Europe’s grain markets firmed over the past two weeks as hot, dry weather raised worries about yields, even as US futures fell under harvest pressure and a sliding crude oil price. The split left European wheat and corn climbing while their Chicago counterparts drifted lower.
On MATIF, September milling wheat rose to €206 a tonne from €201 two weeks earlier, helped by heat across western Europe and a cut to Russia’s crop forecast from analyst Sovecon, now at 88.9 million tonnes on a smaller planted area, the smallest Russian wheat area since 2014. MARS nudged its EU soft wheat yield estimate down to 6.00 t/ha. In the US, the picture was softer: CBOT HRW wheat slipped to 618 cents a bushel as the winter wheat harvest ran well ahead of average at 40% complete, though crop condition at 26% good-to-excellent remains below the five-year norm.
Corn showed the same divide. Euronext corn climbed to €221 a tonne, recovering from €210, after MARS warned that high temperatures and limited rain through late June would intensify crop stress, and France cut its corn area estimate sharply to 1.31 million hectares, down 19% on the year. CBOT corn fell to 410 cents a bushel on healthy US crop conditions, steady at 68% good-to-excellent, and a Brent price that has dropped to around $77 a barrel from $94 two weeks earlier.
Barley held broadly steady, with the IGC sub-index back at 224. EU prospects improved as MARS lifted its winter barley yield forecast, France’s crop is seen up 8% on the year, and early Ukrainian results showed yields well above recent seasons. Soybeans eased on CBOT to 1,117 cents a bushel, weighed down by ample global supply, a near-complete Argentine harvest and a US crop rated 66% good-to-excellent.
Vesper’s near-term view leans toward harvest pressure outweighing weather worries through July and August, generating price declines, before lower expected 2026/27 supply lends support later in the year. For now, the heat over western Europe is the factor keeping a floor under EU values.
For the full market analysis, visit: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/3137?commodity=grains-and-feed
