Euronext milling wheat for September climbed to EUR 227/mt from EUR 223/mt two weeks earlier, and CBOT wheat moved up in step, with both HRW and SRW contracts gaining close to 6%. The support is coming from the same place it has for weeks: the Black Sea. Ukraine’s agricultural exports collapsed to just 794,000 tonnes in the first half of August, against 3.67 million tonnes for the whole of July, as port damage and attacks on vessels disrupt shipping. SovEcon has cut its forecast for Russia’s August wheat exports sharply below year-ago levels, and Russia’s agriculture ministry is now working to redirect flows through the Baltic, Caspian and Far East, all of which add cost. With no diplomatic effort underway to resolve the disruption, both countries are expected to see further export losses through August, and dry soils are now also delaying winter wheat planting across Europe.
Corn is trading on the same dynamic. Euronext corn rose to EUR 258/mt from EUR 250/mt, supported by the Black Sea disruption alongside a damaged EU crop: the IGC expects EU corn production to fall to its lowest since 2022/23. In the US, the Pro Farmer crop tour found corn yields in Nebraska and Indiana running below both last year’s tour average and the three-year average, and the USDA trimmed its global stock estimate as consumption growth outpaced production. Soybeans rallied further still, with CBOT beans supported by continued Chinese buying, reported at around 7 million tonnes of US soybeans so far, even as Pro Farmer pod counts came in below both last year and the three-year average in the same two states, and the USDA’s own crop condition rating slipped week on week. Barley firmed alongside the rest of the complex, with a comfortable global supply outlook offset by support from expensive wheat, corn and soybeans.
The near-term outlook still hinges on the Black Sea. Without a resolution, the disruption to Russian and Ukrainian exports could constrain global wheat supply by more than current pricing reflects, keeping the near-term bias sideways to higher. Corn’s seasonal pattern points the other way: EU and Ukrainian harvesting in early September should bring fresh supply to market and could pull prices back from current levels, even if tighter underlying supply and costlier logistics limit how far that pullback runs.
