India news — Vesper

India's duty-free sugar imports lose their appeal

India approved 1 MMT of duty-free raw sugar imports, but mills may take only half of it. EU output is set to fall almost 20% as drought hits beet yields.

Basmati climbs on a 40% kharif shortfall

Indian basmati rates rose through August as kharif output came in around 40% below normal, with mills and mandis holding almost no old paddy to fall back on.

Thai cane area at risk from higher tapioca prices

Thailand's 2026/27 cane area looks set to shrink as tapioca pays better, and the mills are turning to white sugar exports for the rest of the year.

Turmeric's third rally in a row ends the same way

Turmeric rallied and gave it back for the third fortnight running, even with carryover stock down to 5 lakh bags against 140 lakh bags of annual demand.

India moves toward its first major sugar imports since 2017

India is weighing a cut to its 100% sugar import tax as a weak monsoon threatens next season's cane crop, with global prices already firming.

Palm oil's forward curve breaks above MYR 5,000 while spot eases

Palm oil's March contract broke above MYR 5,000 a tonne even as the spot month eased, while Brent's climb past $90 lifted soybean and rapeseed oil.

Macadamia crop grows 11%, almond kernels come in small

Global Trading's August tree nut report has the macadamia crop up 11% and pressuring prices, while small first almond kernels push that market higher.

Smaller cashew and pistachio crops meet a macadamia rebound

ofi's July update puts the cashew crop 10% to 12% below last year and the 2026 pistachio crop near half of 2025, while hazelnut supply stays comfortable.

Typhoon Dolphin's backlog outlasts the storm

Typhoon Dolphin has cleared the Zhejiang coast, but Ningbo and Shanghai backlogs, a record-low Rhine and new EU packaging rules keep shippers under pressure.

China's ports reopen. The shipping backlog does not.

Typhoon Dolphin has passed, but the container backlog at Ningbo-Zhoushan and Shanghai lands on an already tight August for shippers.

El Niño risk spreads across sugar-growing regions, lifting prices

Sugar futures rose 3.8% as El Niño intensifies, threatening crops in Brazil, India, Thailand and the EU just as the 2026/27 balance tightens.

India's spice markets share one problem: thin carryover stock

Cumin, coriander, turmeric, chilli, pepper and cardamom each moved on a different trigger, but India's spice markets share one thin carryover stock problem.

India freight congestion deepens: blank sailings become the new normal

Container shortages and blanked sailings at Nhava Sheva and Mundra are delaying exports and pushing peak season surcharges sharply higher on the Europe route.

Why sugar prices held steady through a volatile week

Raw sugar futures stayed under 14.70 cents a pound even as oil markets swung wildly, with EU beet yield cuts and Brazilian crushing delays in focus.

Reefer space, monsoon ports and a low Rhine: this week's freight pressure points

Shypple flags three freight pressure points for food shippers: sold-out reefer space, monsoon and typhoon port delays, and a Rhine too low for full barges.

Sugar eases as India's monsoon catches up

Sugar prices have eased as India's monsoon narrowed its rainfall deficit, pulling weather risk premium out of the market against a firmer longer-term backdrop.

Palm oil holds firm on stronger crude and festive demand hopes

Palm oil firmed this week as Brent crude climbed and Indian festive demand built, even as Indonesia's biofuel mandate timeline softened.

Coriander leads a spice rally on thin arrivals and Hormuz optimism

Coriander rose about 9% on thin Baran arrivals, leading a broad Indian spice rally as US-Iran talks lifted hopes the Strait of Hormuz would reopen to trade.

White sugar rallies on weather risk while physical prices sit still

White sugar futures rallied to $475/mt on El Niño and heatwave risk to crops in India and the EU, even as physical prices stayed calm on comfortable supply.

Freight update: ocean rates near the top, new emission costs from July 1

Asia to North Europe ocean freight rates look to be peaking after six weeks of gains, as capacity stays tight and new EU emission surcharges take effect July 1.

California almonds firm up as May shipments beat expectations

The California almond market is holding firm heading into the close of the crop year, after a May position report that came in stronger than the trade...

New Sathi crop bends old basmati prices, but the floor holds

The arrival of new Sathi paddy reset India's basmati rice market in early June. May had ended with exporters finding confidence and mills refusing to offer...

