Global Trading puts macadamia among the lowest-priced tree nuts on the market. It is currently cheaper than cashew kernels, Brazil nut kernels, almonds, hazelnut kernels, pistachios and pecan kernels, which makes it an unusually easy nut to build a promotion around. Supply is not a concern now and Global Trading does not expect it to become one in the years ahead, with world production still growing. El Niño may have some effect next year, but it is too early to say.
The cashew market is a different shape. Supply and demand are broadly in balance, raw cashew nut prices remain firm, and that keeps kernel prices where they are, so Global Trading sees little room for discounts in the near term. Tanzanian RCN has pushed above USD 2,000 per tonne, which it regards as unsustainable for the general kernel market. India is paying those levels on the back of good crop quality, while Vietnam is only buying for its top-quality kernel customers.
New crop developments are satisfactory so far, though it is too early for a reliable forecast or to assess the El Niño risk, and African sellers are reluctant to offer new crop at this stage. Global Trading expects the market to stay stable in the coming weeks and suggests buyers cover nearby needs now rather than wait for a correction.
Read the full tree nuts market analysis here.
