Energy news — Vesper

Bullish signals stack up across the vegetable oil complex

Brent, palm, soy, rapeseed and sunflower oil are all firming as energy, tariffs and Black Sea disruption stack bullish drivers across the complex.

Why the commodity outlook now hinges on Hormuz and the AI cycle

The second-half commodity outlook hinges on whether the Middle East conflict resolves and the AI investment boom holds, keeping a higher price floor.

Vegetable oils hold steady while Brent slips and Europe overheats

Vegetable oils held firm even as Brent slipped to $73. Palm oil rose on strong Malaysian exports, while a heatwave trimmed the EU rapeseed crop outlook.

White sugar rallies on weather risk while physical prices sit still

White sugar futures rallied to $475/mt on El Niño and heatwave risk to crops in India and the EU, even as physical prices stayed calm on comfortable supply.

Hot weather lifts EU grains while US futures slip

Europe's grain markets firmed over the past two weeks as hot, dry weather raised worries about yields, even as US futures fell under harvest pressure and a...

Palm oil holds firm while Brent slides on US-Iran thaw

Palm oil prices climbed last week even as crude oil kept falling, a sign the market is now taking its lead from biofuel policy and weather risk rather than...

Brazil's bumper crush and softer oil weigh on sugar prices

A strong result from Brazil and weaker oil prices have offset El Niño risk to keep sugar under pressure. Oil fell about 4% over the past month as ceasefire...

Thai rice up 25%, wheat swings 40 EUR in a month: grains reprice across the board

Thai rice prices rose between 16 and 25 percent in May, with parboiled rice A1 leading the move from 220.73 to 275.61 USD/mt. But the month was not only a...

Cocoa rally fades as weak demand meets a bigger Ivorian crop

Cocoa opened last week with a strong rally and then gave it back over consecutive down days, a pattern Martijn Bron attributes to the volatility of the...

Thai cane pivots to tapioca as China's sugar surplus builds

East Asia's sugar markets are heading into the new season with weather and policy pulling in different directions. In Thailand, the three-month outlook...

Indonesia's export overhaul casts shadow over palm oil as Iran peace talks weigh on energy prices

The Indonesian government announced a new export centralization policy for key commodities, including palm oil, effective June 1st, a measure aimed at...

Germany's RED III adoption and higher energy prices lift European biodiesel sharply

European biodiesel markets moved substantially higher in May. FAME 0 rose from $1,382 to $1,500 per tonne compared to the same period last month. UCOME...

Food and beverage costs face a second wave of commodity pressure

The oil market has held above $100 per barrel through May, but the bigger story for food and beverage buyers is what is happening next. Investment funds...

US broiler supply keeps climbing while breast meat demand cools

US chick placements totaled more than 1.18 billion over the six weeks ending May 2nd, a 2.8% increase from the same period a year earlier, according to LEAP ...

Energy market strength lifts sugar to one-month high

Raw sugar prices extended their climb over the past week. The NY11 July contract closed at a one-month high of 15.37 USc/lb on 5 May, supported by spillover ...

Brent strength and biofuel mandates push vegetable oil complex higher

Vegetable oil prices moved higher across most of the complex last week, supported by higher Brent crude prices and continued biofuel mandate momentum. July...

Cocoa futures climb on El Niño concerns despite record surplus outlook

London July cocoa futures have risen by approximately 10% over the past two weeks, driven by FMCG buying tied to El Niño headlines, despite the 2025/26...

EU partially suspends sugar IPP imports for one year from May 27

The European Commission's Management Committee for sugar voted on April 30 to partially suspend Inward Processing Procedure (IPP) imports for one year, with ...

El Niño risk reshapes sugar's 2026/27 supply outlook

Raw sugar edged higher this week, supported by Brazil's planned anhydrous ethanol blending rate increase from 30% to 32% (pending formal approval at a CNPE...

Rapeseed market firms after Germany adopts RED III

European rapeseed prices climbed this week, supported by Germany's adoption of Renewable Energy Directive III (RED III) alongside tight EU stocks, strong...

