Brent crude’s climb past $90 a barrel on Middle East tensions is rippling through the vegetable oils complex this week, and the products in it are not all moving the same way.
Palm oil eased on the spot month, with the BMD contract slipping to MYR 4,589 a tonne from MYR 4,631 a week earlier, held back by high Malaysian stocks and recovering Indian stocks. The March contract told a different story, rallying above MYR 5,000 a tonne on El Niño worries and weaker production forecasts for the rest of 2026 and into 2027. Malaysia’s vessel-tracking surveyors disagree on where August demand is heading, one reporting a 3.2% rise in loadings and another a 7.85% drop, while Indonesian exports for the first half of August rose 32% on the same period in July.
Soybean oil jumped on CBOT to 71.44 cents a pound from 69.53 cents, tracking the firmer Brent price alongside bullish NOPA data. Members processed 216.6 million bushels of soybeans in July, up 10.7% on a year earlier, while soybean oil stocks fell to their tightest end-of-month level since October. Rapeseed oil rose to €549 a tonne on MATIF as Ukrainian export volumes look set to nearly halve this month, with ports blocked and Danube shipping disrupted, and as dry soil across the EU and Ukraine threatens the sowing window that opens in the second half of August.
Sunflower oil moved the other way, easing to $1,480 to $1,520 a tonne for the August and September FOB 6-ports contracts even as the rest of the complex firmed. The market is leaning on an expected large Black Sea crop and a good European harvest, though Black Sea export logistics remain unresolved, and some traders think Ukraine ends up exporting mainly to Europe, as a price taker, if that persists.
Coconut oil and palm kernel oil firmed on the back of the stronger vegetable oil complex, with palm kernel oil also picking up support from the firmer forward palm curve. Olive oil kept easing in Spain, down to €3,513 a tonne in a quiet holiday market, even as July shipment data still points to a strong season and mill and packer stocks approach 569,000 tonnes.
This news article is part of a broader Vesper market analysis on the global oils and fats market. For the full market analysis, visit: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/3341
