Raw sugar futures are trading at levels last seen in February 2025, when the global market was in a deeper deficit. The March 2027 NY11 contract settled at 21.11 US cents a pound on 13 October, and the December white sugar futures contract closed at 562 USD/mt. Vesper’s analysis ties much of the recent price action to production updates from Brazil’s Center-South, where unusually wet conditions, often associated with El Niño, have slowed the harvest.
Rain cuts into the crush
MAPA estimates put the sugarcane crush in the first half of September at 30.16 MMT, down 34.2% from a year earlier. Season-to-date sugar output has reached 26.07 MMT, 14.4% below last year, while ethanol output is 8.7% higher. More rain is expected as El Niño strengthens into the fourth quarter, which leaves real uncertainty over how much sugar the rest of the season will produce and how much unharvested cane will roll into the 2027/28 supply outlook.
Brazilian mills have used the higher prices to lock in next season. Their 2027/28 hedges nearly doubled from 5.32 MMT in July to 10.3 MMT by the end of September, Sugaronline reports, at an average price of 18.16 US cents a pound.
Funds keep buying
Managed money added 29,543 lots to its NY11 net long in the week to 6 October, taking the position to 257,364 lots. That is a large weekly purchase, though smaller than in August, when funds flipped from net short to net long in a single week. Firmer oil prices and a weaker dollar have also helped lift sugar. Vesper’s analysis notes that holding these levels depends on continued fund interest, and that a long of this size also carries a risk of liquidation.
Elsewhere, ISMA has ruled out Indian exports for 2026/27, and Europe’s new beet campaign has opened with mixed results. The UK NFU estimates that EU prices would need to reach €640 to €660/t EXW in North West Europe before duty-paying CXL imports become viable, and current prices are not yet near that range. The full analysis covers yields by EU country, Brazil’s new ethanol tax measures and the US beet harvest.