Energy costs drive starch prices higher across wheat, corn and tapioca

Wheat, tapioca and corn starch prices all rose month on month in April, with rising energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict putting pressure on...

Energy shock threatens to lift EU food inflation to 5 to 10% by 2027

The European food industry is heading into a renewed inflationary period, with the energy price shock from the recent Iran conflict likely to pass through...

Southeast Asia biodiesel mandates reshape palm oil supply outlook

Three major Southeast Asian palm oil producers are stepping up biodiesel blending mandates in moves that will reshape the feedstock picture for global...

Cocoa prices break 2,500 resistance despite record fund short position

Short covering ahead of grindings data The rally appears linked to short covering by funds ahead of major global grinding updates, potentially on...

Coffee prices break below $2.90/lb support on Middle East uncertainty

Coffee futures ended the week at 286 US cents per pound, down 12.35 cents from the prior Tuesday, as a deteriorating risk environment weighed on prices....

US broiler exports slip in early 2026 with domestic dark meat demand providing support

US broiler exports started 2026 on a muted note, with total shipments in February coming in just below 524 million pounds, falling short of forecasts and...

Vegetable oil prices ease on ceasefire news, palm oil outlook mixed

A two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, announced on April 8, triggered a sharp decline in Brent crude oil, sending immediate...

Middle East conflict drives Brazilian chicken prices higher

Brazilian chicken meat prices have reversed sharply in week 14, ending a bearish trend that had held for several months. Whole bird and cut prices rose...

Cocoa prices stage end-of-quarter rally, but cost pressures cloud the chocolate outlook

Cocoa prices rallied sharply at the end of March, with EU futures gaining 7% in a single session to close at £2,487/mt for the front month May 2026...

Grains hold firm on crude oil support, but markets watch for de-escalation signals

Grain prices across wheat, corn, barley, and soybeans remained elevated this week, with Brent crude oil continuing to provide the primary source of support. ...

Sugar prices edge higher on crude oil rally, but fundamentals stay soft

Sugar prices moved modestly higher this week, driven almost entirely by the sharp rise in crude oil rather than any change in underlying supply and demand...

Vegetable oils rebound on crude surge and biofuel policy shifts

Vegetable oil prices recovered broadly last week, with palm and soybean oil leading gains on the back of firmer Brent crude and new biofuel policy...

Coffee futures break above $3/lb as tight supply and energy costs provide support

Coffee futures prices basis the most active May contract rose 14.15 cents over the week to close at USD 3.07/lb, breaking above the USD 3.00/lb level for...

EU sugar beet farmers face higher costs as energy prices climb

European sugar beet growers are heading into the 2026 planting season with a more challenging cost environment, as diesel and gas prices rise in the wake of ...

Philippine biofuel policy uncertainty weighs on coconut oil prices

Coconut oil prices at origin fell sharply this week, with the EXW Manila benchmark declining to $1,918/mt from $2,271/mt previously, as biofuel producers in ...

Corn and wheat prices climb on energy costs and tighter 2026 supply forecasts

Corn and wheat prices have moved higher over the past two weeks, supported by rising Brent crude oil prices and downward revisions to 2026 global supply...

NFDM prices approach 10-year highs as US supply tightens

US non-fat dry milk (NFDM) prices have continued their upward run, rising a further USD 0.08/lb compared to a week ago, a 4.53% increase. Prices are now...

NFDM prices approach 10-year highs despite record milk surplus

Non-fat dry milk prices rose a further 4.53% this week, leaving them just $0.055/lb below 10-year highs. The move comes against a backdrop of surging milk...

Record Brazilian exports push global poultry prices lower

Global poultry markets are heading into the final week of March under a broadly bearish price signal, with both Brazilian and Thai origins posting...

Wholesale beef prices rally sharply, but correction seen ahead

Wholesale beef prices have been climbing at a rapid pace, with the choice cutout value up nearly $30 over the past three weeks. Every part of the carcass is ...

Why a $100 oil price isn't lifting sugar markets

Crude oil briefly touched $100/barrel following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a move that would normally push ethanol economics higher and redirect...