Thin arrivals support Indian spices, but demand won't chase

India's spice complex spent the first half of June stuck in the same standoff. Arrivals kept thinning across most of the major mandis, yet buyers refused to ...

Thai rice up 25%, wheat swings 40 EUR in a month: grains reprice across the board

Thai rice prices rose between 16 and 25 percent in May, with parboiled rice A1 leading the move from 220.73 to 275.61 USD/mt. But the month was not only a...

Cumin finds its floor while coriander supply tightens

India's spice markets spent the second half of May waiting on buyers rather than supply, and this fortnight produced a rare clear signal in cumin: a named...

Basmati paddy is gone at Indian trading centres; mills are paying up for what remains

India's basmati paddy supply has effectively run out at every major northern trading centre. Arrivals at Haryana, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and...

Sugar's 2026/27 deficit is confirmed, but the size gap between forecasters is enormous

The International Sugar Organization published its first estimate for the 2026/27 crop year this week, projecting a global sugar deficit of 262,000 tonnes....

India's spice markets have a supply story, but buyers aren't listening yet

Six Indian spice categories. Six versions of the same situation: supply is genuinely tight, but the buyers have gone quiet. Cumin arrivals at Unjha fell...

California almond shipments beat March expectations, Turkey absorbs Middle East rerouting

California almond shipments outperformed expectations in March. Total shipments reached 257.99 million lbs, well above industry estimates of around 225...

Indian spice markets caught between tight supply and stalled export demand

Indian spice markets are showing a consistent pattern across the complex this fortnight. Supply is tight, sometimes severely so, but demand-side pressures...

El Niño risk reshapes sugar's 2026/27 supply outlook

Raw sugar edged higher this week, supported by Brazil's planned anhydrous ethanol blending rate increase from 30% to 32% (pending formal approval at a CNPE...

Gulf shipping disruption reshapes Indian spice export flows

The ongoing conflict in West Asia and the resulting disruption in the Strait of Hormuz are reshaping export flows across multiple Indian spice categories,...

Indian basmati prices climb on tight supply and Gulf shipping uncertainty

Indian basmati prices have moved higher over the past three weeks, with 1509 Steam rising to USD 90 to USD 91/quintal from USD 82 to USD 83/quintal at the...

Soy and palm oils lead vegetable oil gains on biofuel policy and crude rebound

Soybean oil and palm oil led gains across the vegetable oil complex last week, supported by a rebound in Brent crude and further reinforcement of biofuel...

Sugar retreats from March highs on easing geopolitical risk

Global prices pull back The Sugar No. 11 raw price stood at $13.88/lb and No. 5 white at $424/mt as of April 14. The reversal reflects bearish underlying...

Fuel surcharges climb and containers pile up as Strait of Hormuz disruption deepens

The ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is creating mounting pressure across global ocean and air freight markets, with emergency fuel surcharges...

European egg shortage deepens ahead of Easter as disease outbreaks hit supply

Europe's egg market is under severe pressure with Easter just 15 days away. A combination of HPAI and Newcastle Disease outbreaks across key producing...

Why a $100 oil price isn't lifting sugar markets

Crude oil briefly touched $100/barrel following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a move that would normally push ethanol economics higher and redirect...

Sugar market forecast: raw, white, sweeteners

The sugar market in 2026 is operating in a surplus environment, but the story is more nuanced than that headline suggests. Energy market dynamics, Brazilian ...

Sugar markets stabilise after Q1 surplus pressure, with Brazil and energy dynamics shaping the outlook

Raw and white sugar both spent most of Q1 under surplus pressure before stabilising and recovering into early March as energy markets strengthened. The...

High EU sugar stocks keep market under pressure

EU sugar stocks reach the highest level in three years as the beet campaign ends. Energy costs and global market developments remain key...

How the Middle East conflict is moving commodity markets

As the Middle East conflict disrupts the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude tops $105, find out how it's moving prices across commodity markets.

Weather anomalies raise risks across key sugar regions

Unusual weather patterns across Europe, Brazil, India and China raise production risks for sugarbeet and sugarcane as temperature and...

Sugar prices near multi-year lows as global surplus holds, crude volatility adds uncertainty

Sugar prices touched multi-year lows in mid-February before a partial recovery linked to crude oil gains. The 2025/26 surplus remains...

Tree nut markets in early 2026: cashews, macadamias, almonds, and pecans

Tree nut market update February 2026: cashews, macadamias, almonds, and pecans Meta description: From firm cashew prices post-TET to pecan...

