs rise amid tariff deadline pressure

FAME0 gains $6/mt to $1,322/mt while UCO prices surge. HVO softens as August tariff deadlines approach. LSGO drops $84/mt on trade war fears.

Vegetable oils market declines as Middle East tensions cool

Palm oil, soy oil, and rapeseed prices fall as crude oil drops $5/barrel amid Israel-Iran ceasefire. Get Vesper's Week 26 market analysis.

Vegetable oil markets face supply uncertainty as rapeseed crops disappoint

Rapeseed crops disappoint as EU production cut to 18.6M tons. Palm oil pressured by Malaysian inventory while soy complex gains on energy rally.

Biodiesel markets face mixed pressures as feedstock dynamics shift in late May 2025

European biodiesel prices diverge in late May 2025 as FOB ARA UCOME slips, UCO imports surge 17% and RME strengthens on rapeseed supply concerns.

Trade wars trigger global vegetable oil price decline: Vesper's week 10 market analysis

Trump's tariffs drive global veg oil prices down despite tight Malaysian palm stocks. Bearish outlook for palm oil through 2025.

Global Biodiesel and Vegetable Oil Markets See Mixed Movements Amid Political and Economic Developments

Explore the latest trends in biodiesel and vegetable oil markets, including price drops, regulatory updates, and global supply forecasts.

Sucrose Levels Are Falling Below the 5-Year Average in Parts of Europe Due to Unfavorable Weather Patterns

Heavy rainfall and humidity in Germany and France are causing sucrose levels in sugar beets to fall below the 5-year average.

Vegetable Oils Prices Down as Brent Crude Oil Hits Lowest Level This Year

Brent crude oil hits a yearly low, leading to a decline in palm oil, soybean oil, and other vegetable oil benchmarks. View the latest prices.

Rapeseed complex is stronger w-o-w on weather worries

Discover how adverse weather conditions in key regions are driving up rapeseed and canola prices. Explore the latest price increases here.

Palm Oil Update: Higher Freight Rates and Improved Production

Stay informed with the latest in the palm oil market. Explore the impact of increased freight rates and enhanced production on the industry.

EU Sugar Production Forecast for 2024/2025, including Pricing Insights

Stay ahead with our EU Sugar Production Forecast for 2024/2025. Get insights into beet cultivation, market trends, and price indices.

Exploring the Latest Sugar Market Sentiment: Outlook and Trends

Explore the latest sugar market outlook: global prices show minimal fluctuation as Brazil's Center-South early harvest approaches.

Soybean oil complex strengthens on massive new Phillips 66 renewable diesel plant

CBOT soybean oil settled up at $973/mt from $952/mt and soybeans recovered to $411/mt, with traders citing the new Phillips 66 renewable diesel plant.

European sunflower oil Market Update

Explore the latest developments in the European sunflower oil market, including price trends and producer responses in Ukraine.

Mixed signals in the Vegetable Oil complex: a snapshot of the latest price trends

The global vegetable oil complex this week has presented us with a patchwork of fluctuations. With some oils such as palm, soybean oil (cash), coconut, and oliv

Limited trading activity characterises the UCOME market amidst rising prices

Explore the UCOME market's nuanced landscape with rising prices and limited trading activity. Uncover the impact of low liquidity and increased UCO prices on UC

Projected Global Shortfall Spurs Surprising Price Decline

Navigate the surprising dynamics of the global sugar industry in the face of projected deficits. Discover how key regions like Brazil, India, EU, Ukraine, and T

Highlights on the oils & fats market: Extension of the grain corridor at risk?

Central banks controlling $7 trillion in reserves are buying gold as geopolitical tension forces a rethink, while the Ukraine grain corridor looks at risk.

Highlights on the oils & fats market: Falling food prices go hand in hand with bearishness

Explore recent geopolitical tensions: Taiwan-China military exercises, easing China-Australia trade conflict, and global food price trends.

Increased EU-28 sugar imports from Ukraine due to competitive prices

Discover how competitive prices are boosting EU-28 sugar imports from Ukraine. Vesper provides insights for your trading adjustments.

Highlights on the Oils & Fats market: Uncertainty reigns in global markets

Will there be another global financial crisis? The question hanging over markets since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, and what it means for oils.

Highlights on the Oils & Fats market: Droughts and floods ruling the market

China has set a GDP growth target of around 5%, less ambitious than analysts expected, while droughts and floods continue to rule the oils and fats market.

Highlights on the Oils & Fats market: Stability after a year of war?