Palm oil prices climb on B50 speculation and supply concerns

BMD crude palm oil prices rose to $1,176/mt this week, up from $1,123/mt the previous week, supported by a combination of supply-side developments,...

US broiler market: weak export start, steady domestic demand

US broiler exports got off to a slow start in 2026, while domestic dark meat markets have continued to show relative stability. Here is what is shaping the...

European dairy market forecast 2026: milk, butter, smp, wmp, swp, cheeses

The European dairy market in 2026 is not one market, it's a collection of very different stories depending on which product you're buying. Some categories...

European pork market forecast 2026: African Swine Fever in Spain redirects volumes to EU markets, pressuring prices

The EU sow herd is forecast to shrink further in 2026 due to ongoing environmental restructuring in North-Western Europe. Favourable feed prices are...

European raw milk forecast: strong flush adds supply pressure across dairy markets in H1 2026

European raw milk production delivered strong volumes throughout 2025, with output accelerating particularly in the second half of the year. That momentum...

Glucose syrup and dextrose stabilise after 2025 correction, with energy costs the main upside risk

Both glucose syrup and dextrose monohydrate went through a significant correction through 2025, driven by easing corn and wheat feedstock costs, elevated...

Pizza, pasta, savory snack forecast: flour, tomate, chicken, beef, pork, mozzarella, olive oil

For food manufacturers in pizza, pasta, and snacks, H2 2026 brings a mix of near-term stability and building supply-side risks. Some key ingredients are...

Potato starch market outlook 2026: record 2025 harvest drives prices to lowest point since 2024

The main factor behind falling potato starch prices has been the very favourable 2025 crop, which delivered a much larger harvest in the main production...

Rapeseed oil price forcast 2026: Brent crude drives near-term gains, harvest pressure expected from Q2

Crude rapeseed oil prices (FOB Dutch Mill) increased to EUR 1,117/mt from EUR 1,030/mt in January, supported by strong prices for competing vegetable oils...

Rapeseed oil price forecast 2026: Brent crude drives near-term gains, harvest pressure expected from Q2

Crude rapeseed oil prices (FOB Dutch Mill) increased to EUR 1,117/mt from EUR 1,030/mt in January, supported by strong prices for competing vegetable oils...

Sugar market forecast: raw, white, sweeteners

The sugar market in 2026 is operating in a surplus environment, but the story is more nuanced than that headline suggests. Energy market dynamics, Brazilian ...

Sugar markets stabilise after Q1 surplus pressure, with Brazil and energy dynamics shaping the outlook

Raw and white sugar both spent most of Q1 under surplus pressure before stabilising and recovering into early March as energy markets strengthened. The...

Sweet whey powder forecast 2026: European prices overtake US levels as costs rise and Middle East demand accelerates

Sweet whey powder is showing a clear divide between Europe and the United States in early 2026, and that regional divergence has become the defining feature ...

Tomato paste market forecast 2026: Q2 expected stable, but California and energy risks loom for H2

The second quarter of 2026 is expected to see a modest softening in tomato paste prices relative to the firm levels observed at the start of the year. The...

Vegetable oil market forecast: olive, rapeseed, soybean, sunflower, palm, coconut, palm kernel oil

The oils and fats market in 2026 is being pulled in two directions at once. On one side, crop-level fundamentals, large harvests, record stocks in certain...

Brent at $80, $120, or $150: Scenario Analysis of the Impact on Global Commodity Markets

Explore three Brent oil price scenarios ($80, $120, and $150) and their potential impact on global commodity markets.

Vegetable oils rise with Brent before sharp reversal

Vegetable oil prices follow volatile Brent crude moves as palm, soy, rapeseed and sunflower markets react to energy swings and Middle...

Cocoa sector turmoil deepens in Ivory Coast and Ghana

Cocoa sector disruption in Ivory Coast and Ghana deepens as falling prices, unsold beans and payment delays strain farmers and buyers...

High EU sugar stocks keep market under pressure

EU sugar stocks reach the highest level in three years as the beet campaign ends. Energy costs and global market developments remain key...

Coffee futures slip below $3/lb as supply improves, Middle East conflict adds volatility

Arabica coffee futures fell to $2.83/lb as certified stock availability improved and roasters held back purchases. The Middle East conflict...