US-Iran tensions push Brent crude higher, lifting vegetable oil prices

Rising geopolitical risk lifts vegetable oil prices in week 9 Meta description: Brent crude oil prices climbed on US-Iran tension concerns...

Sugar markets hit five-year lows as global surplus weighs on prices

Raw sugar prices fell to their lowest since October 2020 as a 1–5 MMT global surplus weighs on markets, European stocks climb to 9.3 MMT...

Palm oil prices decline on weak February exports; POC conference flags 2026 supply risks

Palm oil prices declined to $1,030/mt amid poor early-February export data and the Lunar New Year, while the POC Malaysia conference...

WPC80 shortage intensifies with producers in control of pricing and allocation

Global whey protein concentrate 80 market reaches critical tightness with structural shortage affecting all whey products. Producers control pricing as domestic

India's soybean oil duty cut set to reshape vegetable oil import dynamics

India's planned reduction in soybean oil import duties under US trade agreement expected to reshape procurement patterns and intensify competition across palm,

U.S. Treasury's 45Z guidance tilts biofuel policy toward North American crop oils

New 45Z biofuel guidance requires fuels to use exclusively U.S., Canada, and Mexico feedstocks, removing ILUC penalties and supporting CBOT...

Palm oil prices rise on strong January exports as Indian buyers shift from soybean oil

Palm oil prices rose to $1,051/mt on strong Malaysian January exports up 8-10%, while Indian buyers cancelled soybean oil shipments...

India's sugar production jumps 22% while global surplus widens to 4.7 million tonnes

India's sugar production increased 22% to 15.9 million tonnes through mid-January while the global surplus widened to 4.7 million tonnes...

Brazilian sugar mills drop allocation to 35.5% in seventh consecutive fortnight decline

Brazilian sugar allocation declined for seventh consecutive fortnight to 35.5%, down from 44.6% last year, raising questions about 2026/27...

Indian importers secure 150,000 metric tons monthly of South American soy oil

Indian buyers commit to purchasing over 150,000 metric tons of South American soybean oil monthly from April to July 2025, driven by...

Egg markets face dual pressure from avian flu outbreaks and rising energy costs

Germany reports 25 farm cases, France 33 infections, Netherlands culls 62,000 hens as Arctic weather increases heating demand with sharp...

European sugar processors announce 2026 acreage cuts following stock accumulation

European processors announce larger-than-expected acreage reductions for 2026 while Brazilian mills conclude early with 120 units finished...

Palm oil prices decline on weaker crude oil and slower Malaysian shipments

BMD crude palm oil declines as Malaysian shipments drop 19% in November while soybean oil faces pressure from China trade concerns and...

Coffee futures fall 16.55 cents amid partial US tariff relief

Coffee futures fell to $376.6/lb this week as the White House announced tariff exemptions that excluded Brazil and India. Markets expected...

Bullish mood for palm and rivals after the IPOC Conference in Indonesia

BMD palm oil prices reach $993/mt following IPOC conference discussions on production declines, Indonesian land seizures, and biodiesel...

Palm oil drops $50/mt on B50 doubts and weak demand

Palm oil falls to $974/mt as concerns grow over delayed B50 implementation and rising Malaysian stocks. Indian buyers shift to cheaper...

Raw sugar prices hit four-year lows on surplus concerns

Raw sugar futures drop to 14.37 cents per pound, the lowest since April 2021. Brazilian production forecasts and Indian export potential...

European sugar prices trade below import parity while 2026 acreage faces potential cuts

European sugar prices trade below €586/tonne import parity as early data shows 3% acreage reduction expected for 2026.

Indonesia's B50 biodiesel program could reshape palm oil supply in 2026

Indonesia's proposed B50 biodiesel program may restrict palm oil exports, requiring 3 million additional metric tons.

Dry European weather and China frost risk test global grain outlook

European grain regions face dry conditions while China's corn belt braces for frost. Latest global crop production analysis shows stable...

Palm oil prices strengthen as Malaysian stocks tighten and Trump signals renewed China trade talks

Palm oil prices strengthened in October as Malaysian stocks tighten and Trump signals soybeans will be key in China talks.

European sugar prices fall below import parity amid 2025 harvest season

European white sugar prices for 2026 delivery have fallen below import parity as harvest progresses. Analysis of pricing dynamics...

