The global sugar supply for the remainder of the year is expected to remain steady, but concerns are mounting for Q1’2024 due to forecasted production drops in Thailand and India. As a consequence, India might halt exports this season, a stark contrast to the previous season’s 6 MMT exports, and Thailand, is projected to export only 4 MMT, down from around 7,5 MMT last crop. These dynamics highlight a potential supply constraint impacting the global sugar market in early 2024.
However, the market outlook is set to experience a shift by Q2. As Brazil is prepping to launch its 24/25 crop by April, the global market is bound to witness an influx of raw sugar, potentially reducing the sugar deficit till the end of 2024.
On the consumption front, raw sugar intake is slowing down due to high prices, with major importers like China and Indonesia delving into their domestic stocks, given the lower domestic prices. For instance, in China, price points would need to hover around 23 cents to stimulate imports, indicating a substantial gap.
Despite this, global sugar consumption is forecasted to ascend to 175 MMT during the 23/24 season, keeping the overall global market sentiment bullish.
Download our Vesper Highlights for free for a more in-depth analysis on the sugar market.