Another interesting week for the global commodities markets. Following the withdrawal from the grain deal, Russia returned to it only a few days later. After having received assurances from Ukraine that the shipping lane will not be used for military purposes, Russia agreed on entering again. The downside of the current deal is its temporariness; it is due to expire on November 19th. As of now, it is rather uncertain what will happen after this day.
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Another important development is the mild autumn weather in Europe. Despite skyrocketing gas prices ever since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it does not seem too bad at the moment. Less gas is needed due to the mild weather and in addition, most European countries have managed to build up sufficient reserves. However, winter is still coming. Prices may rise as soon as the weather starts to cool down in Europe.
Fears of a European recession are still present. Wages are growing moderately but not proportional compared to the inflation rate. Energy prices have plummeted after the peak this summer, but it is highly uncertain what prices will do in the upcoming winter. Due to the exceptionally tight labor market, production is limited to a record low in the service and manufacturing sectors. In brief: despite hopeful news in the short term it is extremely difficult to predict what will happen in the coming weeks.
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