Record global grain production pressures prices across wheat, corn and barley markets

Global grain markets face downward pressure as record wheat, corn and barley production forecasts overwhelm seasonal patterns.

Argentina's tax holiday triggers massive soybean sales, pressuring global vegetable oil markets

Argentina's temporary export tax suspension triggered 1.3M tons of soybean sales to China and 300K tons of soybean oil to India...

Palm oil markets face competing pressures as policy shifts collide with tightening supply signals

BMD crude palm oil declined to $1,026/mt as Argentina's temporary tax suspension triggered soybean oil sales, while Malaysian production...

Raw sugar futures break below 16 cents as Brazilian mills weigh ethanol shift

Sugar futures drop to 15.9 cents amid supply pressures and negative positioning, while Brazilian mills weigh shifting to more profitable...

Palm oil prices rise on stronger crude oil and rival vegetable oils

Palm oil prices increased to MYR 4,383/mt driven by stronger Brent crude and rival oils, though gains remain limited amid complex vegetable oil dynamics.

Global dairy markets tumble as demand weakness triggers widespread price declines

Dairy markets face sharp declines as demand weakness triggers widespread selling. Butter approaches critical $2/lb level while milk powder prices fall over 5% a

Trump tariffs begin in India, with rice, dairy, and tea amongst products impacted

US tariffs of 50% on most imports from India kick in today, affecting key commodities like basmati rice, spices, pulses, tea and dairy.

Brazil cuts sugar production forecasts as yields decline

Brazil's Center-South region trims sugar output estimates to 40.9-41 million tonnes due to lower agricultural yields and declining TRS...

Indonesian palm oil stocks remain at normal levels as production exceeds estimates

Indonesian palm oil stocks fall to 1.4 million metric tons in July 2025 - the lowest in years. The supply tightness is created by...

Sugar contract negotiations see delayed activity in European market this year

European sugar contract negotiations lag behind historical patterns as elevated 2024 production levels create higher stock availability...

Sugar prices drop to 16 cents as Brazil's Center-South production picks up pace

Sugar prices decline to near 16 cents/lb driven by Brazil's Center-South production increase and potential Indian export expansion.

CBOT soybean prices reach new lows amid China demand concerns

CBOT soybean prices hit new lows at 969 cents/bushel as China plans 10MT import cuts. Weather volatility expected in August...

Increased inventories in the palm oil market due to slower exports and strong production in Malaysia

Malaysian palm oil inventories rise as production increases 5.52% while exports decline 9.23%. CPO prices drop to $983/mt.

Tracking Trump’s US agri-commodity trade tariffs

US President Donald Trump is set to implement taxes as high as 50% on agricultural imports unless deals can be negotiated before August 1.

Vegetable oil markets show mixed signals as laurics reach historic highs

Latest vegetable oil market analysis reveals coconut oil reaching crisis levels at $2,700/mt while palm oil gains on reduced US tariffs.

USDA drastically revises soybean oil outlook as biofuel regulations reshape US demand

USDA projects record 15.5 billion pounds soybean oil for biofuels, cuts exports from 1.7B to 700M bushels. Palm oil and sunflower oil rally.

How rising coconut oil prices are driving up ice cream costs this summer

Rising coconut oil prices have pushed the cost of ice cream and production to soaring levels. What's behind the increase?

Vegetable oil markets rally as US biodiesel regulations and tariff threats reshape global trade

Palm oil and soybean oil rally as US limits biodiesel credits to North American feedstocks. Tariffs threaten global trade flows.

Oils sector calm for now: 3 key takeaways from Israel-Iran conflict so far

Oil prices climbed Wednesday after Trump announced China can continue buying Iranian oil. Analysis of Middle East tensions, vegetable oils volatility, biofuel m

Vegetable oil prices surge as geopolitical tensions and biofuel mandates drive market volatility

Vegetable oil markets surge as Brent crude hits $73.23/barrel amid Israel-Iran conflict and EPA proposes higher biofuel targets.

Sugar prices hit four-year low as global surplus outlook emerges

Sugar futures hit lowest levels since 2021 as global surplus emerges. Brazil production recovers while European markets face mixed signals.

Vegetable oil markets face supply uncertainty as rapeseed crops disappoint

Rapeseed crops disappoint as EU production cut to 18.6M tons. Palm oil pressured by Malaysian inventory while soy complex gains on energy rally.

