Trade estimates circulating on 30 October put India’s cumin crop at roughly 90 to 92 lakh bags, against about 1.10 crore bags a year earlier, a decline of around 16% to 18%. That shortfall is now closer to trade consensus than rumor, and it gives firmer support to a rally that started in early October. Cumin prices peaked around mid-month, then spent the rest of October in a narrow band instead of giving the gains back. Arrivals at Unjha stayed thin at around 12,000 bags a day, and inquiries from China, Turkey and Syria improved late in the month.
Turmeric supply is tighter still. A trade report on 27 October said nearly 80% of last season’s stock in the major producing markets has already been sold, and the new crop is still some way from arriving in volume. Erode prices swung through the second half of the month, with every pullback shallow and short-lived.
The black pepper market ended October at its firmest levels of the year, with Kochi arrivals at just 15 tonnes a day while uncertainty over Vietnam’s crop unsettled the trade. Big cardamom rallied after reports that only 20% to 30% of this season’s crop had reached the market during peak wedding-season demand, before profit-taking trimmed the gain. Coriander gave back part of its mid-month rise, and red chili barely moved.
Read the full spices market analysis here.