Ivory Coast brings forward mid-crop season in bid to clear unsold cocoa stocks

Ivory Coast has reclassified March cocoa production as mid-crop, sharply reducing farmgate prices to move unsold stocks. The bearish market...

Sugar prices near multi-year lows as global surplus holds, crude volatility adds uncertainty

Sugar prices touched multi-year lows in mid-February before a partial recovery linked to crude oil gains. The 2025/26 surplus remains...

How escalation around the Strait of Hormuz is reshaping oil shipping

Escalation around the Strait of Hormuz is disrupting global oil shipping, insurance markets, and freight flows as tanker traffic collapses.

Middle East conflict pushes vegetable oil prices higher as freight costs climb

Brent crude's rise following Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz is lifting vegetable oil prices across the board, with freight...

Strait of Hormuz tensions and the short-term outlook for brent crude oil

How Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruptions impact food commodities through energy prices, fertilizer costs, freight, USD strength and market sent

How Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption could impact food commodity market

Explores how Middle East tensions and potential Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions could indirectly influence food commodity markets...

US-Iran tensions push Brent crude higher, lifting vegetable oil prices

Rising geopolitical risk lifts vegetable oil prices in week 9 Meta description: Brent crude oil prices climbed on US-Iran tension concerns...

India's soybean oil duty cut set to reshape vegetable oil import dynamics

India's planned reduction in soybean oil import duties under US trade agreement expected to reshape procurement patterns and intensify competition across palm,

U.S. Treasury's 45Z guidance tilts biofuel policy toward North American crop oils

New 45Z biofuel guidance requires fuels to use exclusively U.S., Canada, and Mexico feedstocks, removing ILUC penalties and supporting CBOT...

Palm oil prices rise on strong January exports as Indian buyers shift from soybean oil

Palm oil prices rose to $1,051/mt on strong Malaysian January exports up 8-10%, while Indian buyers cancelled soybean oil shipments...

Egg markets face dual pressure from avian flu outbreaks and rising energy costs

Germany reports 25 farm cases, France 33 infections, Netherlands culls 62,000 hens as Arctic weather increases heating demand with sharp...

European sugar processors announce 2026 acreage cuts following stock accumulation

European processors announce larger-than-expected acreage reductions for 2026 while Brazilian mills conclude early with 120 units finished...

Palm oil prices decline on weaker crude oil and slower Malaysian shipments

BMD crude palm oil declines as Malaysian shipments drop 19% in November while soybean oil faces pressure from China trade concerns and...

Germany and Netherlands eye policy shifts that could reshape European biodiesel demand

Germany and the Netherlands are evaluating policy changes that would end double counting for advanced biofuels, potentially reshaping...

Germany considers ending UCOME double-counting by January 2026

Germany plans to eliminate advanced biofuel double-counting by January 2026 under RED III implementation, potentially reshaping UCOME...

Indonesia's B50 biodiesel program could reshape palm oil supply in 2026

Indonesia's proposed B50 biodiesel program may restrict palm oil exports, requiring 3 million additional metric tons.

Ukrainian rapeseed export delays drive European oil prices higher

Rapeseed oil prices rise as Ukrainian export disruptions limit supply during harvest season, while Canadian production increases promise...

Palm oil prices rise on stronger crude oil and rival vegetable oils

Palm oil prices increased to MYR 4,383/mt driven by stronger Brent crude and rival oils, though gains remain limited...

Sugar prices drop to 16 cents as Brazil's Center-South production picks up pace

Sugar prices decline to near 16 cents/lb driven by Brazil's Center-South production increase and potential Indian export expansion.

Corn oil prices rise $60-130/MT as Middle East tensions drive up energy and shipping Costs

Corn oil prices increase $60-130/MT from June levels, while global corn production reaches record 1.265 billion metric tons.

CBOT soybean prices reach new lows amid China demand concerns

CBOT soybean prices hit new lows at 969 cents/bushel as China plans 10MT import cuts. Weather volatility expected in August...

