Malaysia’s August MPOB data came in bearish. Stocks rose 7.5% to 2.82 million tonnes, production climbed 1.3% to 1.82 million tonnes, and exports fell 7.5% to 1.3 million tonnes. BMD crude palm oil for October settled at MYR 4,717/mt against MYR 4,816/mt a week earlier, and the January contract eased to MYR 5,052/mt from MYR 5,214/mt. Market participants see a further stock build as possible in September on rising production, comfortable Indian and Chinese stocks, and favorable soy oil prices.
Q4 is where the view changes. November and December production could be worse than usual on weather and lower fertilizer application, and B50 demand should be supportive: Indonesia says trial results look good, 94% of fuel stations already carry the grade, and official sales must start in October. Vesper’s estimates put Indonesian exports 1.4% below last year for January to August, partly on higher domestic use. El Nino remains a bullish factor for deferred contracts, with a lack of rain consistently reported in Indonesia.
Europe has a nearer problem. Drought across parts of the region is threatening late summer rapeseed sowing, raising doubts over whether farmers will expand acreage despite strong prices, with area at risk of falling particularly in France and little rain forecast over the coming fortnight. MATIF rapeseed for November slipped to EUR 552/mt from EUR 556/mt, while crude rapeseed oil FOB Dutch Mill held at EUR 1,240/mt on seasonal RME buying and slower June and July crush.
Sunflower oil moved sideways at the 6 Ports benchmark. Ukraine and Russia are reportedly adjusting logistics around Black Sea disruption, not without lost volume and added cost, and APK-Inform trimmed its Ukrainian sunflower oil export forecast by only 100,000 tonnes to 5.73 million. Turkiye may raise sunflower seed imports to as much as 2 million tonnes this season, around 500,000 tonnes above last. The market is in no rush to cover, with Trump indicating that an energy bombing moratorium looks possible, though there is little proof of it so far.
CBOT soybean oil for September eased to 69.36 cents/lb from 70.18, with USDA putting the crop at 4.535 billion bushels on a 52.8 bushel yield, above the Reuters poll. Chinese buying ahead of the Trump and Xi meeting on 24 September is providing a floor, though funds are historically long and exposed if the news turns.
In the lauric complex the two oils have separated. Palm kernel oil CIF Rotterdam climbed to $2,190/mt from $2,068/mt even as the FOB Malaysia price eased, while crude coconut oil CIF Rotterdam held at $2,075/mt. Philippine and Indonesian coconut oil exports ran 22.7% above last year for January to July, and palm kernel oil exports from Malaysia and Indonesia were 14.8% below.
How those Q4 calls sit against the machine learning trend is set out in Vesper’s oils and fats analysis.
