Global prices pull back

The Sugar No. 11 raw price stood at $13.88/lb and No. 5 white at $424/mt as of April 14. The reversal reflects bearish underlying fundamentals: ample global supply, rising exportable surpluses from key origins, and India’s decision to maintain its export quota despite projected production below domestic consumption.

Brazil: new season opens slowly

The 2026/27 Center-South season started April 1, but rainfall has delayed milling progress. Early estimates point to a crush of 620–625 million mt and sugar output of 40–42 million mt, with the production mix expected to shift toward sugar depending on price evolution.

Brazil’s full 2025/26 season closed at 34.10 million mt, down approximately 3% from 35.11 million mt in 2024/25. In the first seven working days of April, shipments came in at 412,000 tonnes, down 24% year-on-year. Chinese import demand remains a supportive counter-factor, with imports up 48.8% year-on-year since October 2025 at 2.29 million mt accumulated, with full-season imports forecast at 5.0 million mt.

El Niño risk rises

NOAA has raised the El Niño probability for the May–July quarter from 45% to 61%, with the phenomenon expected to persist through at least November–January 2027. A 25% probability of a very strong intensity event by year-end introduces meaningful downside risk to cane yields across key producing regions.

EU beet crop facing multiple pressures

France confirmed its beet area at 379,000 hectares, down 4.6% year-on-year. Dry conditions are adding stress across northern Europe, with rainfall in Poland running 50–78% below average and Germany 40% below average for March. Early aphid colonisation in France, with 18% of monitored plots at damaging threshold levels, is raising virus yellows risk for the new season.

The EU-wide beet area is expected to fall around 7% versus 2025, with total EU27 sugar and ethanol production projected at 15.25–16.25 million mt. The EU-Australia FTA adds 35,000 tonnes of duty-free cane sugar, taking total preferential import access above 1.7 million mt.

Structural tightening ahead

Despite near-term bearish pressure, most forecasting models are converging toward a global deficit in 2026/27, driven by Brazilian mills shifting cane toward ethanol, EU acreage reductions, and India’s revised lower production estimate. El Niño risk adds further uncertainty to an already tightly balanced supply picture.


Read the full sugar market analysis here: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/2887