The two big Western egg markets are moving in opposite directions. In Europe, the price slide that began after Easter carried into another week, but it is losing pace, perhaps the first hint the market is nearing a floor. Across retail grades the falls stayed in the high single digits week-on-week, with organic eggs down the most. The cause is plain seasonal weakness: summer holidays and hot weather have thinned household demand, leaving more eggs unsold. Even so, consumption is still high and summer price levels remain historically firm. Producers are coming down from an exceptional spring, not collapsing.
Two things are worth watching in Europe. Breakers are expected to rebuild stocks and step up powder production in the coming weeks, which could put a floor under the whole market. And bird flu pressure this summer is running well below last year, so there is no disease-driven supply shock to offset the demand lull.
The United States is the mirror image. A demand-led rally has now run for a second week, with USDA wholesale prices for large white eggs roughly tripling from very low early-July levels. The firmness is sharpest at the top of the size curve: persistent heat has cut feed intake and pulled down average egg weight, leaving fewer large eggs to go around. Combined shell and breaking stocks have fallen to their lowest since November, larger retail chains have stepped back in with real volume, and exports to South Korea are adding a quiet pull.
Disease has also returned to the US picture. An HPAI outbreak in Utah has spread to roughly 275,000 more birds, making July the heaviest month for bird losses since April, just as inventories tighten.
Vesper’s near-term read is a soft European market close to its floor and a firm US market with a bullish bias. The turning points, and what could cap the US rally, are set out in full on the platform.