Biodiesel prices edge higher as feedstock costs rise amid tariff deadline pressure

FAME0 gains $6/mt to $1,322/mt while UCO prices surge. HVO softens as August tariff deadlines approach. LSGO drops $84/mt on trade war fears.

USDA drastically revises soybean oil outlook as biofuel regulations reshape US demand

USDA projects record 15.5 billion pounds soybean oil for biofuels, cuts exports from 1.7B to 700M bushels. Palm oil and sunflower oil rally.

Biodiesel markets stabilize as "Big Beautiful Bill" reshapes North American feedstock trade

US biofuel law limits feedstocks to North America, challenging Chinese UCO and Brazilian tallow suppliers. LSGO rises $18/mt. Get Vesper's analysis.

How rising coconut oil prices are driving up ice cream costs this summer

Rising coconut oil prices have pushed the cost of ice cream and production to soaring levels. What's behind the increase?

Vegetable oil markets rally as US biodiesel regulations and tariff threats reshape global trade

Palm oil and soybean oil rally as US limits biodiesel credits to North American feedstocks. Tariffs threaten global trade flows.

Biodiesel markets show mixed signals as geopolitical tensions support LSGO prices

FAME0 and UCOME rise on higher LSGO prices while RME drops on harvest pressure. HVO demand could quadruple in Germany.

Vegetable oil markets face pressure as Brent crude weakens and supply forecasts rise

Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed markets decline as Brent crude drops to $67.61/barrel. Get expert analysis on supply forecasts.

Biodiesel prices rebound after sharp decline on Middle East ceasefire

Biodiesel markets recover from ceasefire-driven selloff as European regulations reshape HVO and UCO demand.

Oils sector calm for now: 3 key takeaways from Israel-Iran conflict so far

Oil prices climbed Wednesday after Trump announced China can continue buying Iranian oil. Analysis of Middle East tensions, vegetable oils volatility, biofuel m

Sugar prices under pressure as energy markets shift: What traders need to know

Sugar futures decline as oil prices drop and energy-ethanol dynamics shift. Get expert analysis on Brazil production and EU crop risks.

Vegetable oils market declines as Middle East tensions cool

Palm oil, soy oil, and rapeseed prices fall as crude oil drops $5/barrel amid Israel-Iran ceasefire. Get Vesper's Week 26 market analysis.

Biodiesel prices strengthen on geopolitical tensions and EPA mandate boost

Biodiesel markets strengthen as Iran conflict drives energy costs higher and EPA proposes 5.61B gallon biofuel targets.

Vegetable oil prices surge as geopolitical tensions and biofuel mandates drive market volatility

Vegetable oil markets surge as Brent crude hits $73.23/barrel amid Israel-Iran conflict and EPA proposes higher biofuel targets.

Biodiesel prices surge as ISCC certificate suspension rocks European market

Biodiesel prices surge as ISCC certificate suspension hits major European producer.

Vegetable oil markets face supply uncertainty as rapeseed crops disappoint

Rapeseed crops disappoint as EU production cut to 18.6M tons. Palm oil pressured by Malaysian inventory while soy complex gains on energy rally.

Biodiesel markets caught in regulatory whirlwind as policy uncertainty deepens

Washington's tariff reversals create biodiesel market paralysis. Congressional incentives pending while feedstock flows shift.

Global Vegetable Oil markets face tariff turbulence and weather uncertainty

Vegetable oil prices volatile as 50% EU tariffs flip daily while weather threatens crops. Palm, soy, rapeseed & sunflower oil analysis + AI forecasts.

China's massive Sugar purchases signal market shift as Asian production outlook strengthens

China purchases 2.5M tonnes raw sugar exhausting import quota while Thailand's production outlook strengthens.

Prices hold firm despite LSGO decline

Prices hold firm despite falling LSGO values as Greenergy suspends UK operations and US grants 163 Small Refinery Exemptions.

Global oils & fats market faces headwinds amid economic contraction and supply chain shifts

Explore Week 19's oils & fats market trends: US economy contracts 0.3%, Brent crude falls to $60.23, Malaysian palm stocks rise 15% while Indonesian exports dro

CBOT Soybean Oil Reclaims Premium Over BMD Crude Palm Oil After Prolonged Discount

In a shift observed across the edible oil markets, soybean oil prices have moved above palm oil prices , reversing a trend where palm oil held a higher...

