European egg prices are falling across all categories this fortnight, driven by rising imports from Eastern Europe and Turkey, approaching seasonal demand weakness, and a record wave of pullet placements that will translate into meaningful additional supply from late summer. But the correction is uneven, and the near-term picture just got more complicated.
A historic heat dome has settled over Western and Central Europe, with temperatures running 12 to 16°C above seasonal norms. For laying hens, the heat reduces production rates and egg quality. It also suppresses flock immunity, increasing vulnerability to the HPAI and Newcastle Disease outbreaks still circulating across the continent. Free-range and organic eggs face the greatest direct exposure: outdoor-access systems cannot shield birds the way barn or caged flocks can, and these are already the tightest, hardest-to-source categories in the market.
The broader price direction is still downward. Caged eggs for retail fell 10.53% week-on-week, barn eggs fell 7.84%, and free-range fell 5.20%. Barn eggs for industry dropped 12.60%. Whole egg liquid fell 9.52%. European Commission data shows more than 20 million pullets were placed in the EU in March alone, roughly 174% above the two-year average. An estimated 375 million additional eggs are expected to become available in Europe by the end of June. Argentina used its full 2026 zero-tariff EU export quota within weeks of the Mercosur deal entering into force on 1 May, joining Ukraine and Turkey in adding import pressure to standard categories.
Disease continues to weigh on certified supply. Close to 150,000 birds were lost across four new HPAI and Newcastle Disease outbreaks last week. Poland’s 2026 HPAI total has reached nearly 9.65 million commercial birds. Newcastle Disease has spread to Spain’s Valencia region and Latvia. The Dutch Cabinet is advancing mandatory HPAI vaccination for laying hens following field trial results showing 0% mortality in doubly-vaccinated flocks, but the programme will not provide supply relief this season.
The US picture runs the other way
While Europe corrects from a supply deficit, the US is managing a surplus. Around 100 million more shell eggs are available than at the same point last year, after flock recovery from the 2024-25 HPAI crisis moved faster than demand could absorb. Shell egg demand last week ran approximately 21% below the same period last year. USDA cage-free white eggs fell 30% week-on-week to 28 cents per dozen. Seven consecutive weeks without a commercial HPAI outbreak have removed the main supply risk that kept buyers cautious earlier in the year. The US is now directing surplus to export markets: South Korea placed its first US egg order in over two years this month, purchasing more than 2.2 million fresh eggs.
The full Vesper report covers the European category breakdown, disease update, feed cost outlook, and the US wholesale-to-retail price spread: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/3040