Vegetable oil market update: the vegetable oil market has strengthened, particularly palm and soybean oil, since the last report. The MPOB report and increased Brent Crude Oil prices contributed to the rise in global palm oil prices. Additionally, Chicago soybean oil prices increased due to bullish estimates from the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) and the neutral-slightly bullish WASDE report for soy oil.

In December, MPOB reported statistics for Palm Oil Supply and Demand (in metric tons): production decreased by 13.31% to 1,550,797, exports decreased by 5.12% to 1,334,441, domestic consumption dropped by 21.90% to 364,373, and ending stocks decreased by 4.65% to 2,291,167. Also, on January 15, the price of Brent Crude Oil increased from $76 to $78 per barrel due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. These factors led to a rise in the settlement price of Crude Palm Oil (Jan 24) on the BMD, increasing from €724 | $791 per metric ton on January 8 to €736 | $807 per metric ton on January 15.

European traders informed Vesper that physical prices on the continent closely followed the BMD, with sluggish demand attributed to the narrow discount to bean oil. Confirmed by Vesper’s monitoring which indicated an increase in all crude palm and crude palm kernel oil:

  • The Vesper West EU Forward Price Index for Crude Palm Oil (2024-01-15) rose to €895 | $980 per metric ton (CIF Rotterdam, Mar) from €856 | $938 per metric ton the previous week.
  • The Vesper West EU Forward Price Index for Crude Palm Kernel Oil (2024-01-15) increased to €895 | $980 per metric ton (CIF Rotterdam, Mar-Apr) from €866 | $948 per metric ton the previous week.


Similarly, soybean oil prices increased due to bullish NOPA estimates and a moderately bullish WASDE report. NOPA’s December US soybean crush estimates ranged from 189.0 million to 197.380 million bushels, with a median of 193.2 million bushels. Soyoil supplies held by NOPA’s members as of December 31 were forecasted at 1.291 billion lbs, with soyoil stocks estimated between 1.190 billion and 1.350 billion lbs, and a median of 1.289 billion lbs.

WASDE’s soybeans 2023/24 numbers included global ending stocks at 114.60 million metric tons (mmt) compared to the previous forecast of 114.21 mmt and a trade estimate of 111.58 mmt. Argentina’s production was forecasted at 50 mmt, up from 48 mmt previously forecasted and a trade estimate of 48.87 mmt. Brazil’s production was forecasted at 157 mmt, down from 161 mmt previously forecasted and a trade estimate of 156.26 mmt. WASDE soybean oil 2023/24 numbers included a US soy oil biofuel use estimate of 13 billion lbs, up from 12.8 billion lbs, and exports at 300 million lbs, down from 350 million lbs.

Some traders expressed scepticism about the USDA’s data for the South American soybean crop, noting that at least three private forecasters reduced output expectations for Brazil’s soybean crop this month. The bullish estimates from NOPA and the neutral-slightly bullish WASDE report for soy oil reverberated into the soybean oil prices on the futures market and the Vesper Price Index. had a ripple effect on soybean oil prices in both the futures market and the Vesper Price Index. Additionally, traders noted a lack of farmer selling and minimal bean stocks in the country, contributing to price support in both CBOT and the Forward Vesper Price Index:

  • According to CBOT, the settlement price for Soybean Oil (Mar 24) increased from USD cents 47.81 per lb to USD cents 48.25 per lb on January 15 compared to the same period the previous week.
  • The Vesper Argentina Forward Price Index for Crude Soybean Oil (2024-01-15) increased to $865 per metric ton (FOB Up River, Mar) from $857 per metric ton the previous week.

Download our recent Vegetable Oil Highlights to get the vegetable oil market update for the next 30 days, including palm, soybean, rapeseed, sunflower, coconut, and olive oil.