Biodiesel markets react to Trump's tariff pause

Biodiesel markets rebound as Trump pauses tariffs for 90 days while escalating China trade war to 125%.

Global vegetable oil markets disrupted by Trump's 10-50% tariff policy: Palm, Soy, Rapeseed, and Sunflower Oil impacts

Discover how Trump's new tariff policy is disrupting global vegetable oil markets with our expert analysis.

Biodiesel market update: prices decline amid increased Asian supply

Week 8 biodiesel update: Prices drop as Asian imports impact demand. Stay informed on feedstock trends and biofuel policy shifts.

Global Biodiesel and Vegetable Oil Markets See Mixed Movements Amid Political and Economic Developments

Explore the latest trends in biodiesel and vegetable oil markets, including price drops, regulatory updates, and global supply forecasts.

Global Sugar Market Update: Pressure on global prices persists

Pressure on global sugar prices, production declines in Brazil & Europe, and the outlook for 2025. Stay informed with Vesper.

4 Key Factors Driving Biodiesel Prices to New Highs

Discover the top 4 factors driving biodiesel prices to new highs, from increased demand and German regulations to supply disruptions.

Palm Oil Hits Yearly High Amid Surging Brent Crude Prices

Palm oil prices hit a yearly high as Brent crude oil surges by 12.1%, driven by Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions.

Lower Sugar Production Forecasts: Where Will Q1 2025 Supply Come From?

Brazil’s recent drought and fires have reduced sugar production estimates for the 2024/25 season to 39 MMT, down from 40 MMT.

EUDR-compliant S.G. Low Moah Crude Palm Oil Benchmark Rises Week-Over-Week

Discover the latest trends driving Vesper's EUDR-compliant S.G. Low Moah Crude Palm Oil Benchmark upwards.

Vegetable Oils Prices Down as Brent Crude Oil Hits Lowest Level This Year

Brent crude oil hits a yearly low, leading to a decline in palm oil, soybean oil, and other vegetable oil benchmarks. View the latest prices.

Will CBOT Soybean Oil's Bearish Price Trends Persist Following WASDE's Bearish Soy Update?

Uncover the reasons behind the CBOT soybean oil price drop and how supply, farmer actions, and market sentiment could impact future prices.

How will India’s and Brazil’s Sugar Production Projections Impact Global Prices?

Learn how India’s and Brazil’s sugar production forecasts may impact global prices, and explore Vesper’s price forecast predictions.

Weather Drives Volatility in CBOT Soybean Prices: Discover Vesper's AI-Driven Price Forecasts for the Next Six Months

Discover how weather and geopolitical events are impacting CBOT soybean prices, and learn what Vesper's price forecasts are predicting.

Biodiesel Prices Drop from Highs Amid LSGO Decline

Despite a recent decline, biodiesel values remain elevated, influenced by the Israel-Hamas conflict and OPEC+'s production decisions.

Prices for Biodiesel Fall due to High Crude Oil Supply

Understand the impact of high crude oil supplies, gasoil market shifts, and feedstock price declines on biodiesel markets.

Vegetable oils, except palm oil, have weakened since the last report, influenced by the Red Sea crisis and a bumper soybean supply.

Impact of Red Sea Crisis and Bumper Supply of Soybeans: Weakend Vegetable oils, compared to the previous report.

Soybean oil complex strengthens on massive new Phillips 66 renewable diesel plant

Explore how the soybean oil complex strengthens on the massive new Phillips 66 renewable diesel plant and more...

Biodiesel market update: Growing interest to buy, yet making consensus on pricing remains a challenge

Biodiesel market update: Explore the impact of higher LSGO prices and buying demand on the biodiesel complex

Vegetable oil market update: Global palm oil and soybean oil prices up on bullish MPOB and neutral-slightly bullish WASDE report

Vegetable oil market update: Discover the impact of increased Brent Crude Oil prices and bullish MPOB and WASDE report on prices