East Asia’s sugar markets are heading into the new season with weather and policy pulling in different directions. In Thailand, the three-month outlook points to above-average temperatures across cane areas and below-average rainfall outside the north, after a wetter-than-usual May. The crop is currently seen pivoting around 87 million tonnes, held back by costly fertiliser, expensive and scarce labour, and a continued shift of acreage from cane to tapioca, where strong Chinese demand and ethanol use keep prices rising while world sugar stays weak.
Energy policy is shaping the picture too. With Gulf supply still disrupted, Thailand holds about 95 days of fuel reserves and is pushing motorists toward E20 blends, priced at THB 36.3 a litre against THB 43.30 for E10. The subsidy fund behind biofuels is close to exhausted and due to wind up in September, though another extension looks likely.
China is carrying a heavy surplus. Production for 2025/26 was raised to 12.8 million tonnes, with Guangxi cane output at a 12-year high, while consumption estimates remain stuck at 15.7 million tonnes. That points to close to 2 million tonnes of surplus stocks, not counting blends and liquid sugar imports, which reached 406,000 tonnes between January and April. Ex-works Guangxi prices sat at CNY 5,400/t for 150 ICUMSA as of late May, and with the stock overhang, cane and beet prices could fall for the next crop year.
In Australia, crushing has started with a cane crop seen above 30 million tonnes, though conditions are uneven across regions. The QSL pool price for the 2025 season stands at 18 cents excluding US quota, near the cost of production. In Indonesia, the government has so far left sugar import procurement alone even as it tightens control over other commodity exports, granting only 3.1 million tonnes of import licences amid a renewed push for self-sufficiency.
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