With the war in Ukraine past a year, US officials say China is contemplating sending weapons to Russia. What a new player would mean for oils and fats.

Macroeconomic factors keep vegetable oil markets volatile

The war in Russia and Ukraine still dominates EU thinking, while the US leads the fight against inflation. How the macro picture keeps vegetable oils volatile.

The Oils & Fats market experiences some respite, but for how long?

Russia withdrew from the grain deal then rejoined days later, after assurances from Ukraine on the shipping lane. What that means for oils and fats markets.

La Niña triple-dip: will it impact next year’s soybean and palm markets?

La Niña's third consecutive year affects global soybean and palm production, impacting markets amidst geopolitical challenges.

Italy: 25% of dairy farms at risk

War in Ukraine and inflation will cost Italian dairy farms an average of €90,129, with production costs up 111% in the first half of 2022 against 2020.

Petrobras reduces prices more frequently than increases, survey shows

Petrobras took longer to raise refinery prices when foreign values rose than to cut them when fuel retreated, according to a Reuters survey of company data.

Ukrainian crushing companies face tight supply of old and new crop sunflowerseeds

Ukrainian crushers face tight sunflowerseed supply as farmers hold back old crop and new stocks stay low, with heavy rain slowing the harvest campaign.

Andalusia’s olive oil production drops by 49% due to extreme droughts

Andalusia, Spain's top olive oil region, faces a 49% production drop in 2022-2023 due to extreme weather. Prices surge amid global crises.

Where will fuel prices go in 2023 with Lula or Bolsonaro?

Whether under Lula or Bolsonaro, Brazil's next president will face high international fuel prices in 2023 and will need to respond quickly, analysts say.

Tereos Brasil to earn US$ 100 million with increased sales to Europe

With two mills newly certified to export ethanol to Europe, Tereos Brasil plans to send 25% of its 2022/23 biofuel output there, the largest volume yet.

World: Agency leaders urge action on food crisis

The heads of the FAO, IMF, World Bank, World Food Programme and WTO have issued a joint call for urgent action on the global food security crisis.

Butter | WMP | SMP Highlights

The dairy market stays calm with volumes down as both sides wait. Sellers are trimming output on weaker demand while buyers sit on more stock than expected.

US Dollar Index Reaches 20 Year High

The US Dollar Index hit a 20-year high of 109 in July 2022 as the Federal Reserve turned more aggressive on rate rises to combat persistent inflation.

Ukraine/UK: Ukrproduct teetering on the edge

The London Stock Exchange has suspended dealing in Ukrproduct shares after the processor cited global challenges and an acute shortage of dairy raw materials.

Vegetable Oil Highlights

Palm oil took several big hits last week, falling back to levels not seen since before the war in Ukraine began and dragging the oilseed complex with it.

Ukrainian farmers complete spring planting

Ukrainian farmers have completed spring planting with a 21% drop in planted area against last year, according to an official notice reported by AgriCensus.

Vegetable Oil Highlights

Uncertainty keeps growing in vegetable oils and the market is largely guessing at what comes next, with the conflict in Ukraine still a dominant influence.

Vegetable Oil Highlights

Uncertainty grows week by week as announcements keep arriving and the oilseed complex swings on news and sentiment, led by Indonesian export policy.

Vegetable Oils Highlights

With activity limited across most vegetable oil markets, news and sentiment still lead over fundamentals, and the USDA estimates have shifted the tone.

Ukraine exports over half a million tonnes of vegetable oils in April

Ukraine exported 61,007 tonnes of vegetable oils by rail last month, AgriCensus reports, as the blockade of deep-sea ports forces crops onto the railways.

Vegetable Oils Highlights

Global vegetable oil markets remain highly susceptible to news and sentiment, and with so much news arriving at once the true outlook is hard to read.

Vegetable Oils Highlights

After weeks of rapid price movement the biggest jumps look to be behind us, though the short-term direction of vegetable oil markets remains uncertain.

Vegetable Oil Highlights

The invasion of Ukraine has tightened vegetable oil markets already short on production, and security of supply has become the issue for anyone needing product.

Vegetable Oil Highlights

The invasion of Ukraine is being felt worldwide, with crude oil soaring, prices rising broadly, and the availability of many grains and crops falling.

Weekly market analysis

Week 9: a week of violence on Ukrainian soil has brought life there to a halt, with no clear indication of when things will change. The market consequences.

Dairy Highlights

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is already being felt worldwide, from political uncertainty and sanctions to rising costs. What it means for dairy markets.