Indian basmati prices have moved higher over the past three weeks, with 1509 Steam rising to USD 90 to USD 91/quintal from USD 82 to USD 83/quintal at the end of March, and 1718 Sela climbing to USD 94 to USD 96/quintal.
Paddy output across Haryana, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Rajasthan is down 28 to 30% this season, and closer to 40 to 42% once broken and waterlogged grain from the July floods on the Satluj, Beas and Jhelum rivers is excluded. Punjab mills are no longer managing low stock levels but operating without stock, with mills that previously ran on 20-day credit now demanding advance payment before releasing rice. Fresh market arrivals are running at around 20% of normal, and farmers holding stock are quoting USD 4 to USD 5 per quintal above the mandi rate.
The demand picture is complicated by shipping. The Gulf cluster, comprising Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Jordan, Bahrain, Iran and Iraq, takes roughly 70% of Indian basmati exports. The Strait of Hormuz blockade that began on 2 March held competitive cargo at Indian ports for 45 to 46 days before exporters resumed shipping in early April. Iran reopened the Strait on 17 April and closed it again within 24 hours on 18 April. As of 20 April, traffic remains far below normal and shipping companies are not treating the waterway as reliably open.
Current FOB prices: 1121 Steam and 1121 Golden at USD 1,105/MT, 1121 Creamy at USD 1,055/MT, 1509 Steam at USD 1,045/MT, 1509 Golden at USD 1,025/MT and 1509 Creamy at USD 975/MT.
The broader rice picture is more comfortable. The FAO’s global rice price index fell 3% in March to 100.1 points. Vietnam is chasing new buyers after traditional customers rebuilt their own stocks. Thailand’s 5% broken is at USD 370 to USD 375/MT, while India’s comparable grades are holding at USD 336 to USD 348/MT. That index captures non-basmati supply reasonably well, although it offers limited guidance for basmati specifically. The kharif sowing picture will not begin to shift until June.
For the full rice market analysis, visit: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/2915