The vegetable oil complex pulled in four directions at once this week, and the clearest move was in sunflower.
Sunflower oil prices kept rising as the market felt the physical shortage. India imported only 109,000 mt in September against a multi-year average of 243,000 mt. Production in Ukraine and Russia slowed because processors could not run at normal rates on the logistics they have, and exports stayed low with them. Oil World estimates shared at Globoil put lost sunflower oil exports from the Black Sea disruption at 300,000 to 350,000 mt a month. Ukraine, Russia and Kazakhstan are reportedly sitting on significant stocks, and Ukraine wants to export them, but there is still no progress on the diplomatic track.
Palm oil exports firmed the market. Malaysian shipments over 1 to 20 October jumped 78.4% against the same period the month before, according to AmSpec. Crude oil helped too, with Brent reaching a new high on attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.
Soybean oil futures went the other way on the ongoing US harvest and heavy imports of competing feedstocks, even though the September NOPA crush came in at a 13-month low and soyoil stocks hit a near 12-year low. Rapeseed slid as lower soybean prices and the end of the Canadian canola harvest cooled the complex. Olive oil rebounded slightly but faces comfortable carryouts in Spain and Italy.
Read the full global oils and fats market analysis here.