Global Vegetable Oil markets face tariff turbulence and weather uncertainty

Vegetable oil prices volatile as 50% EU tariffs flip daily while weather threatens crops. Palm, soy, rapeseed & sunflower oil analysis + AI forecasts.

Sugar market analysis: Short-term volatility amidst long-term pressure

Vesper's latest sugar market analysis reveals short-term price support from Brazil's 53% production drop, while long-term bearish pressure looms from India and

Whey protein markets: diverging paths between concentrates and sweet whey powder

Latest whey market analysis reveals supply constraints driving WPC80 and WPI prices, while sweet whey powder buyers remain hesitant ahead of Q2.

RK Singhal says CPO should decrease by $50/mt to attract Indian demand

Palm oil trading volumes decline as prices remain uncompetitive. Vesper forecasts CPO at $1,000/mt from April.

Vegetable oils market analysis – week 8: palm oil prices drop amid lower Indian imports

Palm oil prices drop as India’s imports hit a 14-year low, while Indonesia’s exports surge. Get the latest market insights.

The Global Impact of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) on the Dairy Market

Explore the impact of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) on the global dairy market, from price shifts and buyer preferences to trade bans.

Global Sugar Market Update: Pressure on global prices persists

Pressure on global sugar prices, production declines in Brazil & Europe, and the outlook for 2025. Stay informed with Vesper.

Palm Oil and Palm Olein Prices in India Have Reached Their Peak – According to RKS Insights

India's import duties on edible oils aim to boost domestic production, with a 20% customs duty on crude oils like palm, and soybean.

EUDR-compliant S.G. Low Moah Crude Palm Oil Benchmark Rises Week-Over-Week

Discover the latest trends driving Vesper's EUDR-compliant S.G. Low Moah Crude Palm Oil Benchmark upwards.

India's Import Duty Hike: Impact on Global Vegetable Oil Prices

India raises import duties on edible oils, impacting palm oil and global vegetable oil prices. Download our market highlights for free.

Rising Global Sugar Deficit Forecasted

Discover how recent policy shifts in India and severe fires in Brazil are impacting sugar supply - forecasted deficit of 3.58 MMT for 2024/25.

Is the Global Sugar Market on the Brink Amid Mounting Uncertainties?

Explore the latest insights on the global sugar market's volatility amid Brazil's drought and policy uncertainties in India.

How will India’s and Brazil’s Sugar Production Projections Impact Global Prices?

Learn how India’s and Brazil’s sugar production forecasts may impact global prices, and explore Vesper’s price forecast predictions.

Weather Drives Volatility in CBOT Soybean Prices: Discover Vesper's AI-Driven Price Forecasts for the Next Six Months

Discover how weather and geopolitical events are impacting CBOT soybean prices, and learn what Vesper's price forecasts are predicting.

Early signs of trouble ahead in the global sugar market

The sugar market sees a price rise due to concerns over CS Brazil's 24/25 sugar output potentially falling short from early drought.

Weather shifts ahead: La Niña’s impact on the global sugar market in 2024

Discover how La Niña's 80% likelihood in the second half of 2024 can impact the global sugar market production.

Prices plunge in the sugar market, as supply concern fades

Sugar prices fell sharply last week, returning to January 2023 levels as supply concerns. Get detailed insights on price changes here.

Diverging production outputs from global sugar markets

Dubai & Datagro Conferences reveal a lower cane availability in CS Brazil, while India's pivotal export changes affect global sugar prices.

Global sugar prices: a temporary standstill or a prelude to change?

Global sugar prices staged a substantial recovery in January, driven by industrial buying, dry Brazilian weather, and lower 2024/25 output forecasts.

Palm Oil and Soybean Oil Prices: Latest Updates and Future Projections

Stay updated on palm oil and soybean oil prices, with insights from the latest MPOB report and impact of mineral oil price.

Adjusted Indian sugar production forecast for the 23/24 season due to better-than-expected January yields

Check out the latest sugar yields and their effect on India's sugar production forecasts - a narrowing gap in sugar production.

Vegetable oils, except palm oil, have weakened since the last report, influenced by the Red Sea crisis and a bumper soybean supply.

Impact of Red Sea Crisis and Bumper Supply of Soybeans: Weakend Vegetable oils, compared to the previous report.