Thailand’s current crop is in good shape. Above average rainfall across the main growing areas has the country on track for 100 to 110 million tonnes of cane, little changed on last year, even with white leaf disease affecting ratoon plantings in the north east. The problem sits one season further out.
Tapioca prices have reached attractive levels for farmers over the past four months, and that will have shaped planting decisions for the 2026/27 crop, so a smaller cane area should be expected. At the current provisional price of THB860 per tonne, sugarcane is still profitable, just less rewarding than the alternative. Add continuing concern over fertiliser prices and higher labour costs for migrant cane cutters, and the cane price needs to move toward THB1,000 per tonne basis 10ccs if plantings are not to fall significantly.
Trust is the other factor. The government was slow to pay farmers the promised THB120 per tonne for cane cut green rather than burnt, and although a THB430 billion package was pushed through in response, the damage is done. It becomes one more argument for switching crop.
For the rest of this calendar year the mills are pointing their output somewhere else. Beyond raw sugar already contracted for export, the industry is focused on maximising remelt and will principally be a white sugar exporter. Several things push in that direction at once: the sustained high white premium, a shortage of other refined origins with the Strait of Hormuz closed, the likelihood that India absorbs the refined stocks originally earmarked for tolling under its duty free import window, and colour deterioration in raw sugar caused by humidity.
The rest of the region gives buyers little to lean on. The Philippines has finished a 2025/26 crop of 1.85 million tonnes, down 11% on last season’s 2.08 million, with El Nino cited as the reason and imports of around 250,000 tonnes likely needed in the fourth quarter. Australia’s crush has run well despite rain in northern Queensland and CCS is better than last season, yet Canegrowers has cut its estimate from 30.04 million tonnes of cane to 28.7 million without giving a clear reason. China expects another good crop at 12.93 million tonnes white sugar equivalent, though the market there is really two markets, and the gap between them is where the risk to domestic prices sits.
